UNC's Ackley calls for gushing

[allstar1579]

I buy the arm argument (sort of), but I don't buy the power argument. It's not that I question your judgement, it's that I question the stereotype of 3b as a purely power position. A lot of people seem to think it has to be, but I don't buy it. I'd think a guy with 15-25 hr power plays just fine at thrid if he brings other value to the table.

I think what he's telling you is don't bet on him to be a 15-25 HR guy. It's hard to say just yet, but his numbers are really inflated from the metal bat and feasting on some bad pitching a few times. He might end up being a 10-12 HR guy in the majors.

The arm I think is the big reason, it won't cut it at 3b, it's been the issue he hasn't been able to play much at CF, so a position that takes more arm isn't going to work.

[Stotle]

I buy the arm argument (sort of), but I don't buy the power argument. It's not that I question your judgement, it's that I question the stereotype of 3b as a purely power position. A lot of people seem to think it has to be, but I don't buy it. I'd think a guy with 15-25 hr power plays just fine at thrid if he brings other value to the table.

You see 15-25 coming from Ackley? I see 10-20, with most years closer to 10-15.

[LookinUp]

Yeah, my impression was that he was going to be an extreme line drive hitter, and that would eventually turn into a little more power. Basically, I think he's similar to Snyder.

You all have a much greater ability to judge their potential than I do though. A couple of games on TV can only tell you so much.

[Stotle]

Yeah, my impression was that he was going to be an extreme line drive hitter, and that would eventually turn into a little more power. Basically, I think he's similar to Snyder.

You all have a much greater ability to judge their potential than I do though. A couple of games on TV can only tell you so much.

I think he needs to tweak his general swing plane to hit for noticeable power as a pro, and that would cut down his hitting tool by preventing his bat from staying in the hit zone quite as much. I don't love his swing, so id prefer him in center where he's valuable with a gap-to-gap approach.

[thundercleetz]

Nice in theory. Are there any teams willing to keep him in the minors for an extra year or two in order to let him learn the position? My guess is no. Same reason I had Lawrie as an overdraft by Milwaukee last year. Good bat, but mostly for an up-the-middle position, and he really didn't project there as a pro. Milwaukee decided he had the skill set to catch (which he does) so they said he'd be molded as a catcher. Fast forward to this spring and Milwaukee announced he's no longer going to catch.

Now, maybe Ackley picks it up really quickly, but it's a pretty tough position at the pro level. My guess is he's in the OF. Hopefully he can improve his routes and reads enough to be a solid CFer, because if not he may be a bit of a reach at 1:2. I mean, he looks pretty Damon to me, and I'm not sure I'd want Damon as my first baseman (or really my LF in his younger days).

With B-Rob, I believe we would be willing to keep him in the minors for an extra year or two in order to let him learn the position. Although, two years is a little extreme. One year would probably give us enough of a gage to see if he had the potential to play 2B reguarly or not.

[Stotle]

With B-Rob, I believe we would be willing to keep him in the minors for an extra year or two in order to let him learn the position. Although, two years is a little extreme. One year would probably give us enough of a gage to see if he had the potential to play 2B reguarly or not.

I don't know. I think I disagree. It isn't one year, it's one year "extra" -- beyond what it would take for him to progress offensively. So, figure he has to spend a full year at HiA, rather than half a year. Figure on a full year at AA, then at least part of a year at AAA. If he's a late sign (which I imagine he will be), you are now looking at 2012ish for an arrival time. That's a fair amount extra to spend on development considering how much you're likely spending in up-front bonus.

Also, he needs time in center, so if you spend the year and it becomes obvious he can't stick at second, add another half a season to make sure he gets the needed reps in the outfield.

I just don't see BAL (or any other team) doing that. I imagine he'll be shifted to the outfield and progressed as quickly as his bat will take him. For what it's worth, I a a believer that he could learn second and be adequate to pretty good there.