MacPhail on Hobgood

[JTrea81]

Well, I am not so sure about that. There is always a tradeoff of risk vs. reward, and different personalities will judge that differently.

Let's say you think the chance that Hobgood will turn out to be an ace is 20%, while you think that the chance that Matzek will turn out to be an ace is 25%. Does that justify spending $4 mm for Matzek when Hobgood would only cost $2.5 mm? (I am not saying this is how the O's saw it, I am merely posing a hypothetical question.)

Yes because the Orioles have that $4 million to burn. Jordan in essence should be given an unlimited budget in the draft because that is our best pipeline of talent into the system. FAs don't want to play in Baltimore in general and we don't seem to be committing our money in the international arena, though that could change. We need the best talent we can get into the system to compete with our AL East rivals (who are more than willing to spend on the draft) and the draft is the best way for this team to acquire it.

[Lucky Jim]

This is my point, and it's that sentence I pointed out that really brings it out for me. I think MacPhail isn't just annoyed about the Hobgood pick, but what it represents, as the Orioles took a more signable pick to avoid spending the premium money and the negotiations which could net them a better player, but also would present a risk because of the money tied up in that one player.

It's that frugality based on his risk adverse nature that is annoying when frugality will not net you premium talent most of the time.

What do you think the value is of the difference between Matzek and Hobgood? And what first-hand information do you base that valuation on?

If you can't answer both of those questions, you're not positioned to determine whether the Orioles were being frugal or instead properly valuing the risk-reward of the top HS arms.

[QBsILLEST1]

What do you think the value is of the difference between Matzek and Hobgood? And what first-hand information do you base that valuation on?

If you can't answer both of those questions, you're not positioned to determine whether the Orioles were being frugal or instead properly valuing the risk-reward of the top HS arms.

This was my question. What is your evidence? And of course wasnt answered because hye doesnt have an answer, what he does have is enough time to go search google and gather enough info to put together a halfhearted argument. Im interested to see what he says though....

To me, Matzek has no more of a chance at being an ace than Hobgood or Miller or Turner etc. The biggest difference between all of them is that it seems that Matzek had the highest floor, he was the safest HS pick, though not necessarily the highest ceiling.

[TGO]

Let's not go to this thread. It is a silly place.

[Pruke]

I tend to think most publications / news outlets rely on the information provided to them by scouts / front office people in the know. In other words, if they are hearing names mentioned repeatedly, they can share that info. My understanding is that Hobgood was a late riser and likely was not being considered in the same light that Joe Jordan's team may have see him in. In Jordan we trust...

[Orioles West]

Ultimately, I think the O's may have another shot Matzek.

I know Oriole fans think the current regime in Baltimore acts a bit too frugal for some tastes the last few years, but the Rockies love to cut corners far more often.

I think Colorado took Matzek because they know they can't afford him. Sounds crazy, but they aren't within a mile (high) of signing him and they knew the kid's demands going in. If the Rox do sign him, I will be surprised.

That aside, I like the idea of a talented pitcher who wants to play for Baltimore, regardless of where he falls in the draft.

-Don

[Lucky Jim]

Yes because the Orioles have that $4 million to burn. Jordan in essence should be given an unlimited budget in the draft because that is our best pipeline of talent into the system. FAs don't want to play in Baltimore in general and we don't seem to be committing our money in the international arena, though that could change. We need the best talent we can get into the system to compete with our AL East rivals (who are more than willing to spend on the draft) and the draft is the best way for this team to acquire it.

Even if they did have $4m to burn, what if they could invest somewhere where the return was better than the marginal difference between prospects? Wouldn't that be a better way to spend the money?

Honestly, this post should disqualify you from opining anywhere but the Rant section. Because you're self-admittedly divorced from reason.

[Lucky Jim]

Well, I am not so sure about that. There is always a tradeoff of risk vs. reward, and different personalities will judge that differently.

Let's say you think the chance that Hobgood will turn out to be an ace is 20%, while you think that the chance that Matzek will turn out to be an ace is 25%. Does that justify spending $4 mm for Matzek when Hobgood would only cost $2.5 mm? (I am not saying this is how the O's saw it, I am merely posing a hypothetical question.)

Yeah. My point, too - though I didn't see this before I made it.

[Hooded Viper]

I think Trea is Brummie_Oriole from Roch's blog. I mean for the love of God, LET IT GO!

[Khaezh12]

I think Trea is Brummie_Oriole from Roch's blog. I mean for the love of God, LET IT GO!

...And Jack

[obannon35]

There's your evidence. MacPhail doesn't want to have to recruit the player to play for the Orioles. Well I'm sorry, but the Orioles especially in the AL East may have to do some actual recruiting to get top talent here. That is MacPhail's job. The Orioles can't sell themselves, even to a HS kid.

There's a reason you have to beg. It's called the player has talent and wants to be compensated for it and would rather get a college education than possibly be stuck on a losing franchise.

Signable does not necessarily = BPA. The Orioles needed to take the BPA and the jury is certainly out if Hobgood was that...

Are you an O's fan?? Everytime I read something you post you're disagreeing with what they're doing....but thing is, the organization is making great strides. So who's right??

[Moose Milligan]

The guy wasn't held in high regard due to the fact as he wasn't as talented as a couple of the other pitchers going after him according to most scouts. Matzek was the most talented pitcher in the draft after Strasburg and that is why he wants the most money.

If anything this shows that MacPhail is more concerned about signablility than having the most talent, and that is not a good thing. I think he's annoyed because suddenly people are calling him on his frugality and they should given the resources this club has at its disposal.

At worst had we not signed our pick, we would have had the 6th pick in the draft next year. We didn't have to draft a signability pick.

Someone call the whambulance. Seriously.

[QBsILLEST1]

Are you an O's fan?? Everytime I read something you post you're disagreeing with what they're doing....but thing is, the organization is making great strides. So who's right??

No hes not an O's fan, he cant be. A fan of the O's doesnt act and say what he does. Even when things werent going good here, though I didnt agree with the franchise's thoughts and direction, I was still a fan, Trea isnt what I consider a fan......Apparently 11 years of losing makes some people fiend for more losing and negativity so they have something to gripe about.

[Shopay]

The more of Trea's posts that I read, the more I become convinced that he is a parody poster that gets his kicks out of "stirring the pot."

[PaulBako]

It's a message board. Some people say whatever they want and want to see the reactions.