BA Midseason Top 25 Prospects

[Frobby]

Considering the fact that Jordan was going between Smoak and Matusz, it tells me that he was on the money with this pick!!!

Missing from the top 25:

#2 pick Pedro Alvarez

#3 pick Eric Hosmer

#6 pick Kyle Skipworth

#9 pick Aaron Crow

Ranked below Matusz and Smoak:

#1 pick Tim Beckham (20th)

#7 pick Yonder Alonso (15th)

#10 pick Jason Castro (19th)

I'd say Jordan did great, if you're judging off this list.

[wickedwitch]

I'll be MUCH more impressed with Jordan's prospecting if/when Townsend shows up in the Top 100 this winter and Hobgood in the Top 25.

I don't care where anyone ranks if they end up as solid ML players.

[Stotle]

Missing from the top 25:

#2 pick Pedro Alvarez

#3 pick Eric Hosmer

#6 pick Kyle Skipworth

#9 pick Aaron Crow

Ranked below Matusz and Smoak:

#1 pick Tim Beckham (20th)

#7 pick Yonder Alonso (15th)

#10 pick Jason Castro (19th)

I'd say Jordan did great, if you're judging off this list.

I'd say he did exactly as you'd hope your scouting director would do with the 4th overall pick. I mean, if we really want to use this list as some sort of measure, this is what would matter.

Ranked behind Matusz and selected before him:

T. Beckham

P. Alvarez

E. Hosmer

Ranked ahead of Matusz and selected after him:

Smoak

G. Beckham (not ranked, but already in the Majors)

Posey

Personally, I think three months of action isn't enough to accurately assess how the picks stack up. I'd still rank the top 10:

Alvarez

T. Beckham

Matusz

Posey

Smoak

Crow

G. Beckham

Skipworth

E. Hosmer

Alonso

Provided the season finishes-up as it is right now, Skipworth and T. Beckham are the only players who's performance I think warrant a switch:

Alvarez

Matusz

Posey

Smoak

Crow

G. Beckham

T. Beckham (assuming he switches off shortstop)

Hosmer

Alonso

Skipworth

Though that's without putting much thought into it.

[Stotle]

I don't care where anyone ranks if they end up as solid ML players.

Sure. Though that's a pretty low standard when we are talking about heaping praise on a director making Top 5 selections.

To be clear, I really do think Jordan does a good job. I'm just not sure identifying Smoak/Matusz as the pick at 1:4 is an example of excellent evaluative skills.

[Singleton]

I'd say he did exactly as you'd hope your scouting director would do with the 4th overall pick. I mean, if we really want to use this list as some sort of measure, this is what would matter.

Ranked behind Matusz and selected before him:

T. Beckham

P. Alvarez

E. Hosmer

Ranked ahead of Matusz and selected after him:

Smoak

G. Beckham (not ranked, but already in the Majors)

Posey

Personally, I think three months of action isn't enough to accurately assess how the picks stack up. I'd still rank the top 10:

Alvarez

T. Beckham

Matusz

Posey

Smoak

Crow

G. Beckham

Skipworth

E. Hosmer

Alonso

Provided the season finishes-up as it is right now, Skipworth and T. Beckham are the only players who's performance I think warrant a switch:

Alvarez

Matusz

Posey

Smoak

Crow

G. Beckham

T. Beckham (assuming he switches off shortstop)

Hosmer

Alonso

Skipworth

Though that's without putting much thought into it.

Really. So if the Pirates offered Alvarez for Matusz straight up, you'd accept the deal? I wouldn't touch it at this point. Posey and Smoak are the only ones on this list I'd consider. Also, to expect (emphasis added) a guy drafted to be in the top 10 of baseball the following year is way to high a bar. Obviously, it can happen and it did but I'm certain every development director would be thrilled to nail a pick like this and would not reasonably expect to every year. Lets be fair here. Give the guy his do.

[Stotle]

Really. So if the Pirates offered Alvarez for Matusz straight up, you'd accept the deal? I wouldn't touch it at this point. Posey and Smoak are the only ones on this list I'd consider. Also, to expect (emphasis added) a guy drafted to be in the top 10 of baseball the following year is way to high a bar. Obviously, it can happen and it did but I'm certain every development director would be thrilled to nail a pick like this and would not reasonably expect to every year. Lets be fair here. Give the guy his do.

I think you are getting too caught up in the actual rankings (the number rather than what it is in relation to), which, in all honesty, have a lot to do with players that have graduated to the majors this year. Matusz was the top pitcher in the draft last year. He wasn't a tough decision at 1:4 and it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone to see him in the top 10 this year (I personally had him in the top 15 this winter).

I think if we aren't expecting a scouting director to make a good pick when he has the entire draft class (save for a handful of players) available to him, then we are in deep trouble.

Regarding Alvarez for Matusz, you don't make that trade because it doesn't necessarily make you better. Both are similar talents. The real question is do I think PIT is kicking themselves for selecting Alvarez over Matusz. The answer to that is "No I do not."

[allstar1579]

Sure. Though that's a pretty low standard when we are talking about heaping praise on a director making Top 5 selections.

To be clear, I really do think Jordan does a good job. I'm just not sure identifying Smoak/Matusz as the pick at 1:4 is an example of excellent evaluative skills.

I think for clarification what Stotle is saying is the true value of a great talent evaluator is finding the diamonds in the rough later in the draft, not just taking the great talent at the top of the draft.

[jets4ever]

I'll still take Matusz over Smoak.

Agreed.

It's taken us twelve years to develop arms as good as these. During that time we've seen a big bat, or two, work it's way through Baltimore.

And, during that time we've won nothing.

Keep stockpiling arms. And, then go get the bats later.

[wickedwitch]

Agreed.

It's taken us twelve years to develop arms as good as these. During that time we've seen a big bat, or two, work it's way through Baltimore.

It's taken a lot longer than twelve years.

[Singleton]

I think you are getting too caught up in the actual rankings (the number rather than what it is in relation to), which, in all honesty, have a lot to do with players that have graduated to the majors this year. Matusz was the top pitcher in the draft last year. He wasn't a tough decision at 1:4 and it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone to see him in the top 10 this year (I personally had him in the top 15 this winter).

I think if we aren't expecting a scouting director to make a good pick when he has the entire draft class (save for a handful of players) available to him, then we are in deep trouble.

Regarding Alvarez for Matusz, you don't make that trade because it doesn't necessarily make you better. Both are similar talents. The real question is do I think PIT is kicking themselves for selecting Alvarez over Matusz. The answer to that is "No I do not."

Data since the MLB draft's inception says that picking in the top 10 or even the top five is far from a sure thing. Pick whatever talent evaluator you want and you will find a significant "miss" rate. So when a team makes a pick and a year later it seems to be working, that team deserves credit. One look at the disappointing results of many of last year's top 10 picks is a perfect example.

Sure, finding a top 10 talent in the 3rd round is even better but it doesn't take away from the fact that he made the right choice with the 5th pick.

I'm equally puzzled by your Alvarez comments. He's striking out a ton, questions remain about his conditioning and whispers are louder than ever that he can't stick at 3rd. Smoak dominated at the same level. Matusz's ERA is less than .5 at the same level (yes small sample). Obviously, things might change but I feel confident that no team would prefer Alvarez to either player at this point.

[Stotle]

Data since the MLB draft's inception says that picking in the top 10 or even the top five is far from a sure thing. Pick whatever talent evaluator you want and you will find a significant "miss" rate. So when a team makes a pick and a year later it seems to be working, that team deserves credit. One look at the disappointing results of many of last year's top 10 picks is a perfect example.

Sure, finding a top 10 talent in the 3rd round is even better but it doesn't take away from the fact that he made the right choice with the 5th pick.

I'm equally puzzled by your Alvarez comments. He's striking out a ton, questions remain about his conditioning and whispers are louder than ever that he can't stick at 3rd. Smoak dominated at the same level. Matusz's ERA is less than .5 at the same level (yes small sample). Obviously, things might change but I feel confident that no team would prefer Alvarez to either player at this point.

That's all fine as long as you realize everyone is three months into their professional careers. I am not writing Alvarez off this early, nor am I willing to change my read on him based off of his first three months of pro ball. I feel confident that no team would contradict my stance. The people actually in the game just don't change their perception of players as quickly as do fans and media members. Nor should they.

Missing on a Top 5 prospect, aside from injury, shouldn't be "That's just part of the game." At minimum, you should be able to grab someone that gives you some ML value. I'm not saying they need to be an all-star, but you shouldn't draft someone that fails to give you anything at the ML level. I think if you look back at the vast majority of Top 5 picks, they pan out. You also get a good number of stars. Regarding those that miss, I'd be willing to bet that a good chunk of them were considered overdrafts (Moskos/Reynolds come to mind off the top of my head).

[wickedwitch]

That's all fine as long as you realize everyone is three months into their professional careers. I am not writing Alvarez off this early, nor am I willing to change my read on him based off of his first three months of pro ball. I feel confident that no team would contradict my stance. The people actually in the game just don't change their perception of players as quickly as do fans and media members. Nor should they.

It's his performance this year combined with his relatively poor year last season that has me down on Alvarez. If it were just this year, it would be different.

[Stotle]

It's his performance this year combined with his relatively poor year last season that has me down on Alvarez. If it were just this year, it would be different.

He had a broken hamate bone his junior year. Isn't that relevant?

When healthy he was quite impressive as a freshman and as a sophomore, as well as during his time with Team USA.

[wickedwitch]

He had a broken hamate bone his junior year. Isn't that relevant?

Of course. I don't think that pre-junior year PA would have hit like this. I think the injury may have (semi-)permanently affected his hitting.

[Stotle]

Of course. I don't think that pre-junior year PA would have hit like this. I think the injury may have (semi-)permanently affected his hitting.

Interesting. I haven't heard of lingering hamate injuries, but I do know it takes a while to regain power in the wrists. I'd be interested to know if there are players who saw long-term effects due to a broken hamate bone. He was hitting for power at HiA, just not average, but maybe it's a comfort thing?