Mock Ten

[allstar1579]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4171726&name=gammons_peter

http://usctrojans31.wordpress.com/2008/07/01/looking-ahead-dustin-ackley/

There are others, including me in the MLB-Draft.com write up last year, that have mentioned Utley comps. This was well before Gammons' mentioning it.

Ackley doesn't project to hit 30 HR's a year, but he does have the potential for 15-20+ and has shown that he's nowhere near a slap hitter. Chase Utley power is unlikely, but possible. The comparisons were made to evoke visions of that sort of star quality... much as I mentioned Boggs and Gwynn, great lefty hitters.

Keith Law is a fairly well-respected media member with a strong scouting background and a bevy of inside contacts... how he goes about sharing this info does raise a few eyebrows, but curiously his mentioning of Tony Sanchez to the Pirates at four has since gained more validity via other reputable sources like BA. BA is not saying it's happening, but they were hearing what Law heard... so you never know.

Regarding the view that Ackley would not have been in the top ten last year... I feel differently about that. I believe that Ackley is a special hitting talent, much in the same way I did Eric Hosmer last year. The difference is that Hosmer is so young and has years to get there, whereas Ackley would likely not embarrass himself in the Majors right now. He will need time to adapt to wood and play a full year or more in the minors, but I have little doubt he'll be an outstanding ML'er. When one of the very best Amateur Draft reviews say he may be the best hitter in a decade, and nearly every major scouting source feels his bat is special... well, I tend to buy into that. His position is a potential issue, his bat is not. How much he's worth is another issue entirely, and I can understand the hesitation to want to pay him monster money... he may very well not be worth it when all is said and done. There are risks inherent to taking him.

I could be wrong... but sometimes it's cool to see things in a different light.

Thanks, I really did miss that one, it's hard to sort through all of the different alternative bands Peter is plugging to find draft info sometimes I've really never heard the Utley comps, but I can't say I agree with that one unfortunately. I see him as a gap to gap guy with doubles power and will hit a few out as result, but I can't see him doing more than 50 doubles, and 12-15 HR, the best comp I have for him is Jed Lowrie, the problem is it's hard to compare him to another guy that hasn't really broken out yet. Same good ability to hit for average, had a little pop in college, but looks like it's going to translate to doubles power in the pros. Gammons thinks he's going to hit 40-50 doubles, much like I do for Dustin.

Maybe I'm just a bit cynical, but I have a feeling it's more a case of Law spitballing, and then other publications running with it, I mean as a journalist, you are hearing that PIT is working out a guy like Sanchez who could very easily not go until the supplemental round, don't you look at it and say maybe they are just doing their homework, I'll keep it in mind, but not jump to the conclusion oh they must be taking him?

I just look at Ackley versus Kendrick and I think it's really close, Kendrick outclasses him hitting wise (Kendrick being the best hitter I've seen since Gwynn) and even Kendrick hasn't been able to stay above .300 in the majors. I'm not buying the hype, especially for elite player money. Strasburg is the only player in this draft worth $6 mil per year, in a couple years, maybe I'm wrong on Ackley, maybe he's the second coming of Gwynn, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say I'm not impressed. The only 2 players in the top 11 that I take Ackley over are Skipworth and Castro, and I think they were only where they were because of position/signability.

[Greg Pappas]

First off, great debate....it is nice hearing the opinions of people who know what they're talking about.

I've been following the draft for about 6+ months now, talking with friends and doing mock drafts ourselves. Not once have I seen Ackley fall all the way to 5. Is it really possible for this to happen?

The Pirates just sent a letter out to their fan base for their reasoning to trading Nate McClouth. I highly doubt he passes that organization let alone the Padres. I love the discussion and all, but do you guys/gals really think he falls to us at 5???

I doubt he falls to #5, but yes, it's possible... and mainly due to potential financial reasons (Scott Boras client.)

[allstar1579]

You could apply this same argument to Green vs Matzek and Wheeler.

Worst case scenario for Green… he can not stay at SS, and is forced to move to 2nd. Some might argue the worst case would be his power never develops, but I would disagree. If he can continue to be a line-drive spray hitter, that has the ability to go opposite-field…and can take advantage of his athleticism, his bat is going to play.

Worst case is that he starts 2010 in Frederick, and does not light the world on fire, and has to spend all of 2010 in the Carolina League. Starts 2011 at Bowie, after probably playing in the Arizona Fall League after the 2010 season. Gets a couple of hundred at-bats at Bowie during 2011, and joins the O's by mid-season.

The O's starting SS is a guy that has had 3300 Major League at-bats and has a career on-base % of .299. I feel pretty comfortable saying that whatever advantage Izturis has over Green with the glove, that Green will off-set with the bat. Worst-case, should be looking at a .750 OPS type of player, and league average, to slightly below average defense by mid-season 2011.

The best-case scenario for Matzek and Wheeler is that they sign early, get moved to Aberdeen to end 2009, and start 2010 at Delmarva. You hope that Matzek with his ability to throw multiple pitches for strikes can adjust quickly as a professional. With reports that he sometimes throws to a gun, you hope the recent reports of his velocity gain are not him overthrowing. With Wheeler, you hope that he is able to add another pitch.

So, if things go right… you are hoping are hoping 2010 Delmarva, 2011 Frederick, 2012 Bowie…. 2013 O's…. If there are any hiccups there - development, injury - maybe the spend a 2nd season at Frederick a la Erbe and are a viable option for the O's in 2014.

These guys are not Porcello, nor even Matusz. To me, drafting these HS arms is a perfect example of being an optimist and blindly skipping along to the podium.

Actually the worst case scenario for Green is that he doesn't make it to the majors. Not saying I really think that will happen, but it's definitely possible, it happens every year.

That is exactly what I'm saying drafting these HS arms. I don't want instant gratification each year in the draft like a lot of people seem to want, I want to take talent, at whatever level and then develop it appropriately. If I take a HS arm, I have no intentions of him being ML ready for 4-5 years. I have no problems doing that because I feel like the talent we have now deserves a good long look and a chance to develop itself, so we should be starting the next wave of talent that is fully grown and ready to go behind them. That is just a personal preference though, I would take a college arm if I felt they were the best player on the board. I just happen to really like the HS kids this year, and I'm willing to take the shot on them.

The thing with HS arms is that they can end up better than the college guys, if they are thought of high enough to be equal talent to the college arms 3-4 years earlier that should say something. You just have to be ready to be patient with them. I don't agree with the HS arms are riskier than college arms argument, talent is talent, and with the amount of professional coaching out there in organizations it's not that much of a worry for me.

If taking a HS player is blindly skipping to the podium than there must be a crapload of seeing-eye dogs at the winter meetings every year, because every team takes them. I understand people are in win-now, I want results right now mode, but this draft is totally different from other sports, it's a long term project, hence why you don't see a lot of parity in MLB, it takes a lot to go from the bottom to a contending team, you can't just retool in a season and be ready to go.

[allstar1579]

First off, great debate....it is nice hearing the opinions of people who know what they're talking about.

I've been following the draft for about 6+ months now, talking with friends and doing mock drafts ourselves. Not once have I seen Ackley fall all the way to 5. Is it really possible for this to happen?

The Pirates just sent a letter out to their fan base for their reasoning to trading Nate McClouth. I highly doubt he passes that organization let alone the Padres. I love the discussion and all, but do you guys/gals really think he falls to us at 5???

Yeah, like Greg said, it is in the realm, mostly because of financial reasons. I think if SEA passes he could drop, if they get scared off it could set off a domino effect of people scared to sign him. I just hope one of them doesn't so I don't have to spend the next week arguing why I would have taken Matzek or Wheeler

[JTrea81]

I just look at Ackley versus Kendrick and I think it's really close, Kendrick outclasses him hitting wise (Kendrick being the best hitter I've seen since Gwynn) and even Kendrick hasn't been able to stay above .300 in the majors. I'm not buying the hype, especially for elite player money. Strasburg is the only player in this draft worth $6 mil per year, in a couple years, maybe I'm wrong on Ackley, maybe he's the second coming of Gwynn, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say I'm not impressed. The only 2 players in the top 11 that I take Ackley over are Skipworth and Castro, and I think they were only where they were because of position/signability.

I'm sorry, but anybody who says Howie Kendrick is a better hitter than Dustin Ackley loses credibility with me, not that it matters to you most likely. And I'd take him over Posey and Beckham and it would be close with Smoak due to Ackley's speed and better batting eye.

Ackley is going to be much better than Kendrick.

[allstar1579]

I'm sorry, but anybody who says Howie Kendrick is a better hitter than Dustin Ackley loses credibility with me, not that it matters to you most likely.

Ackley is going to be much better than Kendrick.

Then you are really showing just how deep your scouting ability runs. Kendrick has been the best contact hitting prospect in the past decade. If you think Ackley is going to hit better than .360 in 1540 AB in the minors, you can put your money where your mouth is, I'll call you out right now.

[allstar1579]

If the worst-case for Green is that he does not make it to the Majors, that argument applies to the HS pitchers as well, and is even more likely.

You keep talking about instant gratification, but that is not the argument.

The argument is that you in the American League East, not competing on the same financial playing-field. You can not afford to allocate 1st round resources, and have that investment flame-out.

I believe Green is a better talent than the HS arms, but that is a separate argument.

Green is more likely to provide some value to the Major League team than Matzek and Wheeler. The fact that he would likely provide that value sooner, is just an added bonus.

I do not disagree with the idea that HS arms might end up better than the college guys. Totally agree with you there… Even in the O's organization, you can look at Tillman vs Arrieta. Tillman is at a higher-level, and 2 years younger.

Talent is part of the reason HS guys get selected in-front of some college arms, but it is not the only reason. A lot of times the HS arm gets selected, because the teams get enamored with how that HS player could project down the road.

There is enough data out there to show that spending early 1st round dollars on HS arms is a scary investment. Not exactly surprising, when you consider that you are signing these players for what you hope they may be 4-5 years down the road.

Yes, we all agree the baseball draft is much different vs the NFL and NBA. However, an even bigger difference between MLB and the NFL is the lack of a salary cap, and complete revenue sharing.

Because of that difference, and the obstacles the O's face… I think selecting a HS arm at this part of the draft is a poor investment.

I follow you completely, I just feel like you can't get gun shy and start trying to play it safe with first round picks because a first round pick isn't guaranteed to really be an impact player when he makes it to the majors. I agree with you that Green is more likely to make it there than the HS kids, but I think the difference between them if they both make it will be pretty large, that is worth taking the gamble for me. If every team played it safe in the first round and ignored projection it would be closer to the NFL where you see such a high success rate in first rounders, but I'd rather take a shot at grabbing an all-star than settle for the guy I thought would make it to the majors.

If people played it safe all the time, Porcello would not be pitching for the Tigers right now, the Marlins would have one less WS title, and NYY and BOS wouldn't keep stockpiling talent the way they do.

I'm not discounting your opinion or argument, it's just conflicting opinions on how to try to keep pace with the Yanks and Sox, but I think the better way to catch them is to trust your scouting department and go for the home run pick, not the bunt single.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm sorry, but anybody who says Howie Kendrick is a better hitter than Dustin Ackley loses credibility with me, not that it matters to you most likely. And I'd take him over Posey and Beckham and it would be close with Smoak due to Ackley's speed and better batting eye.

Ackley is going to be much better than Kendrick.

I wouldnt go as far to say that Ackley will be a better hitter than Kendrick. Kendrick hasnt played a full season due to injury, and while he was in the minors never had a season where he hit below what .360? Thats ridiuclous! Ackley hasnt played a single game in pro ball, there is no telling how his bat will translate from college to the minors to the majors. He could hit the ground running and hit a wall when he gets to the majors, just like Hendrick. Or maybe he is a success in the minors and majors, there is no telling, and that is why there is no way to say that Ackley will be better, it is your opinion which you are entitiled to, but not a definative statement.

[JTrea81]

I wouldnt go as far to say that Ackley will be a better hitter than Kendrick. Kendrick hasnt played a full season due to injury, and while he was in the minors never had a season where he hit below what .360? Thats ridiuclous! Ackley hasnt played a single game in pro ball, there is no telling how his bat will translate from college to the minors to the majors. He could hit the ground running and hit a wall when he gets to the majors, just like Hendrick. Or maybe he is a success in the minors and majors, there is no telling, and that is why there is no way to say that Ackley will be better, it is your opinion which you are entitiled to, but not a definative statement.

Kendrick's OBP was built around his BA. Ackley has shown a much better batting eye and has had a high BA and a ridiculous OBP.

I would say Ackley batting .400+ all 3 years of college is quite impressive in his own right. Smoak, nor Wieters ever did that.

[JTrea81]

Then you are really showing just how deep your scouting ability runs. Kendrick has been the best contact hitting prospect in the past decade. If you think Ackley is going to hit better than .360 in 1540 AB in the minors, you can put your money where your mouth is, I'll call you out right now.

I never claimed to be a scout, and Ackley won't stay in the minors that long...

And Kendrick may have been the best contact hitting prospect, but that doesn't make him the best complete hitter.

His OBP was built all on his BA, and once ML pitchers found a way to exploit his swing, his BA as well as his OBP dropped. Ackley has more patience and a better batting eye and thus will have the better career IMO.

[JTrea81]

BTW my final mock

Washington - Stephen Strasburg, RHP

Seattle - Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF

San Diego - Mike Minor, LHP

Pittsburgh - Aaron Crow, RHP

Baltimore - Zach Wheeler, RHP

San Francisco - Tyler Matzek, LHP

Atlanta - Donovan Tate, OF

Cincinatti - Shelby Miller, RHP

Detroit - Grant Green, SS

Washington - Chad Jenkins, RHP

[allstar1579]

Kendrick's OBP was built around his BA. Ackley has shown a much better batting eye and has had a high BA and a ridiculous OBP.

I would say Ackley batting .400+ all 3 years of college is quite impressive in his own right. Smoak, nor Wieters ever did that.

Two different styles of hitters. Lowrie wasn't far off from Ackley's stats, .377 17HR one year, and he lasted til the supplemental. For a guy that is all about the big mashers, you are talking an awful lot of "moneyball" all of a sudden.

I never claimed to be a scout, and Ackley won't stay in the minors that long...

And Kendrick may have been the best contact hitting prospect, but that doesn't make him the best complete hitter.

His OBP was built all on his BA, and once ML pitchers found a way to exploit his swing, his BA as well as his OBP dropped. Ackley has more patience and a better batting eye and thus will have the better career IMO.

Scout-speak. Talking about a guy's hitting ability is his ability to hit for contact. His power is the 2B and HR thing. Ackley is far from a complete hitter, he hit 10 and 7 HR before this year. A complete hitter is Pujols. Kendrick is a hitter, or a contact hitter, how ever you want to word it, and a power hitter is a guy like Dunn who will hit you 50 HR but is going to strike out a ton and not hit for a great average because of it.

Guess which category Ackley falls into. No really. Guess.

There have been plenty of times where you have offered your opinion as fact, only to be shown otherwise, this is just another. Where were you when you were so adamant about over-use of college arms and I showed you otherwise? It's fine if it is your opinion that Ackley is going to be a great hitter and is worth $6, but only when you preface that by saying it is your opinion and that other people's opinions, agreeing or not, are just as valid, just like I am saying with you now.

[bigelow]

After reading this i would like to give my two cents. O's will not pass on Ackley. He is a very good hitter who is devoloping power and bat plays at about any position. Any worry about a position change aka Grant Green im not using my top 5 pick on. I like Green a lot but its just common sense to not use a top 5 pick on a player if he moves to 3rd then he is just a average player. High School pitcher is the way to go for the Orioles either Matzek or Turner. Its high risk yes but high reward too. To me Turner has more risk and the most reward and Matzek has less risk with a little less reward.

[Mashed Potatoes]

At this point after doing a lot of reading (thanks to the amazingly knowledgeable posters here) there are 2 guys I want the O's to get at #5.

1. Matzek

2. Wheeler

I think one or both of them will be available at #5, I'll be a bit disappointed if we draft White or Green. I don't think there's a chance Ackley falls to us, and he really doesn't excite me anyway.

[Tmac3]

No way the O's take Green...He has not proven himself, to much of a risk for MacPhail. For all those people saying Ackley is not worth 6 million and Matusz is better then him. NO PITCHER IN HISTORY OF THE DRART HAS GOT 6 MIL...its a terrible comparison, Ackley has a .409 career average throughout college, I do not understand how he is not worthy. He might not have all the power that previous 6 million men had but he is a proven college hitter who is going to make a huge impact on whatever team takes him. To me he is definitely worth 6 mil.

allstar1579

that Gammons article is at espn.com

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4171726&name=gammons_peter

If that link doesn't work it is under MLB-Draft Coverage-then if you scroll through the feature articles you'll see a picture of Ackley. I think it might be insider but idk, I have insider.