1st Round Pick - Matt Hobgood - RHP - HS

[Hank Scorpio]

Its not unkind or a slam on anybody to say he was a reach. He clearly was. You compare where he went to where the overall general consensus was that he would go, and obviously we valued him much more highly than anyone else.

Someone being a "reach" isn't a bad thing in the baseball draft, especially if there isn't any major differences between ten or so guys. Its ok to pick a reach if its a guy you like. You just need to stand behind the pick and be willing to accept the justified criticism if it doesn't work out, as well as the justified praise if it does.

If it were the NFL where you can trade down, it'd be different. But you can't trade picks in MLB, so going with a guy you really like, even if he's not expected to go where you are picking him, is fine. Just stand behind your pick, which Jordan clearly is doing.

All that matters is that it wasn't a reach for JJ.

[thundercleetz]

Two points, probably mentioned already:

First, for those who saw this as a signability pick:

The Orioles contacted Hobgood's agent an hour before Tuesday's draft and said if University of North Carolina first baseman Dustin Ackley was already taken, then the Orioles would select Hobgood fifth.

We were ready to spead, no doubt about it from this quote. However, that does not mean we were going to be dumb. The talent difference between Hobgood and some of the other players was not worth the difference in some of the figurs being thrown out there. A guy like Ackley was worth $6 million, a guy like Maztek is not worth $7+ million when it is arguable if he is even better than Hobgood.

Second, for those questioning Hobgood's body-type:

This winter, Hobgood said he weighed between 260 and 265 pounds and was told he needed to get in better shape to improve his draft standing. He worked out, ran and built himself into a physical specimen.

"He carries it pretty darn good. His waistline is higher than mine. He's an athletic, cut big guy," Jordan said. "When you see him in uniform it's suprising. His back and shoulders are wide with a small waist. It's a good body.""

The kid understands to be successfull he needs to keep his weight under control. A guy like Sidney Ponson did not understand this. The O's did their homework with this, Hobgood has a strong work ethic. I am not worried about his weight at all.

[thundercleetz]

One question: Were Hobgood and Givens held back a year in school?

LJ Hoes, who was drafted last year, was born 3/5/1990. Givens was born 5/13/1990 and Hobgood was born 8/3/1990. I am not sure what the cut off dates in Florida and California are, but in Maryland the age cut-off is not until October. And many people born in those later months just go to school with their fellow birth year anyways. Both Given and Hobgood were born kind of mid-year, they are clearly before most cut-off dates. I wonder why they are a year behind?

[Can_of_corn]

Two points, probably mentioned already:

First, for those who saw this as a signability pick:

We were ready to spead, no doubt about it from this quote. However, that does not mean we were going to be dumb. The talent difference between Hobgood and some of the other players was not worth the difference in some of the figurs being thrown out there. A guy like Ackley was worth $6 million, a guy like Maztek is not worth $7+ million when it is arguable if he is even better than Hobgood.

Second, for those questioning Hobgood's body-type:

The kid understands to be successfull he needs to keep his weight under control. A guy like Sidney Ponson did not understand this. The O's did their homework with this, Hobgood has a strong work ethic. I am not worried about his weight at all.

I addressed this topic a few posts ago. Saying they would have spent a bunch of money to sign Ackley doesn't prove anything. It is akin to me saying, If Megan Fox walks into this bar, she is leaving with me! The proof of a willingness to spend money will be if they spend money, not saying they would have.

So the fact that Hobgood was 260-265 last winter you see as a good thing? If he had a stong work ethic he wouldn't have goten so big in the first place. It is a good sign that he dropped the 10-20 pounds but he had a lot of incentive to do so. Hopefully a couple million in his pocket won't affect his ability to remain focused on keeping himself in shape.

[PaulBako]

One question: Were Hobgood and Givens held back a year in school?

Givens was born 5/13/2009

:laughlol:

This guy must have some real potential for being only a month old. :laughlol:

[thundercleetz]

I addressed this topic a few posts ago. Saying they would have spent a bunch of money to sign Ackley doesn't prove anything. It is akin to me saying, If Megan Fox walks into this bar, she is leaving with me! The proof of a willingness to spend money will be if they spend money, not saying they would have.

Using your Megan Fox example: Lets say your buddy hits on her first. You have two choices beyond that, a hot blonde (Matzek, some of the other arms) with an attitude (negotiations) who you will have to spend your whole wallet on to get with, or a nice, pretty brunette (Hobgood) who you will only have to spend a little money on. It is really arguable which girl is prettier. Of course you would spend money on Megan Fox (Ackley), there is not need to even question the willingness as she is clearly better than any other of the options. However, once she is gone, there is no need to be reckless with what is left when the difference is not much at all.

So the fact that Hobgood was 260-265 last winter you see as a good thing? If he had a stong work ethic he wouldn't have goten so big in the first place. It is a good sign that he dropped the 10-20 pounds but he had a lot of incentive to do so. Hopefully a couple million in his pocket won't affect his ability to remain focused on keeping himself in shape.

While I do agree with the second part of your post, that people can sometimes take it easy once they receiver their payday, I disagree with the first part. So what you are saying is that people are born with a work ethic and cannot develop one? Have you seen Hobgood? He has a baby-face, the guy is 18-years old. How many eight-teen year olds watch what they eat to manage their weight? Stuff like that comes with age. Like you said, lets just hope Hobgood's ability to remain focused will not be hindered.

[Can_of_corn]

How many eight-teen year olds watch what they eat to manage their weight? Stuff like that comes with age. Like you said, lets just hope Hobgood's ability to remain focused will not be hindered.

I would hope that the vast majority of 18 year olds who wish to become professional baseball players try and manage their weight. In general terms I agree with you, but when talking about folks that aspire to professional athletic careers it should be a priority from day one.

[Beach Bum]

I've read some of the reviews of Hobgood and many of the points made on this thread. It all reminds me of the old expression "nobody gets fired for hiring IBM". This leads me to believe that the Orioles truely believe that Hobgood has great potential and they also didn't want to take the chance that they couldn't get him with a later pick. The safe pick would have been to choose one of the "name" college or high school pitchers.

Time will tell how this pick turns out but not many of us would put our job on the line for a relatively unknown HS pitcher.

[Tony-OH]

I would hope that the vast majority of 18 year olds who wish to become professional baseball players try and manage their weight. In general terms I agree with you, but when talking about folks that aspire to professional athletic careers it should be a priority from day one.

I was told Hobgood has less than 10 percent body fat. The "out of shape" comments seem to be as misguided as the assumption he only throws 88-92.

[crawdad]

I was told Hobgood has less than 10 percent body fat. The "out of shape" comments seem to be as misguided as the assumption he only throws 88-92.

The Hobgood out of shape perception is based on his body type before this past season. Last fall he was advised to take training more seriously and has whipped himself into his current physique. A question is whether this is a lifestyle change or a one time event. I imagine it is a lifestyle change and that is what the O's are banking on.

[allstar1579]

I was told Hobgood has less than 10 percent body fat. The "out of shape" comments seem to be as misguided as the assumption he only throws 88-92.

I'm just going by multiple scouting reports that said he was up around 255-265 and he was "country strong, not super muscular".

Kinda hard to tell here though:

[Icebird]

FWIW, adding to the "good character" comments that have already been made, here's a thread from the Cal State Fullerton baseball board - people in the know are saying much the same about Hobgood:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=45&f=2231&t=4401623

"Once upon a time, the O's scouts never ventured West of the Mississippi. Now they're locked in on CA on a regular basis . . . Matusz from USD last year and now a well-deserved meteoric rise for Hobgood."

"The O's were one of the recent pioneers of incorporating personality/character assessments in their scouting equation. Hobgood has obvious talent but really blew the O's away on intangibles."

"Matt is from our area out here and I can say he is a 100% 'A' person. Good for him and his mother."

[Mizerooskie]

I think the intangibles/character point is a very good one. Personally, if I were a scouting director and a player like Matzek is throwing around the types of demands that he was, I start questioning his makeup.

[JCK]

I'm just going by multiple scouting reports that said he was up around 255-265 and he was "country strong, not super muscular".

Kinda hard to tell here though:

The weight/conditioning does not concern me at all. I've seen a lot of big guys who will shock you with their conditioning. And as we know, pitchers often benefit from that bulk.

Also, knowing how scouts tend to drool over tall, wiry, Rick Porcello bodies, it makes me wonder if the reason that he wasn't seen as a top 5 pick by many, had a lot to do with his body type. If that's the case, then I'm glad the O's were able to look past that.

Here's a more recent pic.

[ccbird]

I was told Hobgood has less than 10 percent body fat. The "out of shape" comments seem to be as misguided as the assumption he only throws 88-92.

Looking at the most recent pick of him holding the trophy and the video posted last night during the draft I believe his body fat is under 10%.

Also, he probably wasn't as big a reach as many think. By all accounts he was a 1st round talent anyway. I saw a lot mocks in previous months with him going somewhere in the 20-30 range. However, Hart said yesterday when he was drafted that he was shooting up the boards in recent days due to his signability and late season progress and performances. If Hart knew what he was talking about I think it's safe to assume he probably had moved himself inside the top 15 or 20, possibly even top 10.