A year ago, the O's were 43-40 after 83 games

[Great 2BA FL Gator]

This year was about "building a core". Those core players thus far are Markakis, Roberts, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, Bergesen and Hernandez.

So far, none of them look like they are going to be superstars. And I believe that a few of them need to be if we're going to have a chance to contend.

2009 has been disappointing because of that. I dont have as much faith in "the core" as I did at the beginning of the season -- and it only puts more pressure on the Big 3 to be the saviors of this organization. I still believe that the core can be a part of a contending team, just not the key players that I thought they'd be.

Let's hope they improve over the course of the second half and get back to that "superstar" status.

Why not wait until the end of the year to make these statements. We are in a frustrating losing streak right now, and Nick and AJ are struggling a bit at the plate, but you don't leave any room for them to bounce back. You don't think AJ will continue to improve?? I mean the guy already has 3 more homers than he had last year. If he hits close to .300 this year, I will be ecstatic, it's only his SECOND year in the bigs. And as far as Nick goes, I thoroughly expect him to have a power surge soon. Past two years he has hit 20+ homers and I expect him to do that again, while hitting .300. The main point of this post is, give it some more time. If it's a whole year of Nick, Brob, and AJ struggling, then I will be a little uneasy.

[Hank Scorpio]

You expected to see it in the first half?

As you well know, it drives me bonkers to watch the day to day losing.

But like I've said, the big picture is encouraging. Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta have all continued to have success, as have the Brittons of the world. Snyder earned a promotion to Norfolk by tearing up Eastern League pitching for 3 months. Some of the early guys are showing signs (Joseph, Welty, Avery, etc...)

It sucks to watch the big league team stink, but it does legitimately feel like it'll get better this year and I feel confident that it will be better next year. We may not be in contention next year, but as the Yanks continue to age, we'll definitely have our shot and it'll be because of the waves of young pitching that are starting to come in.

[NewMarketSean]

Why not wait until the end of the year to make these statements. We are in a frustrating losing streak right now' date=' and Nick and AJ are struggling a bit at the plate, but you don't leave any room for them to bounce back. You don't think AJ will continue to improve?? I mean the guy already has 3 more homers than he had last year. If he hits close to .300 this year, I will be ecstatic, it's only his SECOND year in the bigs. And as far as Nick goes, I thoroughly expect him to have a power surge soon. Past two years he has hit 20+ homers and I expect him to do that again, while hitting .300. The main point of this post is, give it some more time. If it's a whole year of Nick, Brob, and AJ struggling, then I will be a little uneasy.[/quote']

Agreed, I said before that I hope they can turn it around in the second half.

[Hank Scorpio]

The won/loss record isn't that important this year...what is important is how the year ends.

AM has made great progress but I don't think you can argue some of the points BB has made in the thread.

That being said, I would blame things on DT much more than AM.

I tend to agree with the bolded, although it hurts to accept it.

If we tank this year, Trembley will probably pay for it, but I'd blame the players before I'd blame either he or MacPhail.

[TonySoprano]

Unreasonable? No.

Assumed? With a starting 5 of Guthrie, Uehara, Simon, Hendrickson and Eaton? Also no.

Wasn't the 2008 starting 5 Guthrie, Cabrera, Trachsel, Loewen, and Burres?

I'm not saying we should have expected a winning record, but shouldn't we have been closer to where we were last year?

[Hank Scorpio]

Wasn't the 2008 starting 5 Guthrie, Cabrera, Trachsel, Loewen, and Burres?

I'm not saying we should have expected a winning record, but shouldn't we have been closer to where we were last year?

I expect by the end of the year, we'll have a better record than last year.

But really, I don't care that much. Regardless if we win 68 games or 78 games, we'll still be bringing up the rear.

[glenn__davis]

Wasn't the 2008 starting 5 Guthrie, Cabrera, Trachsel, Loewen, and Burres?

I'm not saying we should have expected a winning record, but shouldn't we have been closer to where we were last year?

No disrespect, but what's the point? Last year's crappy team played a bit above its head for the first half. This year's crappy team hasn't. Whether they're 7 game worse or 17 games worse, what does it matter? The W/L record this year as a whole is meaningless. The W/L record for the first half is especially meaningless.

[RShack]

You expected a seven game regression (to date) from 2008? Why? Would it have been unreasonable to assume we could have at least held our ground?

Well, I had no fixed numerical expectation about W/L at this point. However, it seemed pretty clear to me that this year was about reversing the trend of starting out well and then finishing like beaten dogs due to no pitching at the end. So, I figured all along that the 2nd half would be better than the 1st half. As to how bad the 1st half would be, the OD rotation told me that we were starting out with canon fodder and that the plan was for things to improve as some of those guys got mowed down and were replaced by other guys who AM didn't want to put on the OD roster.

[Sports Guy]

I tend to agree with the bolded, although it hurts to accept it.

If we tank this year, Trembley will probably pay for it, but I'd blame the players before I'd blame either he or MacPhail.

Ultimately, the players have to play but no way should this team collapse this year...if they do, DT should get a lot of the blame.

[Sports Guy]

Well, I had no fixed numerical expectation about W/L at this point. However, it seemed pretty clear to me that this year was about reversing the trend of starting out well and then finishing like beaten dogs due to no pitching at the end. So, I figured all along that the 2nd half would be better than the 1st half. As to how bad the 1st half would be, the OD rotation told me that we were starting out with canon fodder and that the plan was for things to improve as some of those guys got mowed down and were replaced by other guys who AM didn't want to put on the OD roster.

I agree with this...This season was always going to be set up where we should be a better second half team...But if they aren't, heads should roll.

[Tony-OH]

You expected a seven game regression (to date) from 2008? Why? Would it have been unreasonable to assume we could have at least held our ground?

But if you look over our numbers from the second half of last year, we have improved.

[Tony-OH]

Ultimately, the players have to play but no way should this team collapse this year...if they do, DT should get a lot of the blame.

Here's what I'll agree with. If this team is playing flat in the second half despite the additions from the farm, then Dave will have to take some of the blame no doubt.

I'd like to see Tillman and Arrieta in the rotation in the second half if they are pitching well.

[TonySoprano]

No disrespect, but what's the point? Last year's crappy team played a bit above its head for the first half. This year's crappy team hasn't. Whether they're 7 game worse or 17 games worse, what does it matter? The W/L record this year as a whole is meaningless. The W/L record for the first half is especially meaningless.

That's what I get for trying to defend this;)

Hard to believe, but last year at this time the O's were still over .500. In the last 12 years, the O's have been worse than 36-47 after 83 games only one time, in 1999 (34-49). The team was 36-47 in 3 other seasons (2000, 2004, 2007).

[TonySoprano]

But if you look over our numbers from the second half of last year, we have improved.

True, we went 25-53 after the first 83 games last year. Is it a fair comparison to compare the two considering our pitching ERA tends to go up in the latter months?

2008	W  	L  	ERA  April/March 	16	12	4.26May 	11	16	3.86June 	15	12	4.8July 	10	16	6.06August 	11	17	6.2Sept/Oct 	5	20	5.9

2007	W  	L  	ERA  April/March 	12	14	4.33May 	15	13	3.75June 	8	18	5.11July 	15	10	4.13August 	9	19	6.65Sept/Oct 	10	19	6.89

[Frobby]

It does not surprise me that the team is under .500 right now. It does surprise me somewhat that the team is 11 games under. Even without the typical August/September swoon, this team is in pace to win 70 games. That would be extremely disappointing to me.

This should be a better team that last year's. It should hit better, field better, and pitch better. As to the pitching, I agree that what happens in the second half is extremely important, much more so than what happened in the first half. But the hitting, baserunning and fielding have been a disappointment, no question about it.

- The team is on pace to score 748 runs, 34 less than last year (in 161 games).

- The team is on pace to be thrown out stealing 45 times, compared to 37 last year, without any increase in stolen bases.

- The team is on pace to allow 74 unearned runs, compared to 59 last year.

All that is disappointing, completely independent of the pitching struggles.