Xavier Avery

[Frobby]

I can't believe I'm even saying this, but if his June is as good as his May, is there any chance that Avery sees an in-season promotion to A+ this year?

I would say no. Let him have a full, successful year at Delmarva at age 19. He's got plenty to work on at that level.

[LookinUp]

I would say no. Let him have a full, successful year at Delmarva at age 19. He's got plenty to work on at that level.

That's what I would think too, but consider these May stats for 18 games and 64 ABs:

OBP - .452

OPS - 1.061

BB - 7

K - 11

He might have less to work on than we all had assumed.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Jeez, I just looked at what Carl Crawford did when he was 19 - they might project similarly, but Crawford was WAY ahead of the game as a 19 year old.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/carl-crawford.shtml

Wow, Crawford was a young HSer. Aug. 5 birthdate; he was still 17 when he graduated and signed his first pro contract, and he got almost 300 PA in rookie league ball that summer.

His 19 YO season was at AA in the Southern League. It's not like he was a huge success: .274/.323/.352 (.675). Caught stealing 20 times in 56 tries. A lot of organizations would have held him back after a year with those numbers. But Tampa Bay promoted him, and he was in the show next summer.

[bird watcher]

He's made dramatic improvement from April to May. However, he's made 4 errors in the OF and his stolen base percentage is not good for a guy with his speed. Plenty to work on. I don't think there's much to gain by sending him to Frederick this year. If he keeps it up, he's going to have a tremendous 1st full season from which to build. It would be pretty amazing if you were to get into the top ten hitters in the league and even make a run at a batting title. A long shot but not impossible if he keeps hitting like he has.

Working on the base-running is reason enough to leave him where he is. He is more likely to get on base at a regular clip in Delmarva than he would be in Frederick. I also think there is something to be said for the confidence that comes from being one of the best in the league.

[hoosiers]

As I posted yesterday, Avery is currently producing where we would like him to be in May. I would not be surprised if guys with lesser stats are promoted. Avery does need to improve his baserunning and apparently his defense.

It would be somewhat unusual to see a HSer get promoted to High A in the year after being drafted - it might only happen once or twice a season, but obviously, Avery would be promotion-worthy if he maintains the 400 obp and and ops north of 850 into July, IMO.

[LookinUp]

Are you sure about the 4 errors? I think I'm seeing that he has 2 errors this year. Maybe I'm misreading things.

Re: baserunning...I don't think I've ever heard of holding a guy back because he was caught stealing a few times. The primary things that young players typically need to work on are hitting and defense. Avery could easily continue to work on defense at the next level, and he may need to go to the next level if he's far and beyond the competition at this level. I know that's a big if by the way. This discussion is predicated on the idea that he continues to put up a 1.000 OPS and great BB/K rates over the next month.

I also think that A+ is a fine place to work on baserunning. Sure there's a difference between A- and A+ pitchers/catchers, but that difference isn't that dramatic.

I don't know...it feels like people are fishing for reasons to take it slow with this guy. I'm usually all for that, but if his bat says he's ready to move, I don't see a good reason to hold him back.

[LookinUp]

Minor League Baseball has him with 4. That's what I was going by.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=t_ibp&cid=548&stn=true&sid=t548

Again, I think there's a confidence issue with all players. Let him enjoy being one of the better players in the league while still working on things he's not better at before challenging him again.

You are correct. I was looking at 2008 stats. 2009 aren't posted in thebaseballcube page I was looking at.

Re confidence...wouldn't a mid-season promotion help his confidence too?

By the way, I respect where you're coming from because you're making good points. I'm as disappointed as anyone about the O's organization-wide lack of fundamentals. I just think the things you're talking about are secondary to promoting a young bat who may be more advanced than anyone thought.

He should be working on getting a good jump and defense no matter where he is.

Whatever, it makes for an interesting debate. Either way, I'm psyched about this kid. He's jumping up prospect charts right now for sure.

[Stotle]

I'm probably more conservative than a lot of posters with regards to promoting Minor Leaguers in-season, so it's no surprise I'd be against promoting Avery right now.

In addition to the solid points RZNJ has made, I'll add that I think you need to let a player take a couple tours through the teams. Show he can make adjustments (because the pitching will) and show for an extended period of time that the general skill level of the league is below the player.

It's the same argument I'd use for not promoting Snyder. While it's not a good idea to let someone wallow at too low a level, I'd much rather err on the conservative side than put myself in a position where I promote someone and find out two months later that the player wasn't ready.

Finally, Avery's age allows BAL to take it a little more slowly with his development. Why not utilize the time you have to shape the player into the best possible CF? I don't think there is a compelling argument for pushing him quickly.

[Ruzious]

I'm usually more aggressive, but I would keep him where he is because of his age and because he has not dominated for enough time to say he's earned a promotion. It'd be premature to even consider promoting him at this point.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Look at any successful 20- or 21-YO in MLB (and I know, there aren't many) and you'll find that somewhere along the line, somebody decided to challenge his talent. Probably more than once.

The Orioles did that with Avery this spring, and look how he seems to have responded. There's not a great deal of luck involved in dramatically cutting down your K rate; you either have the ability to make contact against the pitching at your level, or you don't. I would like to see Avery sustain this for another month, but by the end of June if he is still getting on base and showing some pop, I would move him up. That gives him two months to adjust. If he hits the wall, so be it; he can try again next year. But if he figures things out by August, then you know you have something special on your hands.

The kid obviously has talent. Give it legs, let it run.

[BmoreRaven]

I would probably err on the side of caution in promoting him due to his age and he did not necessarily push the issue with his play last season. We also are in a position where the MLB team is fairly set long-term in the OF so the team can afford to be patient with OF prospects and let them develop at appropriate levels.

However, the team seemed to see something in Avery (maybe both mentally and skills-wise) to push him to Delmarva to start the season. Maybe he's a guy that thrives on being pushed and is quick to improve and adjust.

I think I'd be fine either way. He'd have to pretty much keep up his OPS and his BB/K rate though.

[Stotle]

Look at any successful 20- or 21-YO in MLB (and I know, there aren't many) and you'll find that somewhere along the line, somebody decided to challenge his talent. Probably more than once.

The Orioles did that with Avery this spring, and look how he seems to have responded. There's not a great deal of luck involved in dramatically cutting down your K rate; you either have the ability to make contact against the pitching at your level, or you don't. I would like to see Avery sustain this for another month, but by the end of June if he is still getting on base and showing some pop, I would move him up. That gives him two months to adjust. If he hits the wall, so be it; he can try again next year. But if he figures things out by August, then you know you have something special on your hands.

The kid obviously has talent. Give it legs, let it run.

I guess my counter would be that he's already be pushed/challenged and asked to do what most 18 year olds aren't. I'd keep him at LoA all year regardless of performance. If he has a monster year at LoA, that would be great. He'll have tons of momentum heading into HiA next year, and maybe you then loosen the reigns enough to allow him to push to AA if he tears through Frederick.

I think Fernando Martinez was hurt a little by his aggressive promotions. Even though he's held his own, he's never been given the luxury to just perform and work on his game in lower-pressure situations. At every level he's been young and had to work hard to put up decent numbers against much older competition. That's fine to a point, but why not give Avery the luxury early in his career to go through his first full season in a league where he is in a position to succeed?

[hoosiers]

That's fine to a point, but why not give Avery the luxury early in his career to go through his first full season in a league where he is in a position to succeed?

Let's face it - Suddenly, Avery is starting to show as good plate discipline as any three or four guys in the organization. I do not know if this will continue, but if Avery continues to post an obp well north of 400 (not saying he will), it would not appear that he's being challenged.

This would be a pretty rare promotion for a HSer, but, IMO, Avery would be promotion worthy if his current pace of production is maintained.

[Stotle]

Let's face it - Suddenly, Avery is starting to show as good plate discipline as any three or four guys in the organization. I do not know if this will continue, but if Avery continues to post an obp well north of 400 (not saying he will), it would not appear that he's being challenged.

This would be a pretty rare promotion for a HSer, but, IMO, Avery would be promotion worthy if his current pace of production is maintained.

Shrug. If the organization thinks it's beneficial for his development to move him up, I'm not going to throw a fit. But I don't think the potential positives of such a move outweigh the potential negatives. He could tackle one level a year and still be in Baltimore by age 22. I'd be much more comfortable with him flying through the upper levels (splitting time between HiA/AA. AA/AAA, or even eventually skipping AAA) than have him essentially skip from Gulf Coast Rookie to HiA in six months or so of professional ball.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Stotle, you're probably right.

I have to admit that a certain part of my approach to Avery is irrational, in that it doesn't have anything to do with Avery specifically. It comes from seeing this organization suddenly produce quality young players after so many years of consistent disappointment. Frankly, I had gotten into the habit of automatically regarding anybody in this system as a suspect instead of a prospect. That might have been overreacting somewhat, but it was also accurate much too often.

It's not accurate any more, though. In the past, I would have figured Avery's turnaround for a fluke. Today I start from the assumption that he is a very talented player who might actually be capable of something as remarkable as a jump from HS to High A in 13 months.

Go O's.