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Xavier Avery


BringBackMagic

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From such a quality poster, this is just a ridiculous statement.

I think it would be nearly impossible to understate the improvement Avery has had from April to May - one look at the total XBHs plus BBs, at the BBs/K, at the K/AB, it's an almost incomprehensible improvement month to month.

Wow.......

My original quote (emphasis added):

Avery's Actual Line (raw stats):

April: .185/.185/.200/.385 (BABIP .286)

May: .393/.460/.625/1.085 (BABIP .467)

Total: .281/.320/.397/.717 (BABIP .379)

Avery's Line Neutralizing for Luck and Park Effects:

April: .246/.246/.262/.508 (BABIP .381)

May: .268/.349/.446/.795 (BABIP .311)

Total: .256/.297/.364/.661 (BABIP .345)

Now, of course this is a cursory glance, and you'd need to do more digging to make a stronger argument. But at this basic level it looks like, while Avery has improved, his improvements may not be as drastic as the raw stats would have us believe. While the stats are nice, I don't want any confusion as to whether or not a player this young is ready when it comes to advancing him two levels above what his age would generally suggest.

1. My post shows one set of data which I label as simple with a need to flesh out.

2. That data shows that the raw stats show improvements of .208/.275/.425 whereas the neutralized stats show improvements of only .122/.103/.184, a difference of .086/.175/.241.

3. My conclusion was that while extremely basic in nature, this discrepency may indicate that the improvement isn't as drastic as the raw stats would have us believe.

If that is a ridiculous statement, well, I think you are too emotionally involved in this issue to step back and look at it objectively. What I said wasn't even a passionate argument for the data, I was just putting it out there as something to keep in mind when we start debating whether or not he's too advanced for the level. I don't come close to saying he hasn't improved or that his improvement hasn't been great...

A difference of .086/.175/.241 is significant, so I think it's worth considering how much weight should be given to the neutralized stats. If you want to see how big a deal that discrepency is subtract it from an all-star and you'd have a 4A-ish guy. Subtract it from an everyday player and you have a never-was. A very rare "Boo" from me for dismissing this as ridiculous -- it's clearly relevant and worth at least considering.

As an aside, another interesting aspect of the data is that it shows he may not have been quite as bad in April as his raw stats showed (though clearly his K-rate was bad no matter how you look at it).

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Wow.......

My original quote (emphasis added):

1. My post shows one set of data which I label as simple with a need to flesh out.

2. That data shows that the raw stats show improvements of .208/.275/.425 whereas the neutralized stats show improvements of only .122/.103/.184, a difference of .086/.175/.241.

3. My conclusion was that while extremely basic in nature, this discrepency may indicate that the improvement isn't as drastic as the raw stats would have us believe.

If that is a ridiculous statement, well, I think you are too emotionally involved in this issue to step back and look at it objectively. What I said wasn't even a passionate argument for the data, I was just putting it out there as something to keep in mind when we start debating whether or not he's too advanced for the level. I don't come close to saying he hasn't improved or that his improvement hasn't been great...

A difference of .086/.175/.241 is significant, so I think it's worth considering how much weight should be given to the neutralized stats. If you want to see how big a deal that discrepency is subtract it from an all-star and you'd have a 4A-ish guy. Subtract it from an everyday player and you have a never-was. A very rare "Boo" from me for dismissing this as ridiculous -- it's clearly relevant and worth at least considering.

As an aside, another interesting aspect of the data is that it shows he may not have been quite as bad in April as his raw stats showed (though clearly his K-rate was bad no matter how you look at it).

I love baseball. one of the many reasons for this are the numbers and stats but far too often are they used to the point that their meanings are so convoluted that they become useless. Numbers can be used to say anything.

How can a statistic realistically "measure" luck. I understand park effects to a point, but I still don't think it really is enough to deter me from excitement about Avery's improvements. The park he is playing in doesn't impact his improved K/BB ratio. It's not like he's hitting for much raw power and a single is a single no matter how deep the fences are. Bigger outfields could lead to additional doubles, but he still needs to put a charge into the ball toward the gaps.

I'm pumped about Avery and hope in two years he'll be in Bowie so it will be easy for me to get to see him play.

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I love baseball. one of the many reasons for this are the numbers and stats but far too often are they used to the point that their meanings are so convoluted that they become useless. Numbers can be used to say anything.

How can a statistic realistically "measure" luck. I understand park effects to a point, but I still don't think it really is enough to deter me from excitement about Avery's improvements. The park he is playing in doesn't impact his improved K/BB ratio. It's not like he's hitting for much raw power and a single is a single no matter how deep the fences are. Bigger outfields could lead to additional doubles, but he still needs to put a charge into the ball toward the gaps.

I'm pumped about Avery and hope in two years he'll be in Bowie so it will be easy for me to get to see him play.

I think the point is that Avery's improvement has been (using hoosiers' words) "almost incomprehensible".

Now, it's possible that he miraculously went from incapable of hitting at all to being one of the best hitters in the league. Or, there is a combination of improvement and a good amount of good fortune -- as well the fact that he wasn't quite as bad in April or quite as good in May as his raw stats indicate.

The good fortune is not going to help him improve his K-rate, BB-rate, etc., but it is more than reasonable to assume it could be the difference between a great improvement and an "almost incomprehensible" improvement.

The neutralized stats showed an improvement of .022/.103/.184. That is very good on its own -- and it shows improvent in OBP and SLG, which you'd expect from the improved K-rate, BB-rate and hitting better pitches in general.

I guess I'm just surprised that more people don't see this as more likely than Avery turning into one of the best hitters in the South Atlantic League over night.

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I think the point is that Avery's improvement has been (using hoosiers' words) "almost incomprehensible".

Now, it's possible that he miraculously went from incapable of hitting at all to being one of the best hitters in the league. Or, there is a combination of improvement and a good amount of good fortune -- as well the fact that he wasn't quite as bad in April or quite as good in May as his raw stats indicate.

The good fortune is not going to help him improve his K-rate, BB-rate, etc., but it is more than reasonable to assume it could be the difference between a great improvement and an "almost incomprehensible" improvement.

The neutralized stats showed an improvement of .022/.103/.184. That is very good on its own -- and it shows improvent in OBP and SLG, which you'd expect from the improved K-rate, BB-rate and hitting better pitches in general.

I guess I'm just surprised that more people don't see this as more likely than Avery turning into one of the best hitters in the South Atlantic League over night.

But why use logic when there's a messianic interpretation available?

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Or, there is a combination of improvement and a good amount of good fortune -- as well the fact that he wasn't quite as bad in April or quite as good in May as his raw stats indicate.

We will have none of you and your 'sense making' around here.

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We will have none of you and your 'sense making' around here.

If a batter Ks 23 times in 65 at bats without a BB, I'm not going to start looking at BABIP numbers to suggest the kid's been "unlucky". Not sure why folks think this poster's discussion here is sensical unless they want to add a "non" to the front.

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Why are you guys even having this argument. Is anybody saying Avery should be promoted right now? Is anybody saying we have enough information right now to decide whether Avery is suddenly too good for the Sally League, or just on a hot streak?

There is some good evidence that Avery has turned a major corner, and there is some good evidence that his May statistics may be exaggerated by park factors and luck. In any event we will know a lot more by the Sally League all-star break, which is the earliest conceivable time that a promotion could be considered. So why don't we just leave it at that?

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If a batter Ks 23 times in 65 at bats without a BB, I'm not going to start looking at BABIP numbers to suggest the kid's been "unlucky". Not sure why folks think this poster's discussion here is sensical unless they want to add a "non" to the front.

Stotle has elaborated his opinion in depth, and has presented them in a polite and respectful manner. You...haven't. All you've done is insult him, and have added nothing to the conversation.

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BABIP is a statistic that means little to me - especially the way they contort here.

The BBs and Ks are a significantly better predictor of major league success. The kid is controlling the strike zone and likely hitting the ball significantly harder than in April.

That is unfortunate. BABIP is the direction most of the research is heading in, especially with Hit F/X coming along. BABIP has a wealth of information in it lying within to tease out. One thing that folks are often confused about is why BABIP is largely consistent for pitchers, but not for batters. The issue there is that a batter is more determinant of hut type than a pitcher is. A pitcher can alter hit type slightly by inducing ground balls or fly balls. A batter can alter hit type based on his plane. A lot more variability there. I think this is one reason why the stat confuses and confounds folks.

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If a batter Ks 23 times in 65 at bats without a BB, I'm not going to start looking at BABIP numbers to suggest the kid's been "unlucky". Not sure why folks think this poster's discussion here is sensical unless they want to add a "non" to the front.

I think you might want to take a break. Seems like you are putting some of your self-worth into this argument.

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I think you might want to take a break. Seems like you are putting some of your self-worth into this argument.

I really am stunned by Avery's turnaround and have tried to share some enthusiam regarding his prospect status with the board. My hopes for Avery as a prospect are the same as for Snyder and Rowell and others and just because I have posted repeatedly about Avery's progress, suggestions that I am heavily invested in this discussion and Avery's progess are not reflective of reality.

The information and hypotheses presented by Stotle, IMO, are of dubious merit in this discussion and, again IMO, reflect what can happen when statistics are tweaked and reviewed and compared against league averages, luck and nuetralizing affects. Some times, these statistics can present a different side to a story, but I do not believe this is the case here.

Instead, in this case, it seems to me the most obvious and logical explanation of Avery's low BABIP in April, somewhat related to Avery's awful K rates, is that Avery was not in control of the strike zone and was an easy out. He was likely swinging at bad pitches and turning over weak ground balls and lifting easy pop flies when he was able to make contact as opposed to whether Avery was hitting flares right at defenders such that his numbers need to be nuetralized or averaged or adjusted for luck.

That's my opinion and Stotle is entitled to his. As people above believe I should stop posting on this issue as my opinion is either offensive or poorly presented or adds little to this discussion, then this will be my lost post in this thread.

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I really am stunned by Avery's turnaround and have tried to share some enthusiam regarding his prospect status with the board. My hopes for Avery as a prospect are the same as for Snyder and Rowell and others and just because I have posted repeatedly about Avery's progress, suggestions that I am heavily invested in this discussion and Avery's progess are not reflective of reality.

The information and hypotheses presented by Stotle, IMO, are of dubious merit in this discussion and, again IMO, reflect what can happen when statistics are tweaked and reviewed and compared against league averages, luck and nuetralizing affects. Some times, these statistics can present a different side to a story, but I do not believe this is the case here.

Instead, in this case, it seems to me the most obvious and logical explanation of Avery's low BABIP in April, somewhat related to Avery's awful K rates, is that Avery was not in control of the strike zone and was an easy out. He was likely swinging at bad pitches and turning over weak ground balls and lifting easy pop flies when he was able to make contact as opposed to whether Avery was hitting flares right at defenders such that his numbers need to be nuetralized or averaged or adjusted for luck.

That's my opinion and Stotle is entitled to his. As people above believe I should stop posting on this issue as my opinion is either offensive or poorly presented or adds little to this discussion, then this will be my lost post in this thread.

I guess what is most perplexing is why Ks, BBs, and BABIP tendencies must be so mutually exclusive. They are all tools in a toolbox. I do not think you have properly established why BABIP is dubious beyond you not trusting it and you seem to be largely on an island with respect to that. No one is claiming any one particular stat as an end all, but more so as a piece to a puzzle. I'm not sure exactly why you wish to be so closed off to this. I can only figure you have been left out of the loop on BABIP studies these past three or four years. It is the new horizon.

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Instead, in this case, it seems to me the most obvious and logical explanation of Avery's low BABIP in April, somewhat related to Avery's awful K rates, is that Avery was not in control of the strike zone and was an easy out. He was likely swinging at bad pitches and turning over weak ground balls and lifting easy pop flies when he was able to make contact as opposed to whether Avery was hitting flares right at defenders such that his numbers need to be nuetralized or averaged or adjusted for luck

Avery in April (doesn't that sound like a good movie title?):

57.1% of his hits were groundballs

21.4% of his hits were line drives

21.4% of his hits were flyballs

0.0% of his hits were infield flyballs

In May:

58.7% of his hits were groundballs

8.7% of his hits were line drives

32.6% of his hits were flyballs

5.3% of his hits were infield flyballs

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

His LD% went down 12.7 points, his FB% went up 12.2 points, and his IF/F% went up 5.3 points from nothing. His groundball percentage remained essentially unchanged.

If you work on the assumption that line drives are the most likely type of hit to become a hit, and infield flies are the most likely type of hit to become an out, then you would think looking at these number Avery would see a decrease in production from April to May.

Of course we don't know of the ground balls which were some weak ass **** and which were smoked. Not exactly sure where I stand but I think the data is relevant. This is why I wish we were able to measure the average velocity of the hits as they leave the bat as well, to help distinguish between soft grounders and "worm burners" as we say in lax vernacular.

Stat peeps, is there a general rule that your BABIP should be your LD% + .120 or did I make that up?

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Avery in April (doesn't that sound like a good movie title?):

57.1% of his hits were groundballs

21.4% of his hits were line drives

21.4% of his hits were flyballs

0.0% of his hits were infield flyballs

In May:

58.7% of his hits were groundballs

8.7% of his hits were line drives

32.6% of his hits were flyballs

5.3% of his hits were infield flyballs

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi

His LD% went down 12.7 points, his FB% went up 12.2 points, and his IF/F% went up 5.3 points from nothing. His groundball percentage remained essentially unchanged.

If you work on the assumption that line drives are the most likely type of hit to become a hit, and infield flies are the most likely type of hit to become an out, then you would think looking at these number Avery would see a decrease in production from April to May.

Of course we don't know of the ground balls which were some weak ass **** and which were smoked. Not exactly sure where I stand but I think the data is relevant. This is why I wish we were able to measure the average velocity of the hits as they leave the bat as well, to help distinguish between soft grounders and "worm burners" as we say in lax vernacular.

Stat peeps, is there a general rule that your BABIP should be your LD% + .120 or did I make that up?

Right, and it is very rough. It is more accurate to go through each of the hit types.

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Right, and it is very rough. It is more accurate to go through each of the hit types.

Could you direct me towards some of the more recent work on BABIP? I forget which hit types batters have more or less control over. It's OK if they're long I like learning! Thanks in advance.

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