The Reality of It All

[Greg Pappas]

I'll be pretty happy with any of Crow, Matzek, or Wheeler. Of course, I have my preferences between them, but the upside is there for all three guys, and no matter what we'll be getting a high end pitching prospect.

I agree...

After Matzek and Crow, I prefer Jacob Turner but just barely. Whomever we select should have us excited.

Matzek

Crow

Turner

White

Miller

Purke

Wheeler

Scheppers is the wildcard in this draft, but I believe we'll avoid him.

[Duke2010]

I agree...

After Matzek and Crow, I prefer Jacob Turner but just barely. Whomever we select should have us excited.

Matzek

Crow

Turner

White

Miller

Purke

Wheeler

Scheppers is the wildcard in this draft, but I believe we'll avoid him.

Pretty dang good list to choose from there. Tuesday should be fun:)

[allstar1579]

Back from the depths of graduation parties and QT with the kiddo...I missed a lot of good convo apparently, still catching up...

My preference would go:

Strasburg

Matzek

Wheeler

Ackley

S. Miller

Crow

I think. Then again I haven't thought about it in 2 days, so I retain the right to change my mind 34 times between now and Tuesday

[ShoelesJoe]

I'm guessing the first four picks of this draft play out with the following four players taken before we pick:

1 Steven Strasburg RHP You may have heard of him by now, 50.4% K 5.2%BB, great stuff, his tears may cure cancer 20.8 SDSU 1 ↔

2 Dustin Ackley CF Draft's best hitter, .405/.511/.744 with 44 BB and 27 K, ++ runner should cover ground in CF 21.2 UNC 2 ↔

3 Tyler Matzek LHP Clean mechanics, good control, deep pitch repitroire, projection and polish…so everything 18.5 HS 3 ↔

4 Donavan Tate CF Tremendous athlete with fantastic five tool potential, UNC commit could be pricey 18.6 HS 4 ↔

Assuming that happens, now we're talking about the REAL Orioles selection.

Who do you think we take if it plays out this way?

If that's how the 1st four picks go I have to think we'll grab Crow with #5.

[allstar1579]

If that's how the 1st four picks go I have to think we'll grab Crow with #5.

I think Wheeler and S. Miller (I'm higher on him than most) have more upside than Crow. That wrist action of his screams future elbow injury, and when you have guys that can just about match Crow pitch for pitch out of HS you have to go hmmmmm.

[ShoelesJoe]

I think Wheeler and S. Miller (I'm higher on him than most) have more upside than Crow. That wrist action of his screams future elbow injury, and when you have guys that can just about match Crow pitch for pitch out of HS you have to go hmmmmm.

I hear what you're saying, and you know more than I do about these guys. I'm just leery of an arm that's still 4-5 years away from contributing at the big league level, and the workload / possible injuries between now and then. At least the college guys are partway through that gauntlet, and should be up within a couple years.

Of course not all young arms are created equal. I'd take the future of Wheeler, Miller, and Matzek over that of NC's Alex White any day of the week. But then again, I still can't figure out how White's seen as a top ten draft pick anyway.

Another point in favor of Crow IMO is that he was seen last year -- in what was considered a deeper draft -- as one of the two best pitchers available (just behind Matusz). Now, it appears that nothing's changed wrt his abilities as he's putting up good numbers in the independent leagues. So we could wind up with the two best pitchers from a deep '08 draft, both of whom should be able to contribute to the big league club within 2/3 years.

[allstar1579]

I hear what you're saying, and you know more than I do about these guys. I'm just leery of an arm that's still 4-5 years away from contributing at the big league level, and the workload / possible injuries between now and then. At least the college guys are partway through that gauntlet, and should be up within a couple years.

Of course not all young arms are created equal. I'd take the future of Wheeler, Miller, and Matzek over that of NC's Alex White any day of the week. But then again, I still can't figure out how White's seen as a top ten draft pick anyway.

Another point in favor of Crow IMO is that he was seen last year -- in what was considered a deeper draft -- as one of the two best pitchers available (just behind Matusz). Now, it appears that nothing's changed wrt his abilities as he's putting up good numbers in the independent leagues. So we could wind up with the two best pitchers from a deep '08 draft, both of whom should be able to contribute to the big league club within 2/3 years.

Yeah, don't get me wrong, there is nothing wrong with your argument at all, it's typical debate going into the draft.

Last year's draft was really hitter deep, but I wasn't impressed with the pitching, and then this year is just the coin flip to that. I think Crow is ok and all, I think he'll get there to the show, but I'm not sure he doesn't get turned into a reliever at some point. I see almost a Dave Hernandez situation with him. I'd rather take a shot at Matzek, Wheeler or Miller, give them time to grow while we are seeing what we have with the current batch, and then hope we've got the next Kershaw or Hanson on our hands. Even if we didn't keep them, those kinds of pitching prospects can get you whatever you want in baseball right now.

[bigelow]

Yeah this is a great debate and im starting to zero in on high school pitchers. You can have control of the amount of innings they throw, you can change there mechanics if needed and last they are getting professional coaching from day 1.

[allstar1579]

Yeah this is a great debate and im starting to zero in on high school pitchers. You can have control of the amount of innings they throw, you can change there mechanics if needed and last they are getting professional coaching from day 1.

That is another point I'm a big fan of, I know guys like Stotle will tell you the talent you need to look for is either there or it's not and you shouldn't need to change a guy too much, (and he is right) but I'm a big proponent of professional coaching versus college coaching with the top HS pitchers.

Whether it is bad habits learned for the sake of winning over developing, or issues with not taking proper care of their arms (I don't think it's a strict overuse thing, it's just a matter of taking the proper care while you do it).

[Stotle]

That is another point I'm a big fan of, I know guys like Stotle will tell you the talent you need to look for is either there or it's not and you shouldn't need to change a guy too much, (and he is right) but I'm a big proponent of professional coaching versus college coaching with the top HS pitchers.

Whether it is bad habits learned for the sake of winning over developing, or issues with not taking proper care of their arms (I don't think it's a strict overuse thing, it's just a matter of taking the proper care while you do it).

I wouldn't phrase it the way you have, but yeah talent is talent. Pro coaching is preferable to HS coaching, of course. For me there are two types of elite college pitchers -- 1) those that were solid but needed to work on stuff (think of a live arm with little feel or a projectable body that wasn't truly draft ready in HS) ready, and 2) elite HSers that are committed to going to school.

It's seldom that you have an elite HSer that is signable, but ends up going to school. So, I can't really say there is generally an instance where a player is better off going pro than college for coaching purposes. I want a player to have certain minimal skills or else I'm wasting pro developmental resources on someone who really isn't ready.

So, yeah, I'd obviously rather have Wheeler in my system than wait for him two years from now. I'd rather have Chris Jenkins in my system now, but I'm not likely to pry him from Stanford. So you take what you can get and try to take advantage of the talent when it's available without reaching and spending your pro resources trying to mine talent (grabbing someone that isn't a potential prospect and trying to develop him into one).

[bigelow]

I think guys like Stotle are right for example Loewen, Cabrera, and Riley all had the talent to make it but from the late 90's to mid 2000's our minor league players were not progressing can be contributed to our front office. I have confidence in Andy taking a high school pitcher and moving him along the right way.

Right now i am Matzek 1. If he really is throwing 90-94 comfortably from the left side and can pump it up to mid 90's when needed sound like a kershaw/ Bedard. I think he can actually go faster through the minors because of his clean mechanics i would not be so worried about his number of innings.

Then i am confused. I like Turner next, then Wheeler, and Crow and would be happy with any of them.

Im a pretty big fan of Turner and think the team who takes him should take him slow and make him pitch backwards for his first couple of years.

[Greg Pappas]

I think guys like Stotle are right for example Loewen, Cabrera, and Riley all had the talent to make it but from the late 90's to mid 2000's our minor league players were not progressing can be contributed to our front office. I have confidence in Andy taking a high school pitcher and moving him along the right way.

Right now i am Matzek 1. If he really is throwing 90-94 comfortably from the left side and can pump it up to mid 90's when needed sound like a kershaw/ Bedard. I think he can actually go faster through the minors because of his clean mechanics i would not be so worried about his number of innings.

Then i am confused. I like Turner next, then Wheeler, and Crow and would be happy with any of them.

Im a pretty big fan of Turner and think the team who takes him should take him slow and make him pitch backwards for his first couple of years.

The mod in me must point out (in bold) the things you need to work on when posting.

The poster in me agrees that Turner should be highly regarded, and interestingly (at last check) BA has him ranked as the top HS arm in the draft, over Matzek. They may be right... but I'd lean Matzek by a nose.

[ShoelesJoe]

Its interesting that all the choices for this poll are pitchers. Do the offensive struggles the Orioles are going through change anybody's opinions as to whether we reach for a bat we might not have taken a couple of weeks ago? I know the rule is don't draft for need, but it's already a given that our minor league system has more impact pitchers on the way up than impact position players.

If we do draft another pitcher should it just be the first step in trading one or more of our young studs for an infielder?

[Greg Pappas]

Its interesting that all the choices for this poll are pitchers. Do the offensive struggles the Orioles are going through change anybody's opinions as to whether we reach for a bat we might not have taken a couple of weeks ago? I know the rule is don't draft for need, but it's already a given that our minor league system has more impact pitchers on the way up than impact position players.

If we do draft another pitcher should it just be the first step in trading one or more of our young studs for an infielder?

Draft the best player on your board: that's Jordan's rule. We have young ML studs at CF, RF, C, and possibly LF... as well as a good veteran 2B'man. We have no young stud pitchers at the ML level... yet. Hopefully they'll arrive as advertised, but to say we have enough is not necessarily accurate.

[bigelow]

You can never have too much pitching. Im willing to go out on a limb and say that with Wieters, Jones, Markakis, and Roberts that our offense will be ok. If we do get lucky and have to much pitching we could easily trade it away. Beckett for Hanley or Andrew Miller for Cabrera type of deal