Sun: O's have array of options at No. 5

[tywright]

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-orioles608,0,1474074.story

"There are a lot of good arms in the draft. It's high school. It's college," Jordan said. "There are a lot of different options, right-handed, left-handed. I would say it is pretty complete; it depends on which way a person wants to go."

"I think there are some good position-player options once we get into the draft a little," Jordan said. "It's not totally void of position-player prospects, but not when you're talking the top half of the first round."

From all the comments I've read and heard from Jordan, I still can't get a read on the guy. I have a suspicion he might actually take Green.

The Orioles would gladly take either Strasburg, considered the most polished college hurler since Mark Prior, or Ackley if either falls, but that's not anticipated. That leaves the Orioles with a host of pitching choices, led by Georgia high school right-hander Zack Wheeler, Vanderbilt lefty Mike Minor and Arizona State right-hander Mike Leake.

A darkhorse candidate is California prep righty Matt Hobgood, a 6-foot-4, 250-pound power pitcher.

Now this scares me a little. Why would Dan Connolly even mention these guys (except Wheeler)?

"In most situations, it's a four- or five-year process to get (prep pitchers) through the big leagues, so that in itself is a risk because that is a lot of time and a lot of pitches to be thrown. But you also can protect them better," Jordan said. "Some college arms have thrown 160 pitches in a game or 130 to 150 [pitches in a game ten times]. That concerns me. That's risky if you are talking about investing a lot of money in those guys."

This makes a lot of sense and this is most forthcoming Jordan has been regarding pitching.

[BillySmith]

If the draft is deep in pitching, and short on position players, why not grab a top 2 position prospect and grab pitching with the later picks? I guess the answer is you don't want to mess up the number 1 pick, plus pitching is always at a premium. Just a thought.

[McNulty]

If we take Minor or Leake at 5, I'm quitting this team.

[jets4ever]

If we take Minor or Leake at 5, I'm quitting this team.

I thinking that's not going to happen.

[Duke2010]

If the draft is deep in pitching, and short on position players, why not grab a top 2 position prospect and grab pitching with the later picks? I guess the answer is you don't want to mess up the number 1 pick, plus pitching is always at a premium. Just a thought.

Jordan said that the draft isn't totally void of positional prospects, but it's not ideal to take a position guy in the first half of the first round (save for Ackley and Green). Take the top pitching talent that we can get early on, and look for the positional players that will be a greater value in the following rounds. There's positional guys with talent available, but in the first round where we sit it may not be ideal, so we've got to be patient. BPA all the way and I expect that the best player will be a pitcher.

[QBsILLEST1]

If the draft is deep in pitching, and short on position players, why not grab a top 2 position prospect and grab pitching with the later picks? I guess the answer is you don't want to mess up the number 1 pick, plus pitching is always at a premium. Just a thought.

Because after Ackley, there is a HUGE drop off in positional player talent. If we did shoot for a position player, I would prefer Tate to be honest. Its not necessarily that the draft is pitcher heavy, its better explained as the top half of the 1st round is top heavy in pitching, or just completely void of positional talent. The rest of the draft is like any other draft with a bit more depth in quality after the 1st.....For instance, you may find a guy in the 2nd or even 3rd round in this draft who is actually good enough to be a 1st rounder, just fell due to depth and luckiness or unluckiness depending on who you are.

The HSer's available are the real deal and then you also have top 10 pick from last year's VERY strong draft in Crow who was at one point considered as the #1 pitcher in draft 08. Then there is also Scheppers who was also considered a top 10 guy in 08 who fell due to injury. IMO this draft has excellent quality in it, you may just have to take a risk and apparently the O's are finding it more of a risk to take on Schepper's injury than to draft a HS arm and see if they can make the journey to the Bigs....

Remember, every year people say "this year's draft is weak". I remember thinking that last year's draft was weak at the time, but looking back on it, it was very strong, especially when a guy like Smoak falls out of the top 5 even. In this year's draft, I take Smoak at pick 2.......

[JCK]

I don't like how Connely mentions Leake, Minor, Hobgood, and even Wheeler as immediately below Strasburg and Ackley. What about Crow, Matzek, Miller, Turner, Tate, etc?

I'm getting a bad feeling about this draft. Obviously you want to trust your scouts, but in my experience, when you surprise everyone with your pick (as we would by passing on Crow or Matzek to take Wheeler, Minor, Leake, or Hobgood) it rarely works out. If 29 other teams and all publications have a consensus, chances aren't good that we somehow see something they don't.

[hoosiers]

If 29 other teams and all publications have a consensus, chances aren't good that we somehow see something they don't.

Where is this consensus you speak of? I've seen Baseball America list us with three different players the past few days and the Sun mention a few more.

Everything I have read says it is SS and Ackley and then a bunch of very good prospects bunched up. I think Leake and Minor might be reaches, but there is nothing wrong with the bunch of HS pitchers like Turner, Wheeler and Miller.

[JCK]

Where is this consensus you speak of? I've seen Baseball America list us with three different players the past few days and the Sun mention a few more.

Everything I have read says it is SS and Ackley and then a bunch of very good prospects bunched up. I think Leake and Minor might be reaches, but there is nothing wrong with the bunch of HS pitchers like Turner, Wheeler and Miller.

Consensus being that guys like Leake, Hobgood and Minor are more 10-20 guys, not 1-5. My point is that if it's seen as a "reach" by most, more often than not, it doesn't work out.

[hoosiers]

Consensus being that guys like Leake, Hobgood and Minor are more 10-20 guys, not 1-5. My point is that if it's seen as a "reach" by most, more often than not, it doesn't work out.

You are placing too much reliance on consensus. Prince Fielder was not a consensus top 10 pick. Jason Heyward was drafted outside the top 5 of his draft. Nolan Reimold was not in the Baseball America Top 200. Cole Hamels was not drafted among the top 15 in his draft!

Four months ago, we might have snuggled up next to Gibson, Green and White and been thrilled. Now, those guys are slipping a bit, apparently.

Consensus is a general guide and one should understand the misinformation surrounding the draft. If you trust your scouting department, then just watch and observe.

At the end of the day, we will get a very good prospect in the first round - I have no doubt. Andy MacPhail is all about getting a big boatload of talent in the draft as the Sun article mentions. I am more concerned with drafting top talent that slips and going over-slot in the manner we did last year and even beyond that.

[JCK]

You are placing too much reliance on consensus. Prince Fielder was not a consensus top 10 pick. Jason Heyward was drafted outside the top 5 of his draft. Nolan Reimold was not in the Baseball America Top 200. Cole Hamels was not drafted among the top 15 in his draft!

Four months ago, we might have snuggled up next to Gibson, Green and White and been thrilled. Now, those guys are slipping a bit, apparently.

Consensus is a general guide and one should understand the misinformation surrounding the draft. If you trust your scouting department, then just watch and observe.

At the end of the day, we will get a very good prospect in the first round - I have no doubt. Andy MacPhail is all about getting a big boatload of talent in the draft as the Sun article mentions. I am more concerned with drafting top talent that slips and going over-slot in the manner we did last year and even beyond that.

Guys like Minor, Leake, and Hobgood might prove to have better careers than Stephen Strasburg (let alone Matzek and Crow) when it's all said and done. Of course I am not discounting the POSSIBILITY. I just don't like hoping that the Orioles are right and everyone else is wrong.

When we drafted Wieters, and the Pirates drafted Moskos, for all anyone knew, Moskos would turn into an ace, and Wieters would fizzle in A-ball. But our pick aligned with the consensus, and so despite that uncertainty, people around these parts were thrilled with the pick.

I agree with the "just watch and observe" philosophy in the long run but if these drafts are going to be evaluated at all in the short term, then you have to rely on what they've done so far, what people have said about them so far, and where people rank them so far.

[bej6789]

Maybe the Orioles are banking on a position player (Green?) at #5 and then taking the best player to fall because of $ demands (Purke).... it'd be an interesting risk -- not to mention a real ***** dealing with Boras 2x.

[section18]

Maybe they deliberately leaked word they had White and Wheeler in to OP to confuse other teams. In spite of the change of opinion by many scouts on Green I still find him worth the 5th pick in the draft if he is there. If Ackley slips along with Green I go with Ackley. I think pitchers will rule the 1st round. We need hitters. Go for hitters in this draft. We have plenty of pitchers

[ccbird]

I'm gonna keep it simple. The O's had White and Wheeler to the stadium to work out. It's going to be one of those two guys. One is sure to be there. If both are, then it comes down to who Jordan likes best. Not coincidentally, I don't think either are considered tough signings. Book it Dano!

I agree and I'm fine with either though I'd prefer either Crow or Matzek if they are available. At least with Wheeler or White they are nearly consensus top 10 prospects and Jordan can still reasonably say he was taking the highest rated on our board. If he goes with someone like Minor, Leake or Hobgood it's pretty foolish to keep claiming your taking the BPA and that signability isn't coming into play.

[ChaosLex]

I'm gonna keep it simple. The O's had White and Wheeler to the stadium to work out. It's going to be one of those two guys. One is sure to be there. If both are, then it comes down to who Jordan likes best. Not coincidentally, I don't think either are considered tough signings. Book it Dano!

Agreed on all counts. The only thing that could possibly screw things up is if Ackley drops to us in the draft, IMO.