Rushing to judgement

[BringBackMagic]

We are more than a month away from draft and only two weeks into the MLB season and there are already a few things concerning me about comments about specific players from posters on this board. I was reading the Ackley thread and found a poster saying that he's counting on this year's 2nd round pick being better than last years, Xavier Avery.

How can we be saying things like this already? Avery was drafted as a toolsy project. I was shocked to see him in Delmarva. I had him penciled in as the centerfielder for the IronBirds and still think he'd benefit from more time in Sarasota, refining his craft, than striking out and being overmatched in A-Ball.

But this isn't about Avery. This is about people in general rushing to judgement about players in this finicky sport of baseball. Two years ago, Brandon Snyder was completely written off as a draft bust. Now, he's one of our best offensive prospects, crushing the ball in Bowie and figured as a future major leaguer. On another thread we are asking if we'd trade him straight up for Justin Smoak. Honestly, I don't know if it's as open and shut a case as everybody else thought. The two players were born a month apart, one when to college, the other when straight to the pros. Smoak was drafted 11th, Snyder was drafted 13th. Right now, at the same age, they are at the same level putting up similar numbers. While Smoak may be better long term, it seems he is the one everybody wants because he's the hot name for the last year and we'd rather jump for the new thing than wait out for Snyder who is progressing at a fairly reasonable rate.

Then we have Billy Rowell. I'm not going to call him a bust. I'll call him a disappointment. He could still be a major leaguer, but will likely not be of the caliber we hoped when we drafted him. But my overall reaction to a first rounder not panning out? Oh well. It happens and just because one doesn't work out doesn't mean our system is broken and our franchise is in ruins. The majority of first rounders don't pan out. Rowell was a big, powerful, projectable bat and when we took him, it was the right pick at the time.

Now heading into June 9, I'm sure we'll have read everything available on every player that we could take. We've hyperanalyzed and found every potential flaw with Strasburg, Green, Ackley, Matzek, Purke, etc. And half the board will probably be angry depending on who we take and then call for McPhail's head for another draft "wasted." Fact is, we don't know how this draft is going to turn out until 2012 at the earliest. If we pull in 40 some players and 3 of them end up in our Top 10 prospects three years from now, we can say it was fairly successful. And if two of those three end up in the majors, it's a success. And if one of those two end up being a starter for five seasons, it's a major success.

I've waited 11 seasons for a winning team and I'm not broken. I'm patient, and I'm not going anywhere as an O's fan. I love this board because there is so much passion, but I really get sick and kinda depressed at the pessimistic venom spit sometimes in regards to players and decision makers within the franchse. Let's sit back and wait for once because no matter how many people on here clamor for a given player, our scouts know more than we ever will. In them, I trust.

[DocJJ]

however, bear in mind lousy scouting and drafting has largely gotten us into this mess (prior to Jordan's drafts) and we have all seen what good scouting and drafting can accomplish (Tampa Bay).

I think this is why many of us get so upset when we see our high draft choices struggling so much....