What did DT do wrong tonight?

[BaltBound]

At least tonight it was on a 3-2 pitch and not the damn 3-1 hit and run Trembley usually calls.

Trembley had him running on the 3-1 pitch as well, but Mora fouled it off.

[Burg]

Not using Pie as a pinch runner was borderline indefensible. Sending Huff on 3-1 AND 3-2 was just asinine.

The more I see of DT's lineup and in-game decisions, the less I think that he'll be the manager if/when we become a competitive team.

[Three Run Homer]

How many times has Huff been caught stealing this year on a botched hit and run with Mora at the plate? I think it's at least three. I can understand why DT is concerned about Mora hitting into a double play, but Mora is not a good contact hitter and Huff is slow as molasses--the hit and run makes no sense.

The problem is that Huff on the bases and Mora at the plate is a bad combination--you have a slow baserunner and an even slower right handed hitter who is prone to the GIDP. Trembley is trying to manage his way out of the problem with small ball but his strategy is backfiring.

The real solution is to shuffle the lineup. Mora is not a middle of the order hitter at this stage of his career. I'd like to see Weiters hitting 2nd once he settles in a little; Jones could hit cleanup, then you could have Huff-Reimold-Scott. Or you could swap Jones and Markakis in the order, and have Scott hitting after Huff instead of Mora.

[RustyMcNail]

The evidence appears to support the idea that Trembley doesn't believe or doesn't care about the true (and rather large) costs of being caught stealing versus the relatively slight benefits of a stolen base or a successful hit and run.

Instead of a steal being worth, say, 1/3 of a run and a caught costing maybe 2/3rds it seems Trembley values them the other way around.

Dave needs to read "The Hidden Game of Baseball" by Palmer and Thorn.

[LookitsPuck]

Managers are generally disinclined to remove their clean-up hitter late in a tie game.

Uhm, no. I've watched my fair share of Red Sox games over the years, and I can recall countless times Francona removed Ortiz for a faster runner.

[DrungoHazewood]

Back in the early 90s there was a computer game called Earl Weaver Baseball, many of you have probably played it. Earl actually contributed to the strategy choices and managerial options, which were astounding for that point in computer history. One of the options was to use what Earl called the "run and hit", which I'd never heard of before.

In the little book that came with the game Earl explained that he almost never used the hit and run, since you'd be hanging the runner out to dry if the batter couldn't make contact. And that would waste an out, and Earl always said your most precious assets in a ballgame are your 27 outs. Instead of doing this he'd use the run and hit when it made sense. This was sending the runner with the full intent of stealing the base, and the batter would approach the pitch as though no one was on. If it was a bad pitch he'd just take it, and if it was a good one he'd swing away. You'd almost never run this with a guy like Huff, since the chances of him stealing a base is negligible.

I like Earl a lot.

[DrungoHazewood]

Dave needs to read "The Hidden Game of Baseball" by Palmer and Thorn.

To start. Then move on to more advanced topics like Tom Tango's "The Book" and BP's "Baseball Between the Numbers."

Actually, I'd be a bit surprised if Trembley wasn't at least a little familiar with some of those already.

[CrimsonTribe]

Back in the early 90s there was a computer game called Earl Weaver Baseball, many of you have probably played it. Earl actually contributed to the strategy choices and managerial options, which were astounding for that point in computer history. One of the options was to use what Earl called the "run and hit", which I'd never heard of before.

In the little book that came with the game Earl explained that he almost never used the hit and run, since you'd be hanging the runner out to dry if the batter couldn't make contact. And that would waste an out, and Earl always said your most precious assets in a ballgame are your 27 outs. Instead of doing this he'd use the run and hit when it made sense. This was sending the runner with the full intent of stealing the base, and the batter would approach the pitch as though no one was on. If it was a bad pitch he'd just take it, and if it was a good one he'd swing away. You'd almost never run this with a guy like Huff, since the chances of him stealing a base is negligible.

I like Earl a lot.

Trembley is no Earl, that's for sure.

[LookitsPuck]

This is a subtle but important point. The hit and run looks great when it works but just think about it. The hit and run forces the hitter to most likely swing at a pitch he wouldn't normally swing at, depending on the count. I would say, that even on a 3-2 pitch that some hitters may feel more pressure to swing at a bordeline pitch if they no the runner is hung out to dry on a called 3rd strike.

That and use a hitter who can actually make contact with the pitch. Mora's bat has slowed down tremendously, and he can't catch up to the 97+ mph fastballs.

[RustyMcNail]

To start. Then move on to more advanced topics like Tom Tango's "The Book" and BP's "Baseball Between the Numbers."

True that. The reason I mentioned the Thorn/Palmer book is because it was the first one I remember that actually quantified the percentages required for the stolen base to be worthwhile. It was one of groundbreaking books on sabermetrics, along with the Baseball Abstracts.

[AZRon]

With 1 out, the bases loaded, and Beltre at bat

I think Trembley had all of the infielders at "half-way"

Among others, his choices included:

all up on the infield grass

in on the right side, back on the left side or vice versa

"double play" depth all around

"double play" depth on the left side, in on the right side

"normal" positioning for Beltre

What do the stats say about playing your fielders "out of position" when the game is on the line?

[RShack]

Trembley is no Earl, that's for sure.

Nobody buy Earl is Earl. Most managers don't do anything to make the game different. Earl left his mark on the game in multiple ways. Unless you stop and think about it, it's not instantly obvious how rare that is. Earl was special for way more reasons than just yelling at ump's. He affected the game in ways that 99.9% of managers never do. You know how Jeter is both excellent and over-rated at once? Well, Earl is both legendary and under-appreciated at the same time.

[Jules]

You know how Jeter is both excellent and over-rated at once? Well, Earl is both legendary and under-appreciated at the same time.

I have a headache after digesting that. Jeter and Weaver in the same post.

[RShack]

I have a headache after digesting that. Jeter and Weaver in the same post.

But at opposite ends of the point ;-)

[bluedog]

Down 9 - 4, bases loaded in the late innings with the O's working hard to make up 9 run deficit and Zaun due up. Clearly it's the perfect time to - leave Zaun in to hit for himself and strike out on three straight pitches?

Not sure but I think we may have had a better option on the bench. Some guy named Weters or something? Can anyone clear this up for me?