The Reality of It All

[Pruke]

I'm guessing the first four picks of this draft play out with the following four players taken before we pick:

1 Steven Strasburg RHP You may have heard of him by now, 50.4% K 5.2%BB, great stuff, his tears may cure cancer 20.8 SDSU 1 ↔

2 Dustin Ackley CF Draft's best hitter, .405/.511/.744 with 44 BB and 27 K, ++ runner should cover ground in CF 21.2 UNC 2 ↔

3 Tyler Matzek LHP Clean mechanics, good control, deep pitch repitroire, projection and polish…so everything 18.5 HS 3 ↔

4 Donavan Tate CF Tremendous athlete with fantastic five tool potential, UNC commit could be pricey 18.6 HS 4 ↔

Assuming that happens, now we're talking about the REAL Orioles selection.

Who do you think we take if it plays out this way?

[RVAbird]

I would go with Crow or Green if the top 4 played out like that - and I'd be happy with the pick. Alex White wouldn't be too far behind for me, though I know I'm still higher on him than others. After that come the guys you've listed.

[BaltimoreFan]

Why would Crow not be included in this poll?

[jets4ever]

Why would Crow not be included in this poll?

I was wondering the same thing?

[dcterp]

Given this list Crow would be my guess.

[TheOtherRipken]

I think Matzek could drop to us, and if he does I will be furious if we pass on him.

[ChaosLex]

Wheeler will be our pick, IMO. I think we'll select him over Matzek IF they're both available. Jordan sees something about the kid he likes.

[Pruke]

Re: Crow - there's just as much buzz regarding Alex White, Matt Purke, Gibson, Turner, Wheeler - -

Does Crow have ANY red flags?

Just curious what consensus is on this 5th pick given that I think they got the first four right (even if the order may change in which they were selected.

[Pruke]

Here are some quick notes on some of the guys who might be available:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/193185-2009-mlb-mock-draft-picks-1-10/page/5)

Jacob Turner, RHP

Westminster Christian High School

Height: 6-5 Weight: 210 Age: 18 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: Low-90s

Command: His command is normally there, other times, not so much

Movement: Minimal movement, high in the zone

Grade: B+

Slider - Speed: Mid 70s

Command: Can miss high with this a lot, affects his pitch very much

Movement: A normal slider movement, if down in the zone it can be dominant

Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s

Command: Has average command over this, like most high schoolers

Movement: Near average movement

Grade: B

Jacob Turner measures in as one of the biggest pitchers in the draft, and that makes Detroit Tigers GM, Dave Dombrowski, drool, as that has been their forte of his first-rounders over the years. Turner’s big frame makes scouts think he could throw mid-90s consistently one day.

Because his fastball is a little slow, he turns to his slider down in the zone, since he misses with the heater up in the zone a lot. The changeup needs work and has very little movement.

He is committed to North Carolina for next season, and could probably use the college ball to ready his arm for professional ball. Turner needs to improve his velocity, he could definitely do that at N.C.

Alex White, RHP

North Carolina University

Height: 6-3 Weight: 200 Age: 20 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: High-80s – Low-90s

Command: Nothing to brag about, but this is his best commanded pitch

Movement: Tailing action

Grade: B-

Curveball - Speed: Low-80s

Command: Minimal command over the curve, just tries to get it over the plate

Movement: Average curveball ‘curve’

Grade: C+

Slider - Speed: Low-Mid 80s

Command: Plus command

Movement: Slips away from righties, most promising pitch from him

Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s

Command: This needs work on this pitch

Movement: When he throws one, its average, at best

Grade: C

The only other pitcher to have four pitches to show in this draft is Alex White, a junior at North Carolina. White was named the 2008 ACC Player of the Year from his successes last season in the Baby Blue uniform.

White has the ideal pitcher’s body. He was a two sport athlete in high school, as he also dominated the hard wood for the basketball team.

His arsenal of pitches are fantastic. A fastball that can hit 94 MPH with a slider that has a ton of potential. The changeup does need to improve though, especially the movement. He struggled early on in the 2009 season until he shut down the University of Miami in mid-April, now he’s back on track.

[Pruke]

What about Mychal Givens, RHP/SS

School & Hometown: Plant HS; Tampa, FL

Specs: 6′1, 190, Bats R, Throws R

Scouting Report: You can take a look at some video I took of Givens, what I thought of him from my first two looks, and my full thoughts from the initial Hot 30 rankings. Givens is an athletic and heady leader, a very good defender, and has a solid stroke with a little pop. I didn’t see enough size/projection (looks in person like 5′10, 175), power, or consistent hitability to project him as a first round pick, but realized that his track record, makeup, and performance give him upward mobility on draft boards. At the PG National showcase, he was up to 94 while flashing an above-average slider and changeup from a low 3/4 arm angle; similar to what I saw, but showing improvement across the board. As it stands now, there’s a slight lean from the people I’ve talked to for Givens to stay on the mound, but his progess on the mound and at the plate should be an interesting draft storyline to monitor.

(Markakis path to Majors from mound to field?)

[Stotle]

Here are some quick notes on some of the guys who might be available:

(http://bleacherreport.com/articles/193185-2009-mlb-mock-draft-picks-1-10/page/5)

Jacob Turner, RHP

Westminster Christian High School

Height: 6-5 Weight: 210 Age: 18 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: Low-90s

Command: His command is normally there, other times, not so much

Movement: Minimal movement, high in the zone

Grade: B+

Slider - Speed: Mid 70s

Command: Can miss high with this a lot, affects his pitch very much

Movement: A normal slider movement, if down in the zone it can be dominant

Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s

Command: Has average command over this, like most high schoolers

Movement: Near average movement

Grade: B

Jacob Turner measures in as one of the biggest pitchers in the draft, and that makes Detroit Tigers GM, Dave Dombrowski, drool, as that has been their forte of his first-rounders over the years. Turner’s big frame makes scouts think he could throw mid-90s consistently one day.

Because his fastball is a little slow, he turns to his slider down in the zone, since he misses with the heater up in the zone a lot. The changeup needs work and has very little movement.

He is committed to North Carolina for next season, and could probably use the college ball to ready his arm for professional ball. Turner needs to improve his velocity, he could definitely do that at N.C.

Alex White, RHP

North Carolina University

Height: 6-3 Weight: 200 Age: 20 Bats: R Throws: R

Fastball – Speed: High-80s – Low-90s

Command: Nothing to brag about, but this is his best commanded pitch

Movement: Tailing action

Grade: B-

Curveball - Speed: Low-80s

Command: Minimal command over the curve, just tries to get it over the plate

Movement: Average curveball ‘curve’

Grade: C+

Slider - Speed: Low-Mid 80s

Command: Plus command

Movement: Slips away from righties, most promising pitch from him

Grade: A-

Changeup – Speed: High 70s

Command: This needs work on this pitch

Movement: When he throws one, its average, at best

Grade: C

The only other pitcher to have four pitches to show in this draft is Alex White, a junior at North Carolina. White was named the 2008 ACC Player of the Year from his successes last season in the Baby Blue uniform.

White has the ideal pitcher’s body. He was a two sport athlete in high school, as he also dominated the hard wood for the basketball team.

His arsenal of pitches are fantastic. A fastball that can hit 94 MPH with a slider that has a ton of potential. The changeup does need to improve though, especially the movement. He struggled early on in the 2009 season until he shut down the University of Miami in mid-April, now he’s back on track.

I can't say I agree with much of this. How do you grade a curve and chenge for White and not mention his splitter, which flashes plus and has been his best and most consistent 2ndary pitch this year?

[Tmac3]

I think it is between three people, which ever falls. Ackley (could fall because the Mariners have recently said they might not want to pay the 6 million signing bonus, the Padres are cutting payroll so they do not want to pay the 6 mil, and the Pirates are cheap and will not pay the 6 mil) would be the best choice, he is the best hitter in the draft and if he gets by the Padres he is ours. Crow is arguably the best pitcher in the draft after Strasburg and already has Pro experience (he is pitching very well in an independent league right now). Lastly Scheppers, he is much like Crow, young and close to major league ready, those would be the best choices for the O's. Keith Law has Ackley ranked #2, Scheppers #3 and Crow #4, so all those picks could be good and end up being on the club in midsummer 2010. I don't believe the O's will take a high school prospect because the last high schooler that the O's took top ten has been in the minors for three years and is still only mediocre in Frederick (Billy Rowell).

[JTrea81]

If Ackley is there, he'll be the pick no doubt. Otherwise it will be Wheeler IMO...

[Big Mac]

If Ackley is there, he'll be the pick no doubt. Otherwise it will be Wheeler IMO...

I doubt Ackley drops to us, but if he does it would be foolish to pass on him, IMO.

I'd say in this scenario we take Crow, but of we end up taking Wheeler, I would be satisfied.

[Duke2010]

I'll be pretty happy with any of Crow, Matzek, or Wheeler. Of course, I have my preferences between them, but the upside is there for all three guys, and no matter what we'll be getting a high end pitching prospect.