Churchill: College arms racking up mileage

[JTrea81]

In Churchill's latest he talks about the abuse that potential first round college arms are taking and it's one of the reasons I want us to avoid a college arm at all costs.

Mike Leake threw 138 pitches in his last outing, and arms like Gibson, Strasburg, White and Oliver have all surpassed the 120 pitch count multiple times this season.

Strasburg in particular threw 120+ pitches for the 9th time this season in his last start. If that isn't a huge red flag, I don't know what is, and it's a reason I would be very wary of picking him first as I think he will have a very short career just like those other college arms.

I think Washington would get crucified for doing it, but a college bat like Ackley is really the safest and best choice for that franchise.

[allstar1579]

In Churchill's latest he talks about the abuse that potential first round college arms are taking and it's one of the reasons I want us to avoid a college arm at all costs.

Mike Leake threw 138 pitches in his last outing, and arms like Gibson, Strasburg, White and Oliver have all surpassed the 120 pitch count multiple times this season.

Strasburg in particular threw 120+ pitches for the 9th time this season in his last start. If that isn't a huge red flag, I don't know what is, and it's a reason I would be very wary of picking him first as I think he will have a very short career just like those other college arms.

I think Washington would get crucified for doing it, but a college bat like Ackley is really the safest and best choice for that franchise.

Would you trade the number 5 pick this year for Tim Lincecum? Straight up?

[JTrea81]

Would you trade the number 5 pick this year for Tim Lincecum? Straight up?

The jury is still out on Lincecum's career as he's only been in the league for a short while. Lincecum also seemingly has unique mechanics that lessen his chance for injury supposedly.

I think he's more the exception than the rule.

[allstar1579]

The jury is still out on Lincecum's career as he's only been in the league for a short while. Lincecum also seemingly has unique mechanics that lessen his chance for injury supposedly.

I think he's more the exception than the rule.

Ok might not be the best example, but even with his slight stature, he threw over 150 pitches in games several times in college. He seems to be doing pretty well for himself. I'm sure there are other guys out there that have thrown tons of pitches in college and gone on to be durable in the pros.

[TJ Wrangler]

The jury is still out on Lincecum's career as he's only been in the league for a short while. Lincecum also seemingly has unique mechanics that lessen his chance for injury supposedly.

I think he's more the exception than the rule.

Everything looks good with Lincecum except for the arm action. He's a bit of an elbow lifter and his timing is off as a result. I'm not sure how much of that will actually impact him, because he uses his core better than anyone else in the game.

[Stotle]

Strasburg will only need to be healthy for a couple of years to be worth his likely bonus, provided he performs like a front-end starter.

[JTrea81]

Strasburg will only need to be healthy for a couple of years to be worth his likely bonus, provided he performs like a front-end starter.

True but Washington needs a cornerstone player. Strasburg seems like he would benefit a more competitive team, than be a piece to build around simply because of his impending short career.

If I was going to compete I'd draft Strasburg to be a weapon for me for the next 2-3 years, but Washington needs somebody for the next 6-10.

[Crazysilver03]

True but Washington needs a cornerstone player. Strasburg seems like he would benefit a more competitive team, than be a piece to build around simply because of his impending short career.

If I was going to compete I'd draft Strasburg to be a weapon for me for the next 2-3 years, but Washington needs somebody for the next 6-10.

While Strasburg is getting a lot of wear and tear this season, Rizzo stated that he would shut Strasburg down, regardless of when he signed, to make sure he is healthy moving forward.

[JTrea81]

While Strasburg is getting a lot of wear and tear this season, Rizzo stated that he would shut Strasburg down, regardless of when he signed, to make sure he is healthy moving forward.

That won't take away all those pitches that he's thrown though. The damage has already been done.

[allstar1579]

That won't take away all those pitches that he's thrown though. The damage has already been done.

Ok...let's try again.

Nolan Ryan. Greatest pitcher of our era (depending on your age) pitched for 26 seasons. In 1972, he pitched 284 innings, and AVERAGED 121 pitches per game. In '73 he started 39 games, and AVERAGED 134 pitches per game. In '77 he threw 299 innings, and AVERAGED 142 pitches per game.

I'll spare you typing out a list of guys that would pitch many years, many innings, and average 100+ pitches per start, but I'll give you a linky to a cool chart with a bunch of guys and the pitch counts they averaged per game through their careers.

There are tons of factors that can lead to injuries in pitchers, high pitch counts are not necessarily one of them. (poor mechanics, not enough rest between starts are definitely a few) It is a correlation that some of the guys that get hurt have had high pitch counts, but it is not causation that high pitch counts = injuries and short careers. Again, you can't go preaching that your personal opinion (which is fine) is fact.

[panick]

Price had several games at Vanderbilt in which he threw over 130 pitches. He looked at it as a way to strengthen his arm.

It probably doesn't matter much, because once these guys make it to the major leagues, they'll be taken out of the games when they reach 100 pitches!