Berken - what did you think?

[crawdad]

One start. He's actually been improving each year in the minors. His control has been very good the last year + this year. You seem to be reaching conclusions off of one start. He was obviously very effective in AA last year and even better so far this year in AAA. To make definitive statements like "he is not good with location" are very foolish at this point, but hey, don't let me stop you.

Actually, it looks like the reverse is true.

He is not good with location. He has issues with both command and control, depending on the offering.

And, eh, I'm not sure why you are so emboldened to try to stop me. I did not realize I was causing such harm.

[theobird]

I liked his start very much. The guy has much better stuff than I thought. He hit 96 with the fastball, and he was throwing strikes all night. I'll tell you this, IMO he has a much greater shot of sticking in the rotation than Bergeson does.

[crawdad]

I'm not disappointed if they wind up being good relievers and we have 5 very good starters. I just try to keep an open mind that they might be good starters as well. It's much too early to draw conclusions off of one start. You say that you're using his minor league record and college record as well. Well, he's not the same pitcher I saw during his junior year in college. Mechanically, he's much better. His stuff, particularly his fastball has gotten much better since he was written up as a prospect at Frederick.

He is a much more polished pitcher than his Clemson days. Careers have a trajectory, but eventually you wind up getting limited by pitch quality and motor coordination. Again, I am not making conclusions off of one start. I am making a projection based on his entire body of work and how that compares historically to other bodies of work. I find it hard to believe that you actually think you cannot come to some sort of projection based on the amount of data present already. I mean . . . we can say rather definitively that Wieters will have a better career than Eli Whiteside and Wieters has never caught a single inning yet.

[crawdad]

Aren't you annoying enough when you are part of the argument. Now you have to be annoying and get involved in someone elses? Don't you ever have a different opinion than someone else or question their opinion? I think his opinion is premature and based on very little evidence. That's my opinion. Why don't you stay out of it and go make 30,000 posts in some other thread.

Do you ever not pick fights with people? I'm not sure why you have to make things so personal. For once, can you stick to baseball instead of painting yourself into some sort of victimhood?

[crawdad]

I saw some things that made me happy tonight. I thought he had good command of his curveball. He was definitely throwing the curveball for the corners rather than the center of the plate which says something to me. The curve wasn't phenomenal, but it wasn't bad either.

I saw some good change ups. I saw some telegraphed change ups. I think the change up will be a good pitch against middle and lower tier lefties.

I saw a couple very nice tight, late sliders. He didn't throw many of them.

His fastball movement and location were all over the place. He definitely threw some FB with nice late movement though the movement was more lateral than down. However, he also threw some sitters. His location with his fastball definitely needs to be lower in general.

I think he has significantly better stuff than Bergeson, but less command. I like his chances to stay in the rotation more than Bergeson, because I see signs that his command may be improving.

BTW, the line drive to Huff in the first wasn't crushed at all. It was a jam shot that had a bit of humpback to it.

As others have written, if this guy is not even a top 10 prospect we should be in very, very good shape.

I agree that he has a better chance to stick around longer than Bergesen. Batters were getting a bead on him though and he needs to miss more bats.

[SteveA]

I thought he was left handed!?!

Are you perhaps confusing him with Kurt Birkins, a lefty pitcher who came through our system a few years ago?

[Guest rochester]

Wow..his major league debut - in weather that was horrible - just amazing how his future is already laid out for him. 5th starter on an ok team - middle relief - doesn't miss enough bats - oops, then I see the ummm.argument? never mind.

Anyway, for his first start what impressed me most was keeping it together when things got tough - confidence.

Most important, congrats on his first start/win... I agree with VaTech (too much:D) that his stuff appears better than BB's.

[crawdad]

If Berken had hit his location on a lot more pitches tonight and thrown a 7 inning shutout (which we know is possible since Chris Waters did it) would you have come one here and said anything different?

I'd probably say what I said when Waters did it. That it was a promising effort, but that I would like to see him repeat that a few more times because his track record and his pitch quality are not really the kind of thing that would allow him to maintain that level of performance. Likewise, if Chris Tillman comes up and gets rocked in his first outing . . . I will say that it was a disappointing effort, but that he should rebound because his stuff is just too good to disappoint.

These guys do not exist in vacuums. Talent is not a switch that automatically flicks on when a player reaches the Major Leagues. Past performance will indicate much. It does not always explain everything as no projection criteria is flawless, but to throw our hands in the air and declare that nothing can be learned of a few seasons in the minors . . . that a single MLB start is some sort of wondrous, abstract thing is just not a tenable position from my perspective.

[Sports Guy]

I'd probably say what I said when Waters did it. That it was a promising effort, but that I would like to see him repeat that a few more times because his track record and his pitch quality are not really the kind of thing that would allow him to maintain that level of performance. Likewise, if Chris Tillman comes up and gets rocked in his first outing . . . I will say that it was a disappointing effort, but that he should rebound because his stuff is just too good to disappoint.

These guys do not exist in vacuums. Talent is not a switch that automatically flicks on when a player reaches the Major Leagues. Past performance will indicate much. It does not always explain everything as no projection criteria is flawless, but to throw our hands in the air and declare that nothing can be learned of a few seasons in the minors . . . that a single MLB start is some sort of wondrous, abstract thing is just not a tenable position from my perspective.

Save your breath.

[TonySoprano]

By the way, after a thorough analysis of his game, I have concluded that he is better than Adam Eaton.

[insert players name here]is better than Adam Eaton:D

[hoosiers]

I saw the fourth and fifth and was pretty impressed with JB hanging around the strike zone and having good movement on his pitches. He kept things down too. He seemed to leave a few hittable pitches in the middle of the plate, but those seemed to be down as well. I thought if the FB to Wells had been a bit higher the ball would have been in the LF seats.

I also think JB has better stuff than BB. It looks like Kranitz has some material to work with.

[clarence]

vatech, I too thought a few of the sliders looked great. What would keep him from mixing this in a little more?

When the arguments start becoming whether a guy is good enough to stick as a starter or as a reliever, we know progress is being made. I like that we are starting to have these issues. If DHernandez looks good on Thursday, I sure wish we could send Koji to the pen.

[Sports Guy]

I saw the fourth and fifth and was pretty impressed with JB hanging around the strike zone and having good movement on his pitches. He kept things down too. He seemed to leave a few hittable pitches in the middle of the plate, but those seemed to be down as well. I thought if the FB to Wells had been a bit higher the ball would have been in the LF seats.

I also think JB has better stuff than BB. It looks like Kranitz has some material to work with.

The JB vs BB discussion is very interesting...Judging by their peripherals, JB is the better long term bet as a starter...He gets more K's, doesn't walk many and I don't believe he gave up many homers.

What I am not sure about is the GB rate...That is BB's saving grace.

Ultimately, I would guess neither is a long term bet as a starter, especially with the talent we have around them but they may be able to eat some innings and stop us from adding more Eatons over the next year or so.

[Mackus]

We agree on one thing. Amazing. One start doesn't tell you a whole lot. So you had your opinion on Berken well before tonight. Nothing he did tonight was going to change it anyway.

When I look at his stats I see a pitcher who has improved as he's advanced. That shows me that he's still improving as a pitcher. I wouldn't pidgeonhole him into anthing just yet, so that's where I think we differ.

He's not pidgeonholing him. He's still just making a projection. That's how he thinks Berken will produce based on the times he's seen him and his college and minor league track record. Not closing the door on potential unexpected improvement, but if he doesn't make many more strides than he's made thus far, and he's already 25 so that's fairly likely, he thinks he'll be a backend starter.

Not having one start change your opinions of him, good or bad (provided you are qualified enough to already have a valid opinion of him, which I'm not), is a more disciplined action than changing your opinions of him based on one start.

Not sure why you are jumping down his throat on this one.

[Sports Guy]

He's not pidgeonholing him. He's still just making a projection. That's how he thinks Berken will produce based on the times he's seen him and his college and minor league track record. Not closing the door on potential unexpected improvement, but if he doesn't make many more strides than he's made thus far, and he's already 25 so that's fairly likely, he thinks he'll be a backend starter.

Not having one start change your opinions of him, good or bad (provided you are qualified enough to already have a valid opinion of him, which I'm not), is a more disciplined action than changing your opinions of him based on one start.

Not sure why you are jumping down his throat on this one.

It's his time of the month.