1st round talents losing stock.....

[QBsILLEST1]

I was just doing my daily check up on Sickel's site, www.minorleagueball.com and he has a section in there discussing pitchers whose draft stock is on the rise, and also pitchers whose stock is falling.

If this were 2007, Jake Arrieta would be on the "draft stock falling" list. To me, the list of pitchers whose draft stock is falling is kinda like shopping in the bargain basket and we should as well as Joe Jordan should be keeping his eye on some of these 1st round talent pitchers who fall to the 2nd 3rd 4th or even latter rounds(Bundy). The biggest name that jumps out to me on the Sickels list is Andy Oliver. I would love to grab him in the 2nd if he was there, or someone not on the list though their stock has fallen, Alex Wilson would also be an amazing pick up for us after the 1st. Take a look, of the former supposed 1st round pitching talents whose stock is falling who would you like to grab after the 1st? Do you have someone else to add to the list?

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/5/20/881006/draft-stock-updates-college

[Stotle]

I was just doing my daily check up on Sickel's site, www.minorleagueball.com and he has a section in there discussing pitchers whose draft stock is on the rise, and also pitchers whose stock is falling.

If this were 2007, Jake Arrieta would be on the "draft stock falling" list. To me, the list of pitchers whose draft stock is falling is kinda like shopping in the bargain basket and we should as well as Joe Jordan should be keeping his eye on some of these 1st round talent pitchers who fall to the 2nd 3rd 4th or even latter rounds(Bundy). The biggest name that jumps out to me on the Sickels list is Andy Oliver. I would love to grab him in the 2nd if he was there, or someone not on the list though their stock has fallen, Alex Wilson would also be an amazing pick up for us after the 1st. Take a look, of the former supposed 1st round pitching talents whose stock is falling who would you like to grab after the 1st? Do you have someone else to add to the list?

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/5/20/881006/draft-stock-updates-college

To be clear, this looks like a poster and not Sickels himself.

He's been pretty well researched with his coverage -- I don't know how much evaluation he actually does on his own. But he clearly reads lots of different sources. This list looks pretty okay to me. I don't think it's very useful to say Paxton raised his stock over the course of the season when his stock is on the decline due to performance and Boras (I'd rather see something covering more recent trends) but for what it is, this looks pretty well researched.

For falling guys to watch 2-5? Maybe add:

Ian Krol

Kyle Heckathorn

Surprised not to see Stock or Brothers mentioned as "Risers". They've probably risen more than anyone.

[QBsILLEST1]

To be clear, this looks like a poster and not Sickels himself.

He's been pretty well researched with his coverage -- I don't know how much evaluation he actually does on his own. But he clearly reads lots of different sources. This list looks pretty okay to me. I don't think it's very useful to say Paxton raised his stock over the course of the season when his stock is on the decline due to performance and Boras (I'd rather see something covering more recent trends) but for what it is, this looks pretty well researched.

For falling guys to watch 2-5? Maybe add:

Ian Krol

Kyle Heckathorn

Surprised not to see Stock or Brothers mentioned as "Risers". They've probably risen more than anyone.

Well especially for the poster to say that Paxton took over as top lefty college pitcher when last I checked, hasnt done anything to really solidy himself as a better lefty than Oliver. I would probably rather have Paxton because I believe his ceiling is higher, but his ERA is through the roof.

And Krol would be an awesome pickup in round 2, and may actually even be a pick JJ had in mind. He may even drop to the 3rd, but I still think he will go in round 2.

[Stotle]

Well especially for the poster to say that Paxton took over as top lefty college pitcher when last I checked, hasnt done anything to really solidy himself as a better lefty than Oliver. I would probably rather have Paxton because I believe his ceiling is higher, but his ERA is through the roof.

And Krol would be an awesome pickup in round 2, and may actually even be a pick JJ had in mind. He may even drop to the 3rd, but I still think he will go in round 2.

Krol's stock will depend on his commitment to Arizona. If he looks signable, I'd start considering as early as round 5. If he says he'll definitely sign, I'd grab him in 3 or 4.

[QBsILLEST1]

Wow, wasnt he a supplemental 1st to 2nd round talent before the suspension?

[Stotle]

Wow, wasnt he a supplemental 1st to 2nd round talent before the suspension?

I had him around the supplemental round -- not sure where others did. Not pitching all year will hurt his stock. Let's say he says he'll sign but for late 1st round money -- do you spend a 2nd round pick/money on him based on his performance on the summer circuit in 2008? I'd have a hard time. Third round I could start to consider it. That's still around a top 100 pick overall.

[QBsILLEST1]

I had him around the supplemental round -- not sure where others did. Not pitching all year will hurt his stock. Let's say he says he'll sign but for late 1st round money -- do you spend a 2nd round pick/money on him based on his performance on the summer circuit in 2008? I'd have a hard time. Third round I could start to consider it. That's still around a top 100 pick overall.

And also not to mention VERY good value at your 3rd pick. I hope we get a few guys like this, JJ always seems to look for those kind of picks, but you dont want to take them off the board to quickly when you could get another quality pick at that slot and still grab a Krol or a Bundy(08) in the next round.

[Stotle]

And also not to mention VERY good value at your 3rd pick. I hope we get a few guys like this, JJ always seems to look for those kind of picks, but you dont want to take them off the board to quickly when you could get another quality pick at that slot and still grab a Krol or a Bundy(08) in the next round.

That's really the issue. I'm having that dilemma with regards to Dustin Dickerson and our Shadow Draft over at Camden Depot. I can't for the life of me figure out why he isn't getting more heat, particularly from pretty established draft sources. I want him in our Shadow Draft, but don't want to take him too early (I'm hoping for him in Round 4, which I think is possible).

[QBsILLEST1]

To me, JJ did a phenomenal job last year with the Bundy pick. I cant believe that Bundy was still around then. Our #6 pick Zagone is working out well for us right now, but I would be happy with Bundy as our 2nd or 3rd round pick from 08 and JJ held out alllll the way to round 8 and picked up some quality pieces between rounds 2 and 7. I really can not imagine Bundy being around much longer than he was, excellent excellent pick. Im counting down the days to the draft this year like I used to count down to Christmas when I was a kid.....I cant wait to see what he pulls out of this year's draft.

Have you posted any of your shadow draft picks yet or are you going to put them all on the site at the same time?

[Stotle]

To me, JJ did a phenomenal job last year with the Bundy pick. I cant believe that Bundy was still around then. Our #6 pick Zagone is working out well for us right now, but I would be happy with Bundy as our 2nd or 3rd round pick from 08 and JJ held out alllll the way to round 8 and picked up some quality pieces between rounds 2 and 7. I really can not imagine Bundy being around much longer than he was, excellent excellent pick. Im counting down the days to the draft this year like I used to count down to Christmas when I was a kid.....I cant wait to see what he pulls out of this year's draft.

Have you posted any of your shadow draft picks yet or are you going to put them all on the site at the same time?

We run the shadow draft at the same time as the regular draft. So, Jon and I will be blogging (and possible providing some coverage in another form) throughout the first two days of the draft. We make our pick when the Orioles are on the clock for each pick, rounds 1 - 10 (last year we only did 1 - 5).

Our picks were:

1:4 Brian Matusz

2:4 Tim Melville

3:4 Roger Kieschnick

4:4 Brandon Crawford

5:4 Bobby Humphries

So far, the returns have been solid. Crawford has already earned a promotion to AA and Kieschnick is putting up solid numbers at HiA. We've all been following Matusz -- Melville starts in short-season ball next month. Humphries decided to go to Pepperdine, so that was a wasted pick.