Please practice your catching, House

[RShack]

If the Norfolk staff knows more about House than we do, isn't their playing of him full time at catcher enough of an endorsement? I mean if you're making the point that we shouldn't be so arrogant to assume *we* know more than the baseball people, and that decisions shouldn't be made to satisfy *us* at the expense of what's best for the team, then you're really agreeing with *us*.

AAA staff thinks he's good enough to start at catcher, we think he's good enough to deserve a shot to start at catcher...what are we arguing about again?

Beats me. That's what I was asking about. If we think DT knows baseball (which I think we do), and if we think DT is happy to have House up (which I think we do), then if it makes sense to play him at C, then DT will prolly do that. Don't you think? Are people mad because DT has not gone on TV and said either, "Yes, I fully intend to play him at C." or "No, I have decided that it makes no sense to try him at C, therefore I won't".

[RShack]

I don't trust that the Orioles are making the proper decision with him.

I don't trust their ability to overlook some defensive issues and focus on what he does bring to the team.

They haven't shown they are willing to use players like this.

So, you think DT (who seems happy to finally have House up) will make poor judgments about where to play him... and he will do that because there is a history of O's people making poor decisions... is this right?

Or maybe you think DT wants to play him at C, but is being prevented from doing so by... whom? The other new guy, MacPhail?

I'm a bit hazy on exactly who in the O's decision-making hierarchy these days are the bozos.

[NoVaO]

I don't really care about how many times teams have run on Bako. Its pretty insignificant.

The thing is, in Tommy's post, the 75% CS% that is bolded really stands out. But then it says that only 4 guys tried to steal on him. That 75% is insignificant. Teams tried to steal 4 times on him in 13 games. It was probably a flukish thing that teams didn't run on him in 05. Why focus on those 13 games when we have his whole career to dissect that basically tells all we need to know?

Just using 2006, the most a catcher (qualified) was run on was 122 times in 133 games (127 started). I'll give Piazza (100 in 99 starts) and Barret (110 in 96 starts) special mention because they were close to qualifying. A quick glance at Bako's career stats tell me that guys on average attempt to steal on him about one time per start. Teams aren't stealing as much on him this year, but I find it hard to believe its because of they fear Bako throwing them out.

Now, it was also mentioned earlier that Bako, if he would qualify for catcher he would rank 4th in the AL with his 2006 CS%. Keep in mind the number of qualified catchers in the AL this year: 7...

And just like players do offensively, players decline defensively. He has steadily declined in his CS%. Once in the .340 - .345 range, he dipped to the .295 - .320 range. This year he is at .179. Pretty awful.

Yes, minor league teams steal more bases than teams in the majors. If we are going to call out the base stealers in the minor leagues, we should ask ourselfs if the pitchers hold the runners worse, or do the infielders get the tag down as quick as major leaguers do...

I believe Bako is here because Mazzone trusts him. They like his ability to handle a pitching staff and keep things under control. Fine. I don't even mind having a guy who is more of a defensive specialist as a back-up catcher. But you have to do better than Bako. His .566 OPS is worse than it actually is because of his dreadful performance in key situations...0 for 5 with the bases loaded, 3 for 17 with a .457 OPS in close and late situations, 4 for 39 with a .484 OPS.

But hey, he manages a pitching staff well (kinda...4.73 ERA when he catches). He has probably cost our team a good three wins or so in his limited time. Cheers to that.

[Lucky Jim]

I found this article at The Hardball Times...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-guns/

Using play-by-play data from the 2006 minor leagues, I focused on the first one of those elements. While a full season's worth of data is not the final word on a catcher's skill at gunning down would-be basestealers (or keeping them from running in the first place), it's a large step in the right direction.

As is so often the case, this is a somewhat one-dimensional study. The effectiveness of a running game is a function of many variables: the catcher's arm strength, the catcher's reputation, the pitcher's pickoff moves, his repertoire, his time to home plate, and the aggregate skill level of basestealers in the league. This analysis makes no attempt to filter out the effect of the last four of those variables. That's a project for another column.

Stolen Base Percentage

The most common statistic used to measure a catcher's effectiveness at controlling the running game is stolen base percentage (SB%). It's simply the number of steals against the catcher divided by the number of attempts. It's the same thing as a batter's stolen base percentage, so we can use many of the same rules of thumb. The "break-even" point is somewhere around 70%, meaning that a catcher who stops more than 30% of attempts is benefiting his team while one who stops fewer than that is hurting it.

In the majors last year, the overall stolen base rate was between 71% and 72%, but the rates were several percentage points lower in the minors, between 64% and 68%, depending on the league. (For reference, at the end of this article I've presented a table with the averages at each level for the three stats I've used....)

And the Worst...

On the flip side, not every poor-hitting catcher is a defensive stud. To wit, here are the 10 worst catchers in the minors last year, according to their SB%:

First   Last      Lev     Org     IP      SB      CS      SB%Chris   Gimenez   A       Cle     511.7   42      11      79.2%Juan    Apodaca   A/A+    Lad     708.0   110     32      77.5%J. R.   House     AA/AAA  Hou     565.0   92      27      77.3%Emerson Frostad   A+      Tex     608.0   80      25      76.2%Curtis  Thigpen   AA/AAA  Tor     746.7   70      22      76.1%John    Otness    A+      Bos     735.7   108     34      76.1%Salomon Manriquez AA      Was     778.3   98      31      76.0%Mike    Mahoney   AAA     Tor     526.7   44      14      75.9%Brad    Davis     A+      Flo     863.0   101     33      75.4%Kyle    Dahlberg  A       Bal     518.0   64      21      75.3%

The most familiar names on the list are J. R. House and Curtis Thigpen; the others may be your future bullpen coaches. If we assume that it is more difficult to prevent stolen bases at higher levels, these players will require some serious offensive production to fill any role behind the plate in the major leagues.

They have House as the worst actual catching prospect in the minors at controlling the running game - he was at 16.3% SBI. Here's some perspective:

Level Averages

As you might expect, basestealers increase in skill and/or decrease in recklessness as they get closer to the major leagues. To judge the numbers presented above, especially those of the prospects in the previous table, it's useful to compare them to the average performance for their level.

LEV     SB      CS      SB%     ATT/I   SB/IAAA     3052    1470    67.5%   12.1%   8.1%AA      2862    1571    64.6%   12.1%   7.8%A+      3631    1822    66.6%   15.0%   10.0%A       3816    1993    65.7%   16.0%   10.5%SS      1337    713     65.2%   14.2%   9.2%RK      2565    1214    67.9%   17.8%   12.1%

[rolliefingers]

I found this article at The Hardball Times...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-guns/

They have House as the worst actual catching prospect in the minors at controlling the running game - he was at 16.3% SBI. Here's some perspective:

http://orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1022464&postcount=38

[os1971]

I found this article at The Hardball Times...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-guns/

They have House as the worst actual catching prospect in the minors at controlling the running game - he was at 16.3% SBI. Here's some perspective:

I already quoted that article. But yeah it does provde some perspective.

[Lucky Jim]

http://orioleshangout.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1022464&postcount=38

lol. Ah, well. C- for effort.

I must have missed a page in scanning through the posts...

I already quoted that article. But yeah it does provde some perspective.

Maybe you did - but did you use the cool HTML coding for the statistical portions and/or strategic use of ellipses? Because, frankly, if not, they're barely the same post at all.

[Sports Guy]

Comparing Pudges career numbers with House's 2006 Minor Leagues statistics.....

1. Pudge has allowed a stolen base every 26.9 innings

2. In 2006 House allowed a SB every 6.1 innings.

I think I trust the Orioles on this one.

What does this comparison have to do with anything?

[os1971]

lol. Ah, well. C- for effort.

I must have missed a page in scanning through the posts...

Thing also to remember about House is that the guy had major shoulder surgery (2004?) I believe. Before that his arm was pretty decent, after it was pretty bad.

If you do some more research you'll see that most scouts (like the Orioles) project him as a third string catcher at best.

With respect to him starting at Norfolk, well thats pretty easy. Norfolks job isn't to win games it's to provide ML ready ballplayers to the parent club. They catch House because that gives him AB's (and House's strength is as an offensive player) and what sense does it really do to catch Castillo as he's nothing more than a journeyman.

[Sports Guy]

So, you think DT (who seems happy to finally have House up) will make poor judgments about where to play him... and he will do that because there is a history of O's people making poor decisions... is this right?

Or maybe you think DT wants to play him at C, but is being prevented from doing so by... whom? The other new guy, MacPhail?

I'm a bit hazy on exactly who in the O's decision-making hierarchy these days are the bozos.

First of all, where are you guys getting how happy DT is with House being here?

As for the rest of your post...I have no answer for you as i don;t know all the details...I do know DT overvalues defense though.

[os1971]

What does this comparison have to do with anything?

It means teams run like crazy on House. You stated that 1200 runners have ran off of Pudge. I'm providing you some perspective.

[Sports Guy]

I found this article at The Hardball Times...

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-guns/

They have House as the worst actual catching prospect in the minors at controlling the running game - he was at 16.3% SBI. Here's some perspective:

Did you notice the name Curtis Thigpen on that list?

The same Thigpen who started at catcher against us the other day...The same Thigpen who caught a good game from AJ Burnett.

[Lucky Jim]

Did you notice the name Curtis Thigpen on that list?

The same Thigpen who started at catcher against us the other day...The same Thigpen who caught a good game from AJ Burnett.

I'm not taking a position, SG. I've never seen House catch, so it'd be foolish of me to try to assess his chances.

But - to be fair - the fact that Thigpen caught a single good game against us hardly much of an endorsement. I mean, talk about tiny sample-size.

They need to try and get House some ABs. I don't know how they'll do it, necessarily (especially with Huff seemingly hot again).

[RShack]

First of all, where are you guys getting how happy DT is with House being here?

Somebody posted something about how DT told House something like, "Happy you're here... I wanted you here before, but couldn't get it done until now"... or similar words... as to who posted it where, I have no idea...

As for the rest of your post...I have no answer for you as i don;t know all the details...I do know DT overvalues defense though.

I don't know the details either, but it appears that we have 2 people who are brand new around here as decision-makers (DT and AM), yet you seem to assume that there is some Warehouse Disease that makes everybody stupid, as evidenced by previous decision-makers being stupid. Sorta like the whole "10 years" yada yada somehow dooms DT and AM from having any sense.

If DT is actually a believer in the whole pitching-and-defense thing, then he'll want House at DH or a corner. But I don't know if that's really some credo he has vs. whether he was just looking at his dinger-less roster and was trying to make lemonade...

[Sports Guy]

I'm not taking a position, SG. I've never seen House catch, so it'd be foolish of me to try to assess his chances.

But - to be fair - the fact that Thigpen caught a single good game against us hardly much of an endorsement. I mean, talk about tiny sample-size.

They need to try and get House some ABs. I don't know how they'll do it, necessarily (especially with Huff seemingly hot again).

Thigpen has had 5 steals against him this year...3 have been caught.

And of course it is a small sample size but it shows they are willing to try it because of the offense he brings(i assume this is the reason).

Its like the A's...They had Swisher in CF this year...I noticed Cust is in RF tonight for them.