eek..the Rowell-o-meter is plummeting...

[BringBackMagic]

From Fangraphs:

"The average bust rate for first round picks is right around 60%."

For us to get successful players out of Wieters, Matusz and Snyder and to lose Rowell... we are definitely going against the grain here.

While I'm not completely writing off Rowell just because you look at him and it's baffling why someone with so much natural talent can't put it together.... I think Terror's point is very important. If Rowell never makes it above Bowie and is out of baseball in 3 years, we should accept that as part of the game.

Look at it this way. Out of the 2006 draft we got Zach Britton, Jason Berken, Chris Tillman (SEA 2nd Round) and Kam Mickilio (SEA 18th Round). If Britton and Tillman end up 2/5 of our starting rotation 3 years from now, Berken is a spot starter AAAA org depth guy and Mickilio manages to turn it around and be the middle reliever we hope he can be... that's a good 2006 draft for us Rowell or no Rowell.

[BringBackMagic]

I wonder how many hit their ceiling at High A.

Not saying that Rowell has done that, but it isn't looking good.

Where you hit your wall really doesn't matter. If he never made it past Delmarva it wouldn't make him any less valuable of a pick then if he made it to Bowie and batted under .200 for 3 years.

Fact is all 1st rounders don't work out. We have enough to bang our heads against the wall over with the big league squad. Let's be happy with what we have, one of the best minor league systems in the league. If Jordan was really that messed up over the fact Rowell was a bust and he let it get to him, he wouldn't have followed up with as great drafts as he has. It's why you take 40-50 players each year. 80% of them don't work out.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Where you hit your wall really doesn't matter. If he never made it past Delmarva it wouldn't make him any less valuable of a pick then if he made it to Bowie and batted under .200 for 3 years.

Fact is all 1st rounders don't work out. We have enough to bang our heads against the wall over with the big league squad. Let's be happy with what we have, one of the best minor league systems in the league. If Jordan was really that messed up over the fact Rowell was a bust and he let it get to him, he wouldn't have followed up with as great drafts as he has. It's why you take 40-50 players each year. 80% of them don't work out.

It was just asking, more or less. No reason for the overamped response. I have a lot of respect for Jordan, and his results overall speak for themselves. It's a good part of the reason I'm actually not banging my head against the wall over the big league club, though maybe you are; current struggles aside, I think this team is in great shape going forward, and in great part it's due to the drafts of the last few years.

But whether you like it or not, outstanding failures are legitimate subjects for discussion and analysis, and it is possible to discuss and analyze without going off one way or the other or reading it as a criticism.

The fact that failures happen doesn't mean that we should ignore them. Just the opposite. Ask an engineer whether catastrophic failures are worth studying.

And I think it can matter, where players hit the wall. It's easy to see that projecting a HS kid into the majors is tricky business. The lower levels of the minors require somewhat less projection, I think, and if a highly-rated kid busts in the lower levels, the question of why and how it happened is legitimate.

There may actually be some value in looking at what happened between Top 10 in 2006 and a .684 OPS in 09 -- and the discussion doesn't really require your approval.

[Cavspider]

It was just asking, more or less. No reason for the overamped response. I have a lot of respect for Jordan, and his results overall speak for themselves. It's a good part of the reason I'm actually not banging my head against the wall over the big league club, though maybe you are; current struggles aside, I think this team is in great shape going forward, and in great part it's due to the drafts of the last few years.

But whether you like it or not, outstanding failures are legitimate subjects for discussion and analysis, and it is possible to discuss and analyze without going off one way or the other or reading it as a criticism.

The fact that failures happen doesn't mean that we should ignore them. Just the opposite. Ask an engineer whether catastrophic failures are worth studying.

And I think it can matter, where players hit the wall. It's easy to see that projecting a HS kid into the majors is tricky business. The lower levels of the minors require somewhat less projection, I think, and if a highly-rated kid busts in the lower levels, the question of why and how it happened is legitimate.

There may actually be some value in looking at what happened between Top 10 in 2006 and a .684 OPS in 09 -- and the discussion doesn't really require your approval.

See Hobgood as a possible example of learning from the Rowell pick. It seems that Jordan may be stressing mental makeup and attitude more in his selections. If a guy rates a 9 out of 10 in ability and 10/10 in mental approach/mental makeup, I think Jordan will rate that guy higher on his board than a guy who is 10/10 in ability and 5/10 in approach/mental makeup.

Everyone wanted Matzek but from what I am reading about him, his attitude is "I am great now Show me the money!" Humble and very good beats "I am great now Show me the money!" anyday in my book. I feel Rowell had the Matzek attitude and well, see what you get with the "I already know more than you pros do, I have my own hitting coach" approach.

I think Jordan is learning from his mistakes. And I do think Rowell was a mistake in retrospect not because of his ability we could see on film or that Jordan probably saw in person. It was because of the intangibles, his amenability to learn and his approach to life and the game. It is hard to teach someone who already thinks he knows everything.

[Arthur_Bryant]

See Hobgood as a possible example of learning from the Rowell pick. It seems that Jordan may be stressing mental makeup and attitude more in his selections. If a guy rates a 9 out of 10 in ability and 10/10 in mental approach/mental makeup, I think Jordan will rate that guy higher on his board than a guy who is 10/10 in ability and 5/10 in approach/mental makeup.

Everyone wanted Matzek but from what I am reading about him, his attitude is "I am great now Show me the money!" Humble and very good beats "I am great now Show me the money!" anyday in my book. I feel Rowell had the Matzek attitude and well, see what you get with the "I already know more than you pros do, I have my own hitting coach" approach.

I think Jordan is learning from his mistakes. And I do think Rowell was a mistake in retrospect not because of his ability we could see on film or that Jordan probably saw in person. It was because of the intangibles, his amenability to learn and his approach to life and the game. It is hard to teach someone who already thinks he knows everything.

Great post. I agree completely. It's still early to write off Rowell, but I was looking for much more this year.

I would also add that AM seems to take the same approach. His first winter as GM, Lastings Milledge was available for a pittance, and the O's needed an infusion of talent, but AM didn't bite. I would've. Looks like AM is turning out to be right on that one.

I like your sig. I agree except that, as I see it: "The glass is more than half full, but almost nobody has noticed yet."