Xavier Avery

[LookinUp]

I have a feeling that people will stop describing Avery as toolsy or athletic and start describing him as an advanced, gifted young player. This hot streak could certainly be just that...but it's becoming a longer trend.

[glenn__davis]

Since that great game, Avery is 1-18 with 10 Ks. He does have 5 BB, during that time, though. Obviously we're only looking at a handful of games, but you wonder if he's working on going deeper into counts.

[Fairfax Bird]

5 BBs in last 10 ABs. Pretty awesome.

[glenn__davis]

In his last 10 games since the 5-5 game, Avery is 2-31 with 14 Ks.

[Lucky Jim]

In his last 10 games since the 5-5 game, Avery is 2-31 with 14 Ks.

Obviously, he's turned the corner. It's just the wrong corner.

[McLovin]

Taken from this post - in my opinion, this is a very measured and accurate take on what I would call irrational exuberance regarding Avery:

Shoshana (NC): Xavier Avery doesn't even crack the team photo of last week's 2008 hot sheet? Am I missing something? I know he had a lot of strikeouts but he's really cut down on them lately.

J.J. Cooper: He hasn't really cut down on them in fact it's going the other way, he's struck out in 44 percent of his at-bats over the past week (13 of 29) after striking out in 24 percent of his at-bats this season. If you're going on production, which is what we were going on for last year's 2008 draftee Hot Sheet he wasn't really close. A .279/.329/.376 line doesn't really make much of an argument, even if you have 17 steals (but also 8 caught). He's a raw prospect, so it's hard to expect much more out of him yet, but his potential is more promising than his production right now.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy, but I'm simply not blown away like some in this board (with talk of promotion, draft pick vindication, etc.).

[McLovin]

.241 and falling in June, striking out about once every four at-bats. Down to .267/.326/.681 on the year.

So yeah, he's where he should be in terms of minor league level.

[LookinUp]

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy, but I'm simply not blown away like some in this board (with talk of promotion, draft pick vindication, etc.).

I'm one of those people who spoke of promotion, etc. I'd just like to note 2 things:

1. All predictions from just about everyone on this site have come with the "if he keeps this up" caveat. In other words, we didn't want to blindly promote the kid based on his relatively long hot spurt.

2. It's easy to call positive folks out during a slump.

I'm very interested to see how he adjusts to his recent troubles.

[Stotle]

I'm one of those people who spoke of promotion, etc. I'd just like to note 2 things:

1. All predictions from just about everyone on this site have come with the "if he keeps this up" caveat. In other words, we didn't want to blindly promote the kid based on his relatively long hot spurt.

2. It's easy to call positive folks out during a slump.

I'm very interested to see how he adjusts to his recent troubles.

Agreed. In fact, it's as easy as it is to call more conservative folks out when a player is riding a hot streak -- and some of the more conservative folks took a beating with regards to Avery when he was tearing it up.

If anything, it should be a reminder that any matter of days or weeks is usually too small a sample to make sweeping statements, when it comes to prospects (be it positive or negative). We should all enjoy the ride and maybe take stock at the midway point and at the end of the season.

[LookinUp]

Agreed. In fact, it's as easy as it is to call more conservative folks out when a player is riding a hot streak -- and some of the more conservative folks took a beating with regards to Avery when he was tearing it up.

I didn't notice this, but if you say so I believe you.

[Singleton]

I'm actually the one that started the other Avery thread expressing some concern about his start and folks got pretty upset. I think it helps if people leave out the "I told you sos". I thought it was valid to point out his struggles as a concern just as I feel it is valid to point out his later success and in both directions we need to keep a level head. I'd say at this point he seems to be a pretty streaky hitter something to keep in mind for the future. Hopefully, he'll address this and gain a bit of pop as he matures.

[McLovin]

It's too early for "I told you so" all around.

Avery has proven he can hit Low A pitching. Now he has to prove that he can do it consistently, and he has to show that he can make adjustments. He's obviously learning, and that's a good sign.

[LookinUp]

There's a certain evolution to hitting for a lot of guys. The average amateur player's swing changes as the season progresses. It's the professional's ability to refine and repeat that swing, just like pitching mechanics, that leads to sustained success.

There's also the issue of seeing and timing pitches, which is even harder to overcome.

So, while these fluctuations in performance are clearly streaks, I think they can also be characterized as an essential part of his developmental process.

[Stotle]

I don't think anyone got upset. You can go back and read the "Avery Overmatched" thread and see for yourself. I think you wrote Avery off after 30 ab's and said it had been a mistake to start him at Delmarva.

At one point after the initial posts, Avery ran off a good 10 game stretch and I made the mistake of saying that it looked like Avery had weather the storm and would probably be able to stay at Delmarva all year long.

Perhaps I and a few others got a little too high when Avery got hot and hit his high note with his 5 for 5 day with 2 doubles and a homer. Since then he's been pretty cold. He's had some highs and lows. That's for sure. At almost the halfway point I think we can all agree that he is not overmatched at this level. He's learning and hopefully has another hot streak in him.

Fun storyline, for sure. Avery will be an exciting kid to follow.

[Singleton]

I don't think anyone got upset. You can go back and read the "Avery Overmatched" thread and see for yourself. I think you wrote Avery off after 30 ab's and said it had been a mistake to start him at Delmarva.

At one point after the initial posts, Avery ran off a good 10 game stretch and I made the mistake of saying that it looked like Avery had weather the storm and would probably be able to stay at Delmarva all year long.

Perhaps I and a few others got a little too high when Avery got hot and hit his high note with his 5 for 5 day with 2 doubles and a homer. Since then he's been pretty cold. He's had some highs and lows. That's for sure. At almost the halfway point I think we can all agree that he is not overmatched at this level. He's learning and hopefully has another hot streak in him.

I didn't "write him off." My post noted his strikeouts and said it was a concern -- which they were (and are) -- and I said hopefully he turns it around. I'm not sure how that is writing him off.

It's true that I had the audacity to note the trend after just 30 abs (13 ks). It's a message board that is active year round. The trend was noteworthy. I don't feel like I have to wait until the All-star break to comment on how a player is doing. I do find it a bit disappointing that when a person comments on a player's struggles -- particularly a young player -- an awful lot of posters get defensive as if you'd criticized a family member or something.

My own perspective is that I want to know the good and bad and I welcome comments that point out trends on both sides. I'm guessing that a post about a player who hits 5 homers in his first 30 abs would have gotten a very different reception.

We have more data available on Avery but I'm not quite sure what to make of it. He is young so there's time to grow. Going forward I think the key is will he cut his strikeouts and increase his power.