Good article about Rogers, why he has struggled and what they are changing

[Sports Guy]

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

IT'S A BAD TRADE NO MATTER WHAT

/s  

[Satyr3206]

I have had back problems for a long time and it really affects you. I would imagine for a Professional baseball player that would be magnified about 1000%.

[interloper]

Fingers crossed. 

[Fiver6565]

This guy could win back to back Cy Youngs and there would still be people here overreacting to how 'bad' this trade was.  The vitriol over it has always been way over the top.

[jamalshw]

I think they need to approach Rogers as not being a solution. If he ends up being one, all the better. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

This guy could win back to back Cy Youngs and there would still be people here overreacting to how 'bad' this trade was.  The vitriol over it has always been way over the top.

That’s because some people think Norby is the new Bobby Grich when he’s far more likely to be Keston Huira

Edited November 27 by Sports Guy

[Tony-OH]

It's a good article documenting his struggles and talking about his back issues. I remain skeptical though that suddenly from reading a book and getting a new weight lifting routine from the Orioles will somehow solve his back problems.

Until I see him pitching with the velocity he had a few years ago with improved secondaries, I'm going to think he's more of a backup plan for the rotation than someone penciled into the 2025 rotation. 

Obviously we all should be rooting for this to work, but until we see the difference on the mound, it's just fluff.

[HowAboutThat]

I don’t know the mechanics of pitching, but if he had back problems that caused his velocity loss, why didn’t he go on the IL? The claim that he had back pain that affected his performance for three seasons yet never dealt with it is a bit odd, considering how physically aware these guys are.

And there was no mention of any medical issues after the trade, so either they were so insignificant it wasn’t worth mentioning, or Elias knew of problems and made the trade anyway, neither of which seems very likely. 
At the moment, this seems just like grasping at straws.

I hope he does fix whatever ails him,  and if he does, I’ll switch camps, but til then I’m in the “terrible trade” group.

Edited November 27 by HowAboutThat

[Tony-OH]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s because some people think Norby is the new Bobby Grich when he’s far more likely to be Keston Huira

Potentially, but don't rule out him turning into a Dan Uggla-type. He doesn't have great bat speed and still think a move to the outfield is his best chance at being decent defensively, but he can get into some baseballs and has a knack for barreling the ball.

Stowers really struggled after he trade, but his underlying hitting metrics suggest he still has a chance to improve into a usable hitter. I've been on the Stowers train for awhile and while it's getting lonely there, I'm giving him one more year before saying he's a bust at the major league level.  

 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Potentially, but don't rule out him turning into a Dan Uggla-type. He doesn't have great bat speed and still think a move to the outfield is his best chance at being decent defensively, but he can get into some baseballs and has a knack for barreling the ball.

Stowers really struggled after he trade, but his underlying hitting metrics suggest he still has a chance to improve into a usable hitter. I've been on the Stowers train for awhile and while it's getting lonely there, I'm giving him one more year before saying he's a bust at the major league level.  

 

Both could be good players…both are likely to not be. 
 

The whining over this trade is and was over the top.

[Pickles]

46 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It's a good article documenting his struggles and talking about his back issues. I remain skeptical though that suddenly from reading a book and getting a new weight lifting routine from the Orioles will somehow solve his back problems.

Until I see him pitching with the velocity he had a few years ago with improved secondaries, I'm going to think he's more of a backup plan for the rotation than someone penciled into the 2025 rotation. 

Obviously we all should be rooting for this to work, but until we see the difference on the mound, it's just fluff.

This article immediately brings to mind the reports last off-season/spring of Irvin changing his diet and being in the best shape of his life, etc.

A reminder: https://www.masnsports.com/blog/slimmer-irvin-hopes-to-put-up-stronger-early-numbers-for-orioles

So yeah, this is typical off-season fluff, and means little to nothing in the long-term.

I will say there's no way the Orioles are penciling Rodgers into a rotation spot or even a roster spots.

They will sign/trade for a starter this off-season and they'll go into the season with 4 locks for the rotation.

The 5th spot will be a competition between Povich, Suarez, and Rodgers.

Frankly, Rodgers is last on that list as of now imo.

[LookitsPuck]

I'm extremely bearish on Rogers. But, shouldn't be a surprise, I was extremely bearish on him when they traded for him. Only to see his velocity somehow get worse with the O's. He was barely hitting 92 with the Marlins, then in short order he was barely hitting 90 with the O's. None of his pitches were plus pitches last year. And then when he was sent down, his velocity got worse, basically averaging around 88mph. 

Can the O's get him to gain 4-6 mph back on his fastball and/or be a soft contact groundball pitcher? Because that's what it is going to take. He's a soft tossing lefty who somehow managed to have just as bad (if not worse) Statcast numbers than Cole Irvin.

I like the O's staff when it comes to "fixing" mechanics. But Rogers has a lot going against him. His SO/BB rate is one of the worst in baseball. Last year it was 1.7. It was 1.2 with the O's. His strikeout rate has went down every single year since he debuted, but for a minor bump in 2023. The trajectory is worrisome: 12.5, 10.6, 8.9, 9.5, 7.0 (2024) and a middling 5.7 with the O's. He allows far too much contact. Way too many hits. And with the LF wall coming in? He's going to really have to rely on a plus infield defense and groundballs. He *could* get back to his 2023 numbers and have a plus groundball rate, but last year he was around league average.

The O's need to consider him deep depth and not a first lever. He can not be given a rotation spot to start the year. 

Edited November 27 by LookitsPuck

[interloper]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm extremely bearish on Rogers. But, shouldn't be a surprise, I was extremely bearish on him when they traded for him. Only to see his velocity somehow get worse with the O's. He was barely hitting 92 with the Marlins, then in short order he was barely hitting 90 with the O's. None of his pitches were plus pitches last year. And then when he was sent down, his velocity got worse, basically averaging around 88mph. 

Can the O's get him to gain 4-6 mph back on his fastball? Because that's what it is going to take. He's a soft tossing lefty who somehow managed to have just as bad (if not worse) Statcast numbers than Cole Irvin.

I like the O's staff when it comes to "fixing" mechanics. But Rogers has a lot going against him. His SO/BB rate is one of the worst in baseball. Last year it was 1.7. It was 1.2 with the O's. His strikeout rate has went down every single year since he debuted, but for a minor bump in 2023. The trajectory is worrisome: 12.5, 10.6, 8.9, 9.5, 7.0 (2024) and a middling 5.7 with the O's. He allows far too much contact. Way too many hits. And with the LF wall coming in? He's going to really have to rely on a plus infield defense and groundballs. He *could* get back to his 2023 numbers and have a plus groundball rate, but last year he was around league average.

I can't tell if you like him or not.

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

I'm extremely bearish on Rogers. But, shouldn't be a surprise, I was extremely bearish on him when they traded for him. Only to see his velocity somehow get worse with the O's. He was barely hitting 92 with the Marlins, then in short order he was barely hitting 90 with the O's. None of his pitches were plus pitches last year. And then when he was sent down, his velocity got worse, basically averaging around 88mph. 

Can the O's get him to gain 4-6 mph back on his fastball and/or be a soft contact groundball pitcher? Because that's what it is going to take. He's a soft tossing lefty who somehow managed to have just as bad (if not worse) Statcast numbers than Cole Irvin.

I like the O's staff when it comes to "fixing" mechanics. But Rogers has a lot going against him. His SO/BB rate is one of the worst in baseball. Last year it was 1.7. It was 1.2 with the O's. His strikeout rate has went down every single year since he debuted, but for a minor bump in 2023. The trajectory is worrisome: 12.5, 10.6, 8.9, 9.5, 7.0 (2024) and a middling 5.7 with the O's. He allows far too much contact. Way too many hits. And with the LF wall coming in? He's going to really have to rely on a plus infield defense and groundballs. He *could* get back to his 2023 numbers and have a plus groundball rate, but last year he was around league average.

We don't have a plus infield defense.

I think we're trending towards below average, depending on how much Holliday plays.

It concerns me.