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From Keith Law a few minutes ago about the draft today . . .

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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I don't know much about the draft prospects. In terms of pitchers, if there are no Loewen/Matusz types available at #5, I'd rather see them go with a college SS prospect who could play soon. So I would concur. Even if it's 5 slots or so too soon for Green.

I don't like the idea of a HS first rounder. I'd rather see Bundy/Beal picks later in the draft than a big up front commitment at #5.

I don't like the idea of a HS pitcher in the top 5-8 picks.

If we were drafting 11th and targeted Shelby Miller, that would be fine with me.

But to me, these top 5 picks that you are lucky(or unlucky, depending on how you look at it) to get are important for you to "hit" on, especially in our division and in this market.

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allstar1579 Hangout Grand Counsel

allstar1579

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I keep saying if because I haven't seen him...I have seen BA compare his SS abilities to Tulowitski and I have seen some say he can't stick there...Jordan and his scouts have to be able to figure this out...If they feel he sticks at SS, then to me, he has to be the pick.

Well, big question on White is this...Can he regain his slider with the ML baseball?

Guys like Craig Hansen and Ryan Wagner were never able to get the slider they showed in college because of the ball differences...If there is question about White being able to do that, then he really shouldn't be the pick.

BTW, the idea that they use different balls is one of the dumbest things in sports(same with the NFL using different balls than college).

BA also said a while back he was below average defensively, they backtracked more recently. He has a lot of throwing errors which usually means it's either a mechanics thing, that he may never really fix (he'll get moved) or it's a mental thing he's got to work through (he could get moved). It's impossible to say one way or the other if he'll stay or if he'll go now (great now that song is stuck in my head).

With White, I have no idea. I just know I wouldn't be betting my #5 pick on it with guys like Wheeler, or Matzek, or S. Miller out there. Severe inconsistency with pitchers is a HUGE red flag for me, while others think that a little instruction can fix the flaws and it's no big deal, I get scared the the male psyche is a little more difficult than that and you just never know. If there was a big talent gap, I'd do it, but there are other guys just as good and younger.

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allstar1579 Hangout Grand Counsel

allstar1579

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I don't like the idea of a HS pitcher in the top 5-8 picks.

If we were drafting 11th and targeted Shelby Miller, that would be fine with me.

But to me, these top 5 picks that you are lucky(or unlucky, depending on how you look at it) to get are important for you to "hit" on, especially in our division and in this market.

What if that HS pitcher was Beckett or Kershaw? The point being that you never know if that is what they will turn into, or just another kid that doesn't make it, but these guys are very talented this year, it might be an exception kinda year.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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BA also said a while back he was below average defensively, they backtracked more recently. He has a lot of throwing errors which usually means it's either a mechanics thing, that he may never really fix (he'll get moved) or it's a mental thing he's got to work through (he could get moved). It's impossible to say one way or the other if he'll stay or if he'll go now (great now that song is stuck in my head).

With White, I have no idea. I just know I wouldn't be betting my #5 pick on it with guys like Wheeler, or Matzek, or S. Miller out there. Severe inconsistency with pitchers is a HUGE red flag for me, while others think that a little instruction can fix the flaws and it's no big deal, I get scared the the male psyche is a little more difficult than that and you just never know. If there was a big talent gap, I'd do it, but there are other guys just as good and younger.

Cue JTrea reactionary thread about why we should draft female pitchers.

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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I keep saying if because I haven't seen him...I have seen BA compare his SS abilities to Tulowitski and I have seen some say he can't stick there...Jordan and his scouts have to be able to figure this out...If they feel he sticks at SS, then to me, he has to be the pick.
Nobody can figure this out. Again, its all about assessing the odds of him staying there.

To reiterate something I asked yesterday about when you switch from Green to someone else:

So what if you think that it is likely he can stay at SS, say you think he's got a 90% chance of lasting as a SS. Is he still your guy or do you go with someone else? What if he's only got a 75% chance? 50%? Wheres the line that you switch from Green to Wheeler or White (assuming one of those two are the pick, which I think is fair)? There's gotta be a line somewhere where the risk/reward combination of Green falls behind the risk/reward combination of the next guy. Where do you draw it?

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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What if that HS pitcher was Beckett or Kershaw? The point being that you never know if that is what they will turn into, or just another kid that doesn't make it, but these guys are very talented this year, it might be an exception kinda year.

Yea, I didn't really finish my thought...I meant to say unless they are an unbelievable talent, I wouldn't draft one that high.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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BA also said a while back he was below average defensively, they backtracked more recently. He has a lot of throwing errors which usually means it's either a mechanics thing, that he may never really fix (he'll get moved) or it's a mental thing he's got to work through (he could get moved). It's impossible to say one way or the other if he'll stay or if he'll go now (great now that song is stuck in my head).

With White, I have no idea. I just know I wouldn't be betting my #5 pick on it with guys like Wheeler, or Matzek, or S. Miller out there. Severe inconsistency with pitchers is a HUGE red flag for me, while others think that a little instruction can fix the flaws and it's no big deal, I get scared the the male psyche is a little more difficult than that and you just never know. If there was a big talent gap, I'd do it, but there are other guys just as good and younger.

I will be honest, I much more concerned with range and arm strength.

If he has the arm strength and the range to stay at SS, that's fine with me.

Most of the time, bad throws are a result of poor foot work and maybe being lazy with your arm slot.

But as long as the "tools" are there, ie the arm strength and range, that's good enough for me.

So, for me, it goes back to work ethic and coachability...If he is strong in those areas, then I would have little doubt about his ability to stay at SS if the arm strength and range are there.

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QBsILLEST1 All-Star

QBsILLEST1

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Personally, I'm begininning to think that Matzek is close to that category. I think he projects to as good or better than Bedard.

Well, with the safest HS pitchers being both Wheeler and Matzek, I am actually on board with either. They both have advanced command, especially for their age and I am in love with their upside. You think about obstacles for either that would throw them off of their projection, and IMO Matzek has less risk mostly due to his smoother delivery and his arsenal. With Wheeler, you have more of a project with getting his change up to continue to develop and tweaking his delivery and getting him to repeat it, but command is always a major obstacle if any pitcher lacks the aspect, and both of these pitchers have strengths in command which I like. Of course you are taking a risk with these guys, but it really isnt much more than the risk of Crow needing to repair his TJ ligament or cuff or labrum due to his arm action. In the end, I like Wheeler's ceiling more and if JJ thinks that the tweaks needed to his delivery are easy to fix, I pick him, hes already a mid 90 MPH guy and is still expected to possibly gain more velocity as he fills out, with plus command and possibly 3 plus pitches, he could be a something pretty special.......

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Hank Scorpio Hangout Grand Counsel

Hank Scorpio

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Again, Law chimes in :

Here's the skinny: Atlanta is down to either UNC RHP Alex White or Vandy lefty Mike Minor at No. 7. Whoever the Braves don't take, the Reds will likely snatch up one pick later. Washington was previously on Minor for the No. 10 pick, but if he's off the board, expect them to select Stanford reliever Drew Storen instead.
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