Matusz vs Smoak - Jim Callis perspective

[LookinUp]

Ultimately I agree that I'd have been tickled with either pick. I'd love to have Smoak in this organization just like I love having Matusz.

All I'm really trying to do was expand upon the debate. Everyone seems to want to talk about the Oriole's need or relative comparisons between Matusz and Smoak. I just don't think enough attention was being paid to the positional difference.

That is all...

[wayne25]

here's my final take on this.

Look at this draft. It is very weak in position players and swimming in pitching.

The 2008 draft was weaker in pitching and strong in position players.

We took a pitcher in a strong hitting class and now that we need a position player to balance our minor league talent, we have a weak draft for that. We had a chance to take posey, smoak or beckham. Only dustin ackley might be better than those three out of all the position players available in this draft.

Now that wieters and reimold have been promoted, besides snyder, our position player talent is very weak.

Smoak could have been our starting first baseman as soon as next season imo. And his production would be very cheap compared to a fa that would produce the same. Nor would we have to trade any assets to get him. The fact that he was teammates with wieters would just be an added bonus. The stars were perfectly aligned for us to take him, and we passed.

People can say we don't need smoak because we have snyder, but snyder's power is still in question as is his patience. He just simply is not as good of a hitter or a defender at 1b. We could have and should have had smoak and snyder. Imagine that lineup...

I know we are going to take another pitcher in this draft as only ackley makes sense at #5 and he'll be gone, i only hope that taking that pitcher allows us to deal some pitching and get a young corner if impact bat that we so desperately need. It's just a shame to miss out on that bat and have to skip a year in the draft to find that talent or trade talent to get a player we could have had just for the cost of a signing bonus.

It just goes to show bats like justin smoak are not that easy to find.

amen, brother...

[Stotle]

Find one in this draft after the first round. It's not as easy as you think.

Poythress is the only one available that I can see in this draft.

Last year's draft was rare with the all the top college positional talent available. The Orioles should have taken advantage and left the pitching to the later rounds or the 2009 draft.

Interestingly enough, Poythress doesn't really project to mash as a pro. More of a solid power, gap-to-gap guy. His bat speed is "meh" -- his approach isn't necessarily suited to hard contact against better pitching.

For my money, Tommy Mendonca is the best PURE masher in the draft. He plays a very good 3B and BAL will likely have a shot at him in the 3rd round. Some swing quirks drop his stock, so he'll need to clean up the mechanics.

Malm, Davidson, and Borchering could all be true mashers. Ryan Wheeler has the stroke and approach to become one, though his swing plane is more line drive.

[hoosiers]

Now that Wieters and Reimold have been promoted, besides Snyder, our position player talent is very weak.

Why is this a factor?

With NR's promotion, we have four position players 25 or under with three having all-star potential (Jones, Markakis, Wieters). IIRC, none are within four years of FA. Further, Roberts just signed a LT deal and also produces at an all-star/near AS level.

The premium talent in our organization overall is heavily skewed to the offense. We would need all of Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta to pan out to make it a remotely close discussion - if we had drafted Smoak instead of Matusz, the overall talent would be even more heavily skewed to the hitters - IMO - directly in contradiction with JT's point.

I like Justin Smoak just fine. He could be a tremendous offensive talent, but I have no issue with our scouting director taking a pitcher instead.

Finally, I also think people underplay the "safety" factor in the Matusz pick. Scouts said he was a sure 3 with a good chance of being a 2.

[olehippi]

Well, i didn't mean to be rescinding. Heck, I don't even know what that means!

What I meant to point out was that Eaton isn't league average. You can go back in history and quote stats, but a team with the 2009 version of Adam Eaton couldn't win with a lineup full of Babe Ruths. It just makes the comparison difficult because he's certainly not comparable to an average fielder (which I assume is slightly better than Mora).

To answer your question, I don't think I can answer your question. Neither are likely to win the AL East much less the world series. However, I'd guess the team with better pitching stands a much better shot.

OK....I'll rescind the rescinding statement.....

But you really made my point....a team of current (or past, for that matter) Adam Eaton caliber pitchers couldn't win with a lineup full of Babe Ruth caliber hitters. That's why I think the Smoak vs. Matusz argument is without merit. Pitching wins.

[allstar1579]

Find one in this draft after the first round. It's not as easy as you think.

Poythress is the only one available that I can see in this draft.

Last year's draft was rare with the all the top college positional talent available. The Orioles should have taken advantage and left the pitching to the later rounds or the 2009 draft.

Marc Krauss - Ohio

Chris Dominguez - Louisville

Mike Spina - Cincinnati

Chase Austin - Elon

Daniel Kassouf - Belmont Abbey (might not be eligible this year)

Keith Towne - Angelo St.

Drew Hedman - Pomona-Pitzer

That's just college. There are some HS kids out there with raw power too.

Poythress isn't real impressive himself. He's got some power if he can make contact, but I don't know how likely that is above A+.

[JTrea81]

Finally, I also think people underplay the "safety" factor in the Matusz pick. Scouts said he was a sure 3 with a good chance of being a 2.

There is no safety factor when drafting a pitcher. And the Orioles have no business drafting a #3 starter with the #4 pick in the draft.

They could have signed Randy Wolf if they wanted a #3 starter.

The hitters that they passed on were much more of a sure thing and more worthy of that 4th pick IMO.

[allstar1579]

There is no safety factor when drafting a pitcher. And the Orioles have no business drafting a #3 starter with the #4 pick in the draft.

They could have signed Randy Wolf if they wanted a #3 starter.

The hitters that they passed on were much more of a sure thing and more worthy of that 4th pick IMO.

When you hear that a guy can be a #3 or whatever, it is almost always downplayed from what he should be. If they are saying 3, he has a good shot at being a #2 which is an ace without the leadership that being an ace entails. All the top guys beyond Strasburg look right now like they could be a 3 or 4, that is just what you get when you are drafting guys that are not finished products (and no one in the draft is).

Wolf is a #3 starter on a non-playoff team(aside from how he's pitching right now), but they are saying Matusz can be a 2/3 on a good team.

[Fairfax Bird]

Now that Wieters and Reimold have been promoted, besides Snyder, our position player talent is very weak.

Why is our position player talent very weak? They may have been promoted, but they are still with the organization.

Wieters (23), Reimold (25), Pie (24), Jones (23), Snyder (22), Markakis (25). Doesn't seem weak to me, just seems that all of our "prospects" - Snyder are already in the show.

I get it though ... never draft a pitcher, they all breakdown.

[hoosiers]

There is no safety factor when drafting a pitcher. And the Orioles have no business drafting a #3 starter with the #4 pick in the draft.

They could have signed Randy Wolf if they wanted a #3 starter.

The hitters that they passed on were much more of a sure thing and more worthy of that 4th pick IMO.

Who said the Os drafted a 3? No one here did. Just your typical manipulations of what others post here.

No one ever said the Os "wanted a #3 starter" when drafting Matusz. Even using JT's thought process here, however, the cost of Matusz v Wolfe over Wolfe's contract is exactly why our FO has made it a priority to "grow the arms". When Matusz reaches his expected peak as a 2, the Wolfe comparison will be even more lopsided.

[Mackus]

amen, brother...

You are completely correct that Smoak is a great player, a great prospect, and would have been a great pick.

However, when you say that he definitively was the better pick, and that it is clear that taking Matusz was a mistake, that's where you go from having a reasonable argument to having no logical basis for your statement.

Preferring Smoak to Matusz is fine, I did too. Thinking Matusz wasn't a terrific pick is not fine, its just plain incorrect.

[JTrea81]

Who said the Os drafted a 3? No one here did. Just your typical manipulations of what others post here.

No one ever said the Os "wanted a #3 starter" when drafting Matusz. Even using JT's thought process here, however, the cost of Matusz v Wolfe over Wolfe's contract is exactly why our FO has made it a priority to "grow the arms". When Matusz reaches his expected peak as a 2, the Wolfe comparison will be even more lopsided.

It will cost more for the team to sign a player or to trade for a player that would put up the stats a Smoak, Posey or Beckham would provide during that same 6 year run.

It's actually cheaper to buy or trade for some arms to supplement, grow the rest of your arms and grow the bats.

Only buying bats and growing arms is not the way to approach building a competitive team. You have to be willing to do a little of the opposite of each.

[JTrea81]

Why is our position player talent very weak? They may have been promoted, but they are still with the organization.

Wieters (23), Reimold (25), Pie (24), Jones (23), Snyder (22), Markakis (25). Doesn't seem weak to me, just seems that all of our "prospects" - Snyder are already in the show.

I get it though ... never draft a pitcher, they all breakdown.

Players also reach FA in their early 30's or drop off when they hit their mid 30's. And you also want to stockpile position talent for injuries or for trades.

The great Orioles teams of the 60's and 70's always had a pipeline of minor league position talent ready to take over for the incumbent MLer.

We need to get back to that and right now our system is extremely lopsided with pitching.

[crawdad]

Players also reach FA in their early 30's or drop off when they hit their mid 30's. And you also want to stockpile position talent for injuries or for trades.

The great Orioles teams of the 60's and 70's always had a pipeline of minor league position talent ready to take over for the incumbent MLer.

We need to get back to that and right now our system is extremely lopsided with pitching.

Which teams are doing this? I mean, this is what everyone tries to do, but no one does it.

[allstar1579]

Which teams are doing this? I mean, this is what everyone tries to do, but no one does it.

Don't fall into the trap...walk away slowly.