Hernandez - 5/22 start

[Sports Guy]

You never have anything good to say about him. When he's throwing 70% for strikes that should BODE well!!! There's nothing that Hernandez can do that would change your mind. It's obvious you don't like Hernandez.

Wow, that is a pretty pathetic response.

I already mentioned that this is best outing I have ever seen from an Orioles MiLer...To say I don't like him is a joke.

You really need to learn how to read and understand what people are saying...All I have done is repeat many of the same things Tony, Stotle and many other scouts and "experts" have said about Hernandez.

Stop being so ridiculous about it.

Let me ask you this...You think it is a good thing that it takes him a lot of pitches to get through 5 innings normally?

You think that bodes well for him pitching against patient ML hitters?

[slappy12]

Wow, that is a pretty pathetic response.

I already mentioned that this is best outing I have ever seen from an Orioles MiLer...To say I don't like him is a joke.

You really need to learn how to read and understand what people are saying...All I have done is repeat many of the same things Tony, Stotle and many other scouts and "experts" have said about Hernandez.

Stop being so ridiculous about it.

Let me ask you this...You think it is a good thing that it takes him a lot of pitches to get through 5 innings normally?

You think that bodes well for him pitching against patient ML hitters?

You're pathetic!! You say that and then you go about your normal way of attacking Hernandez. It's obvious that he has changed some minds by now. I"ll bet that Tony probably would be changing his mind by now. But it's pretty obvious to me your dislike for Hernandez. Also, about those 2 starts that he was cut short because of pitch count and power outages, let's not throw those out what if he went 7 innings in those games, so who knows what would of happened???

[Sports Guy]

You're pathetic!! You say that and then you go about your normal way of attacking Hernandez. It's obvious that he has changed some minds by now. I"ll bet that Tony probably would be changing his mind by now. But it's pretty obvious to me your dislike for Hernandez. Also, about those 2 starts that he was cut short because of pitch count and power outages, let's not throw those out what if he went 7 innings in those games, so who knows what would of happened???

Saying I dislike DH is pretty much as dumb as anything OldFan says...And no, that's not a compliment.

You and Orioole28(btw, are you his parents or something?) need to understand the difference between liking and disliking a person and having doubts about their ability to be a starter in the major leagues.

For whatever reason, you can't figure out that difference.

[slappy12]

Saying I dislike DH is pretty much as dumb as anything OldFan says...And no, that's not a compliment.

You and Orioole28(btw, are you his parents or something?) need to understand the difference between liking and disliking a person and having doubts about their ability to be a starter in the major leagues.

For whatever reason, you can't figure out that difference.

OH ok, now that's funny?? Just because I like Hernandez and I sided with Orioole28, I'm his daddy!! BTW have you ever seen him pitch??

[Sports Guy]

OH ok, now that's funny?? Just because I like Hernandez and I sided with Orioole28, I'm his daddy!! BTW have you ever seen him pitch??

No but I have read several scouting reports...I have looked and analyzed his stats.

Everyone says the same thing about him...Inconsistent secondary stuff, iffy command and is likely to become a reliever...Then, I go to his stats and see a player that throws a lot of pitchers, walks a lot(well actually, he did up until this year...not as bad this year) and doesn't go deep into games.

When you combine those things, its not very difficult to come up with the hypothesis that he is likely to struggle as a starter in the major leagues.

Now, why that means I hate him, i have no idea.

I guess you feel Stotle, Tony, the writers and scouts at BA and BP and anyone else who has talked about him hates him as well.

Why I get singled out I don't know but I just share the same opinion that almost everyone else shares.

I think the kid is going to be a great closer...maybe even Papelbon great.

That hardly means I hate him...It just means I don;t like his outlook as a starter.

Again, if you and Orioole28 can't figure out the difference between that and hatred, then I feel sorry for you.

BTW, i hope to see him pitch very soon..in Baltimore.

[Frobby]

No but I have read several scouting reports...I have looked and analyzed his stats.

Everyone says the same thing about him...Inconsistent secondary stuff, iffy command and is likely to become a reliever...Then, I go to his stats and see a player that throws a lot of pitchers, walks a lot(well actually, he did up until this year...not as bad this year) and doesn't go deep into games.

When you combine those things, its not very difficult to come up with the hypothesis that he is likely to struggle as a starter in the major leagues.

SG, when you refer to what "everyone says" about Hernandez, you are talking about what they said in previous years or over the winter. But things change. Hernandez was very impressive in spring training according to what I read, he has lowered his BB rate considerably, and instead of sacrificing strikeouts to do it, his K rate is higher than ever, even though he is at a higher level of competition. And, he just threw 7.1 innings and struck out 14 while allowing 3 hits without walking a batter.

Now, I am not saying that Hernandez has now proven that he has eliminated all of his weaknesses, or that we should jump to conclusions based on one great start. Yeah, there are still some issues about how deep he can get into games on a consistent basis. But we have to allow for the pretty decent possibility that he has improved his game to the point where he can be a pretty good starting pitcher at the major league level.

Basically, this is the exact same discussion as you were raising about Reimold, wondering why last year's scouting reports seemed to be wrong. They weren't wrong. Athletes who work hard on their game sometimes get better and eliminate or minimize their weaknesses. And right now I'd say there's a growing body of evidence that Hernandez has done just that.

[Sports Guy]

SG, when you refer to what "everyone says" about Hernandez, you are talking about what they said in previous years or over the winter. But things change. Hernandez was very impressive in spring training according to what I read, he has lowered his BB rate considerably, and instead of sacrificing strikeouts to do it, his K rate is higher than ever, even though he is at a higher level of competition. And, he just threw 7.1 innings and struck out 14 while allowing 3 hits without walking a batter.

Now, I am not saying that Hernandez has now proven that he has eliminated all of his weaknesses, or that we should jump to conclusions based on one great start. Yeah, there are still some issues about how deep he can get into games on a consistent basis. But we have to allow for the pretty decent possibility that he has improved his game to the point where he can be a pretty good starting pitcher at the major league level.

Basically, this is the exact same discussion as you were raising about Reimold, wondering why last year's scouting reports seemed to be wrong. They weren't wrong. Athletes who work hard on their game sometimes get better and eliminate or minimize their weaknesses. And right now I'd say there's a growing body of evidence that Hernandez has done just that.

Oh I am fine with that...I already acknowledged the lower BB rate...I am even fine with him getting a chance...But the bottom line is the IP are an issue and you do have to be concerned about that as you get into the majors..I mean, what is DH going to do against patient teams like Boston and NY? He will throw 95 pitches in 4 innings against those teams.

That's what i worry about but hey, if they want to bring him up..great. I look forward to seeing him pitch and seeing if he has turned the corner and can make it as a starter...That would be great and if not, I feel he will be a great reliever...Like I said, he may even be Papelbon great.

Besides, I have made this argument before and the peanut gallery jumped on me as well...So, its not just this year.

[Sports Guy]

Does Tony and staff HATE David Hernandez too?:

With his ability to miss bats with his fastball and slider, Hernandez has the weapons to be a solid back end of the bullpen guy. If he's able to continue to improve the consistency of his off speed pitches, command, and limit his pitch counts, he may be able to find a niche at the end of a rotation.

His projected role is closer, according to his write up where he was ranked #11 by OH.

Did Orioole28 send Tony PM's on here calling him names like he just did with me?

Just wondering if I am the only one who gets that "special treatment" for sharing the same opinion.

[Moose Milligan]

Sounds like Hernandez (when he's "on" as he was tonight) really tries to attack and pound the strike zone.

Can anyone who has actually seen him pitch say if thats true or not?

[orioole28]

Does Tony and staff HATE David Hernandez too?:

His projected role is closer, according to his write up where he was ranked #11 by OH.

Did Orioole28 send Tony PM's on here calling him names like he just did with me?

Just wondering if I am the only one who gets that "special treatment" for sharing the same opinion.

Like Frobby said which obviously hasn't pentrated your thick skull, but that was said earlier in the the year and I believe Tony et al, will be soon be changing their mind if Hernandez continues to pitch like he has all year. Not like you who set in cement!!

[Sports Guy]

Like Frobby said which obviously hasn't pentrated your thick skull, but that was said earlier in the the year and I believe Tony et al, will be soon be changing their mind if Hernandez continues to pitch like he has all year. Not like you who set in cement!!

LOL...So, why is that Tony and all will change their minds but I won't?

Why is it that they get the benefit of the doubt and you not whining to them but I get it?

LOL...You know what, I guess I have just come to the conclusion that you are unable to talk about this as an intelligent adult.

[Lucky Jim]

Sounds like Hernandez (when he's "on" as he was tonight) really tries to attack and pound the strike zone.

Can anyone who has actually seen him pitch say if thats true or not?

The only game I watched this year, he maintained his velocity into the 6th (91-93) and had a very good curve/slider (looked more like the latter) with good tilt and depth.

He ran into trouble, and his pitch count was kept low. But it wasn't because he couldn't go deeper.

His control was good, and while his command within the zone wasn't perfect, it wasn't erratic, either.

[Frobby]

Sounds like Hernandez (when he's "on" as he was tonight) really tries to attack and pound the strike zone.

Can anyone who has actually seen him pitch say if thats true or not?

Well, vatech1994 went to a game back on April 19 and filed a detailed report. Since he's one of our most astute observers of pitchers, I thought I'd reprint his report on Hernandez in full:

David Hernandez

This is the first time I've seen him pitch. I have a lot of observations. I'm really glad I got the chance to watch him

First, the repetoire:

He was throwing his four seamer from 90-93. His location was typically up with this pitch, but he did throw a few down near the knees.

He was throwing his two seamer anywhere from 85 - 89 mph. This thing has a ton of movement on it because he got a bunch of swings-and-misses. He kept this pitch down very consistently.

His curve/slider was pretty darn impressive. He was throwing it 77-79 mph and it had really good late movement both down and away from righties. He got some very anemic swings on this pitch including about 4 on pitches in the dirt. He never hung this pitch at all. It was consistently down.

His change up was the most erratic pitch. He threw is about 75-78 mph. I saw some pretty nice ones, but even the good ones don't have a lot of drop. However, I also saw two that he really televised via a slower arm motion.

I saw velocity variation from 75 to 93 mph and he rarely threw two consecutive pitches that weren't several MPH apart. I can't emphasize enough how much he was disrupting the timing of the hitters.

Hernandez does hide the ball well. It is quite clear that his fastball jumps on people (even the 4 seamer) as he got a lot of weak foul balls over the opposite dugout. His motion and mechanics are quite good.

I was actually very impressed with his control. He kept the ball down very well unless he was trying to go up and those balls were above the belt. I saw almost nothing between the mid-thigh and the belt. He was ahead of virtually every hitter, but his pitch count got up because there were so many swings-and-misses and foul balls. It reminded me of Erik Bedard.

A couple other tidbits:

Hernandez gave up a ringing double on a high fastball leading off the second inning to the #5 hitter. You could see him get mad on the mound. He proceeded to shake off the catcher more in the next 8 pitches than he did the rest of the game combined. He kept going to his four seamer and he was clearly overthrowing as this was the only time in the game where his control got a little off. However, the catcher went out to him two hitters later and he gained back his composure.

He definitely lost velocity as the game went on. In the fifth his four seamer was 88-89 mph and his two seamer was 85-86 mph.

He isn't a tall guy at all. He is fairly thick, both muscular and probably a fairly high bodyfat for an athlete. I can imagine it would be tough for him to maintain his arm speed late in the game. He does seem like more of a reliever to me, but his stuff is starter stuff. He just needs some stamina.

I get the feeling this guy is very headstrong. You can just sort of feel a chip on his shoulder. I don't think he is a bad guy though, just motivated to prove people wrong. He was clearly not happy to get removed after the ridiculous blooper that fell in to start to the 5th inning, but he didn't show up his manager.

He made a few people look so bad that several of them stopped trying to do any damage against him and instead just started chopping at the ball. This included the clean up hitter who later hit a homer off Deza. It looked like his offspeed stuff might be a bit susceptible to this sort of approach, but he'd blow the fastball by these guys if he was watching the bat closely.

He gave up a few hits, but one was a slow grounder lost in the sun (more on that later). Another was a bloop. The double by Brandon Jones in the first was actually just an accidental medium liner down the left field line by the lefty hitter because he was behind on the pitch. The only really hard hit ball was liner by the #5 hitter to lead off the second on the first pitch.

Overall, I was mighty impressed by him. He had the best stuff of any pitcher that pitched for either team and it wasn't close. He got an amazing amount of swings and misses. His stuff is definitely electric. Nobody looked comfortable against him.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79548&highlight=hernandez

[snatch311]

Seems like Hernandez has good command every other season:

4.5 in '06

2.9 in '07

4.4 in '08

2.7 in '09

Again, he led the Carolina League in K's. He led the Eastern League in K's. He's second to Tommy Hanson for the IL lead in K's but his K/9 is higher.

What does that tell you? I mean, maybe he's not meant to be a starter, but I have the feeling in the bigs, he could be the kind of guy to throw 80 innings and strike 110+ out.

[Say O!]

Well, vatech1994 went to a game back on April 19 and filed a detailed report. Since he's one of our most astute observers of pitchers, I thought I'd reprint his report on Hernandez in full:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79548&highlight=hernandez

Frobby, thanks for always being the voice of reason and rationality on these boards. Both this post and your prior one...