1st Round Pick - Matt Hobgood - RHP - HS

[Moose Milligan]

Also, for what it's worth, the guys on MLBN liked the pick, John Hart especially.

[Moose Milligan]

And also for what it's worth, Hobgood actually seems like he's a well spoken kid. Wheeler and Matzek didn't sound that bright at all.

I know that gets lost in the shuffle when you're talking about where someones fastball sits and what kind of secondary stuff they have....it's just refreshing to see that Hobgood can actually complete a sentence intelligently.

[allstar1579]

So because Callis says this is true it's true? Didn't Jordan come out and say he liked Hobgood the best out of the high school arms? Why do you think Jordan is lying to us? What has given you ANY indication that Jordan does not speak the truth? He's been very straight with his answers all along and only time will tell whether his selection will be a good one, but it's clear to me that Hobgood was not just a signability pick.

Yeah, I'd never go as far as to say they only took him because he's signable or anything, he's first round talent for sure.

My only two issues are the conditioning and the arsenal. Some of the other kids had 2 plus pitches and another average pitch already, and he's got one plus, one above average and one not worth mentioning.

If Jordan likes him, he likes him, he's been doing this much longer than any of us. He might know that a certain pitching coach is great with changeups and can teach him to take that not worth mentioning pitch to an average pitch, and then a little fine tuning makes that other one a plus, he's right there with the other kids.

People need to stop putting so much stock into a lot of these big draft names. It works like this, when you start out, you are doing the grunt work, doing the analysis, and posting what you get composite from whatever sources you can (like Greg, Stotle, Crawdad and I) then when you make it, and start getting the reputation, you get contacts, which you then start relying on. So most of these guys will report what they hear from guys like Jordan, or asst. GMs or whoever, so you hear who is taking who even if it doesn't fit to the BPA or talent level strictly. If one organization decides to draft for need and to stay under slot (like PIT) then they might take a reach on a guy that would have been there much later, or maybe they just didn't think he'd be around in the supplemental and they wanted them that bad.

[allstar1579]

And also for what it's worth, Hobgood actually seems like he's a well spoken kid. Wheeler and Matzek didn't sound that bright at all.

I know that gets lost in the shuffle when you're talking about where someones fastball sits and what kind of secondary stuff they have....it's just refreshing to see that Hobgood can actually complete a sentence intelligently.

Haha, I of all people can respect that, I put a lot of stock in the the mental make up of pitchers being a Psych guy, hence why I thought he was a first round guy, just not as physically talented as the other 6.

[Sports Guy]

Who are the "most" that disagree with him? 3-4 internet sites?

Internet sites, scouts, other teams, etc.....

Jordan is relatively alone on the island that says Hobgood was a better choice over guys like Green, Wheeler, Matzek, Purke, etc....

That doesn't mean he is wrong, just that most didn't rate him as highly.

[Moose Milligan]

Haha, I of all people can respect that, I put a lot of stock in the the mental make up of pitchers being a Psych guy, hence why I thought he was a first round guy, just not as physically talented as the other 6.

I agree.

I was happy to see multiple reports of the kid having a bulldog mentality and a bit of a mean streak.

[allstar1579]

Internet sites, scouts, other teams, etc.....

Jordan is relatively alone on the island that says Hobgood was a better choice over guys like Green, Wheeler, Matzek, Purke, etc....

That doesn't mean he is wrong, just that most didn't rate him as highly.

When it comes down to it, it's a preference for that team, and if they don't think he'll be around at 2:5 (he wouldn't) then sometimes you have to make that tough choice, take someone a bit early, or lose them entirely.

That being said, you know where I stand already. It's done though, and I support Jordan and Matt himself and hope the best for the kid.

I will say though, if you look at the trend in top picks lately, there is a common element that I think we all know how our team values prospects. They like good character and great mental makeup. Look at Wieters, Matusz and now Hobgood, all guys that are intelligent, can hold a conversation, and have a really good understanding of the game.

[Mizerooskie]

Internet sites, scouts, other teams, etc.....

Jordan is relatively alone on the island that says Hobgood was a better choice over guys like Green, Wheeler, Matzek, Purke, etc....

That doesn't mean he is wrong, just that most didn't rate him as highly.

Are you privy to how other teams rated Hobgood? I've certainly seen no sources that provide team rankings.

Occasionally, Keith Law, Jim Callis, etc. will quote some anonymous MLB scout with an opinion, but that's only one of many scouting opinions.

[TonySoprano]

His new nickname is Froot Loops (apologies to Mickey Tettleton)

For two hours at the restaurant, family and friends told stories about Hobgood, his childhood, large eating habits, humor and baseball prowess. He once ate a Costco-sized box of Fruit Loops at a single seating.

"The boy can eat," said Wood's mom.

[Norco coach]Parcell said Hobgood is "country strong," noting he isn't "buffed" or "ripped."

But he is extremely athletic for his build.

Source - maxpreps

[Moose Milligan]

His new nickname is Froot Loops (apologies to Mickey Tettleton) Source - maxpreps

Already worried about the nickname?

I thought we'd all agree on Hobgoblin.

[Sports Guy]

Are you privy to how other teams rated Hobgood? I've certainly seen no sources that provide team rankings.

Occasionally, Keith Law, Jim Callis, etc. will quote some anonymous MLB scout with an opinion, but that's only one of many scouting opinions.

If you read between the lines, I think it is pretty safe to say that most teams, if not all teams, would have passed on Hobgood with the 5th pick.

The only other team we heard that would have taken Hobgood highly was Colorado.

[Mackus]

Are you privy to how other teams rated Hobgood? I've certainly seen no sources that provide team rankings.

Occasionally, Keith Law, Jim Callis, etc. will quote some anonymous MLB scout with an opinion, but that's only one of many scouting opinions.

Its not unkind or a slam on anybody to say he was a reach. He clearly was. You compare where he went to where the overall general consensus was that he would go, and obviously we valued him much more highly than anyone else.

Someone being a "reach" isn't a bad thing in the baseball draft, especially if there isn't any major differences between ten or so guys. Its ok to pick a reach if its a guy you like. You just need to stand behind the pick and be willing to accept the justified criticism if it doesn't work out, as well as the justified praise if it does.

If it were the NFL where you can trade down, it'd be different. But you can't trade picks in MLB, so going with a guy you really like, even if he's not expected to go where you are picking him, is fine. Just stand behind your pick, which Jordan clearly is doing.

[LAOSfan]

Hey guys, wanted to add a bit that I learned last night. A good friend of mine, who is involved and on top of So. Cal HS baseball, and whose opinion I trust and respect (he played at SDSU) said that Hobgood is the real deal and that he thinks we got a special talent.

Also, I'm not sure if this has been posted somewhere else but the O's would have taken Ackley had he fallen so JTrea can put away his MacPhail pitchforks.

[Mizerooskie]

Its not unkind or a slam on anybody to say he was a reach. He clearly was. You compare where he went to where the overall general consensus was that he would go, and obviously we valued him much more highly than anyone else.

Someone being a "reach" isn't a bad thing in the baseball draft, especially if there isn't any major differences between ten or so guys. Its ok to pick a reach if its a guy you like. You just need to stand behind the pick and be willing to accept the justified criticism if it doesn't work out, as well as the justified praise if it does.

If it were the NFL where you can trade down, it'd be different. But you can't trade picks in MLB, so going with a guy you really like, even if he's not expected to go where you are picking him, is fine. Just stand behind your pick, which Jordan clearly is doing.

The "general consensus" is the sticking point here. The only consensus we're privy to is that of a handful of interent sites. It's likely, based on how different the draft results are from the projections of those sites every year, that the teams value the prospects very differently.

The internet sites and such are very similar to college football recruiting sites. They're useful tools to gain information on prospects, but they're generally way off with a vast majority of their projections.

I'd rather trust those that are paid to scout by the teams. Let's face it, if the staff members of the internet sites were really that good, they'd be employed by an MLB team.

[Can_of_corn]

Also, I'm not sure if this has been posted somewhere else but the O's would have taken Ackley had he fallen so JTrea can put away his MacPhail pitchforks.

I keep seeing folks quoting this and my base cynical nature comes into play. It was a 95%+ shot that Ackley would be gone before 5, it doesn't mean much for them to say they would have taken him. I bet they would have taken Strasburg too if he had dropped.

It does look, at this point in time, as if the O's will be spending less on this draft which I think is a mistake. To me spending big on the draft is the best way to keep costs down. You overspend on HS pitchers and at the very least you never have to sign a free agent bullpen arm again. For the cost of one free agent backup player, a Baez for example, you can fill a draft board with over slot kids.