Bill James on Dave Trembley

[Lucky Jim]

Jeez, don't let SG see this!

I doubt he'd argue that. Pie is a great package of talent, but right now, there's little question that Reimold is a better hitter.

[El Gordo]

Saying that DT does this or that better than Francona doesn't mean anything though.

What matters is how he does it for the Orioles.

And for the Orioles, he does a bad job of handling his bench and bullpen.

Again, the point that seems to fly over your head is that I am not comparing him against other managers...I am evaluating him as the Orioles manager...I am evaluating his strengths and weaknesses. His strengths are dealing with the players, the media, etc...His weaknesses are handling the bench and the pen.

That's all...I am not saying DT is a bad manager..I am not saying we should fire him...I am not saying we should replace him with Manny Acta. If I were doing those things, at that point I should have to talk about the attributes of other managers...But since I am not doing that, what the others are doing is meaningless.

I am just saying he isn't a good in game manager...If other managers throughout baseball would make the same moves and mistakes, then fine, they are poor too...But I don't care about that.

Let me try to make it easy for you. Good in game manager and bench manager compared to what? Scioscia and Gardenhire are good in game managers IMO, better than DT. I can't say about their bench management.

As for DT's bench management, he is resting everyone adequately except Nick and BRob IMO, but since I don't know his reasons for doing this, I am not going to pass judgement.

[Sports Guy]

Let me try to make it easy for you. Good in game manager and bench manager compared to what? Scioscia and Gardenhire are good in game managers IMO, better than DT. I can't say about their bench management.

As for DT's bench management, he is resting everyone adequately except Nick and BRob IMO, but since I don't know his reasons for doing this, I am not going to pass judgement.

Compared to what he should be doing.

Again, I am not sure why you are trying to make this into some kind of comparison...I am not comparing him to anyone.

I am strictly evaluating him.

Let me put it this way...if 20 other managers are the same way that DT is with his bench and pen, that doesn't mean that DT is just some average manager...it means that those 20 managers aren't good in game managers either.

So again, it really doesn't matter how he is compared to others until i start calling for his head and wanting others here over him.

Right now, this is solely about his abilities as a manager...what is he good at? what is he bad at?

That's all...you are trying to make this into more than it is.

[El Gordo]

Compared to what he should be doing.

Again, I am not sure why you are trying to make this into some kind of comparison...I am not comparing him to anyone.

I am strictly evaluating him.

Let me put it this way...if 20 other managers are the same way that DT is with his bench and pen, that doesn't mean that DT is just some average manager...it means that those 20 managers aren't good in game managers either.

So again, it really doesn't matter how he is compared to others until i start calling for his head and wanting others here over him.

Right now, this is solely about his abilities as a manager...what is he good at? what is he bad at?

That's all...you are trying to make this into more than it is.

How do you determine this? Is there a book called what baseball managers should be doing in 2009?

[LookinUp]

I'm in the middle on this argument. First, I agree that Trembley has been asked to make lemonade out of lemons since he got here. By that, I mean he's been asked to win with terrible pitching. I don't mind him throwing Walker and Ray out there. If they can't perform, they shouldn't be on the team. AM needs to fix it.

Therefore, I don't blame tired position players on the late season collapses. That may have a part of it, but the problem has overwhelmingly been a lack of pitching, starting right about August 1 each year. No manager could have won with those guys.

I do have two problems with DT though. First, I think elsid's reference to small ball is 100% correct. It's not about stealing or not stealing, bunting or not bunting, hitting and running or not...it's about knowing when to do it and who to do it with. It's also about preparing your team to be successful at doing it. This extends to baserunning in general as well. For this, Trembley really deserves an F.

W/r/t use of the bench, I also think SG is correct. Trembley should be using his full roster with two things in mind:

1. Give the regulars a day off, based upon need. Someone like Markakis or Jones probably doesn't need many days off (although a few are called for). Alternatively, Roberts likely needs a couple more, Huff needs more than that and Mora needs the most. This should be systematized, just like most teams do with catchers. It seems to be a total afterthough to Trembley though.

2. With the caveat that we might not know everything going on with Pie...this situation is just ridiculous right now. We're facing Philip Hughes and Pie wasn't in the lineup but Wiggington was. I know Wiggy had a good game, but that's not the point. For some reason the Pie experiment has taken a turn, I just don't get it. He should still be getting as many ABs against lefties as possible, even with Reimold on the team. One way to do that would be to *gasp* give Markakis a night off. Another way would be to DH Pie or Reimold. There were options, but he went with Wiggington instead. It doesn't make sense for the future of this organization to make that decision, and to do so regularly.

The only question I have is how to quantify these shortcomings. It's extremely frustrating to watch so many baserunning errors. I don't know how many games they've actually lost us though.

[Sports Guy]

How do you determine this? Is there a book called what baseball managers should be doing in 2009?

Common sense mostly.

Take the other night...BB back in for the 7th and not having a reliever ready...That was poor decision making on his part...It can't be defended...Bringing BB out to start the 7th can be discussed...But not having someone else warming up can't be defended.

All to often it seems like DT does stuff like this.

A few weeks ago, he bringing McCrory, in his first appearance, with the bases loaded and Longoria up...That isn't a situation you introduce a a young guy to right off the bat. Just doesn't make a lot of sense.

I actually tend to agree that DT is probably not much worse than most managers in terms of in game managing...I think a lot of managers are poor at it but them being poor at it and DT being poor at it, doesn't make him better..It just makes him poor as well.

[now]

The only question I have is how to quantify these shortcomings. It's extremely frustrating to watch so many baserunning errors. I don't know how many games they've actually lost us though.

A week or so ago it quantified as around 10 runs lost (= 1 game), according to EqBRR at BP.

[BaltimoreTerp]

How do you determine this? Is there a book called what baseball managers should be doing in 2009?

Apparently it's the unwritten one that all managers are required to follow

You know why you're wrong here? It's not because what SG is saying is 100% correct. It's because you and others are missing a very important point in what he is saying.

A manager should NOT manage by any kind of "book", because every team is different and every situation is different. If you don't have a single dominant reliever, you don't pick a random player as a "closer" and bring them in no matter what. If you are a young team, as a rule often making fundamental mistakes, and you have older players with a history of questionable decisions, you don't go overaggressive on the basepaths.

Honestly, and I know I'm going to get a lot of crap for this, I think Trembley's demeinor is his biggest flaw. Because everyone wants to like him and believe what he says and believe he is doing the right thing and make excuses when things go wrong, he doesn't get the opportunity to learn from his mistakes. If he was REALLY getting criticized for every questionable call, he would have to justify his decision-making. Either he would start being able to say, "This is why I made the move and why it made sense," and the managing would improve, or he would give up on making risky decisions and end up getting fired. Either way the managing would be better.

And yes, I want with everything I believe in as a baseball fan to see the first scenario happen. I'm just afraid that because people don't LIKE to criticize him, it doesn't do any good for the team.

[Moose Milligan]

On the contrary (and I know you're not referring to me), I think second-guessing a manager is par for the course and is part of what makes baseball so interesting. There are so many different possible ways to manage a game and different strategical courses to take, and no two people will agree on the perfect course of action, which is why second-guessing is perfectly legitimate. And it's why every fan of every team tends to be hard on their manager.

I certainly think Trembley makes mistakes. But I don't think he makes more frequent mistakes, or more significant mistakes, than any other manager. Nor do I think he's noticeably better than any other manager, strategically. You mention Trembley's poor bullpen management, but NOBODY likes how their manager handles a bullpen, whether it's Joe Torre or Terry Francona or Bobby Cox. I bet if someone polled baseball fans from all 30 teams about how good their manager is at handling a bullpen, all 30 would get a failing grade. It doesn't mean they're all horrible, just that fans tend to be more critical when it comes to bullpen management.

It's my Theory of Managers. In-game, they're all pretty much the same. Maybe you're right and that means they're all very bad. But I think in-game strategy is very much overhyped. As I think Drungo mentioned, a manager's in-game moves have very little effect on a team's performance in the long run. I'd be very surprised if any one manager was 3-4 games better or worse than any other based solely on their in-game moves.

So when judging a manager, I pretty much exclude their in-game strategy altogether. The much more important aspects of what goes on behind closed doors, like communicating with your players and earning their respect. As you mentioned, Trembley does that very well, and to me that holds a lot more weight than who he does or doesn't bring in from the bullpen.

This post shouldn't go ignored.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I actually tend to agree that DT is probably not much worse than most managers in terms of in game managing...I think a lot of managers are poor at it but them being poor at it and DT being poor at it, doesn't make him better..It just makes him poor as well.

This is a very key point.

Some people look at this as, "Well, every other manager does the same things, so why are we worried about it in our case."

Shouldn't we be looking at this as, "If every manager is mediocre, then wouldn't having a better manager give us an advantage?"

Isn't that the whole point of all of the praise for Earl Weaver? He did things that other managers either didn't or didn't do enough and gave the team an advantage.

[MCL1021]

Was DJ to credit for this, or did he inherit better players that made him look like a better manager? He had 3 pitchers in each of 1996 and 1997 pitch more than 200 IP. In 1997 Kamenicki pitched 175 innings. That right there is going to keep your BP rested. Geez.

However, looking over those rosters, I see that in 1996 there were 13 saves by pitchers other than Myers, the closer, and in 1997, there were 14 saves by pitchers other than the closer. In the 2008, there were only 4 saves made by pitchers other than Sherrill... and he was hurt for a big chunk of that season.

It sounds like DJ knew when to give a BP pitcher the night off, especially the closer. He also had a BP where he trusted most of his pitchers in tight spots. DT seems to have a BP he uses when winning and then while losing.

Once the pitching gets better overall....this won't be such a glaring mark with DT.

Davey had a very, very solid bullpen that he trusted night in and night out...and a rotation that generally was going 6-7 + innings pitching almost every night (Erickson, Mussina)

He did seem to rest his guys at the right times though...but once we have a solid 'pen throughout, I don't think we'll see too much of a two-fold bullpen (one when winning, one when losing)

I like DT....as far as X's and O's, there are a few times when he makes me scratch my head, but probably no more than if I was closely following most other managers. I still say he's the right manager for this team, this year and beyond.

[Lucky Jim]

This is a very key point.

Some people look at this as, "Well, every other manager does the same things, so why are we worried about it in our case."

Shouldn't we be looking at this as, "If every manager is mediocre, then wouldn't having a better manager give us an advantage?"

Isn't that the whole point of all of the praise for Earl Weaver? He did things that other managers either didn't or didn't do enough and gave the team an advantage.

Did he? In his first two seasons? And how much were his flaws hidden by a talented squad while he learned on the job?

The O's don't have advantages right now. We're talking about creativity to form a salve. And that's a risky thing.

[Skeletor]

So when judging a manager, I pretty much exclude their in-game strategy altogether. The much more important aspects of what goes on behind closed doors, like communicating with your players and earning their respect. As you mentioned, Trembley does that very well, and to me that holds a lot more weight than who he does or doesn't bring in from the bullpen.

How do we know this is still true? And, if it is, how many more bad hit and run calls and questionable bullpen calls that put games out of reach is it going to take before it isn't true anymore? They may respect him as a man (I'm sure they do) but there has to come a time when they question his baseball knowledge and doubts start about him being the right guy for the job.

[PaulFolk]

How do we know this is still true? And, if it is, how many more bad hit and run calls and questionable bullpen calls that put games out of reach is it going to take before it isn't true anymore? They may respect him as a man (I'm sure they do) but there has to come a time when they question his baseball knowledge and doubts start about him being the right guy for the job.

I guess we don't, but I certainly haven't heard any rumblings about players being unhappy with Trembley.

[Lucky Jim]

I guess we don't, but I certainly haven't heard any rumblings about players being unhappy with Trembley.

Save for ElSid's cryptic rumors.