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BA Midseason Top 25 Prospects


winudi

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That's all fine as long as you realize everyone is three months into their professional careers. I am not writing Alvarez off this early, nor am I willing to change my read on him based off of his first three months of pro ball. I feel confident that no team would contradict my stance. The people actually in the game just don't change their perception of players as quickly as do fans and media members. Nor should they.

Missing on a Top 5 prospect, aside from injury, shouldn't be "That's just part of the game." At minimum, you should be able to grab someone that gives you some ML value. I'm not saying they need to be an all-star, but you shouldn't draft someone that fails to give you anything at the ML level. I think if you look back at the vast majority of Top 5 picks, they pan out. You also get a good number of stars. Regarding those that miss, I'd be willing to bet that a good chunk of them were considered overdrafts (Moskos/Reynolds come to mind off the top of my head).

I'm not writing Alvarez off at all. I'd love to have him in our system but with 3 months worth of additional data, I think he would slip down the top ten and certainly past Matusz and Smoak. We probably just need to agree to disagree.

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This is very encouraging, but at the same time, yes I agree that Matusz is a bit low. I guess you can credit that to the fact that Matusz has turned it up another notch mroe recently. Im sure if he had been doing this since day 1 he would be in the top 4. Montero IMO is way too high. This was the biggest blip of the whole list. Madison Bumgarner is an awesome pitcher and is nearly unhittable with his pin point accuaracy of that plus fastball, but how far can he really make it with just a fastball and lacking secondaries. I dont expect people to get off the MadBum bandwagon, but I take Matusz over a guy who may never end up being able to stay in the rotation....IMO Matusz should be the top overall pitcher and in the top 5. Tillman is good where he is as the top RHSP in the minors.

Jarrod Parker is the identical path we should be hoping for from Hobgood....

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    • I find it hard to be mad at him for not being a great 2B when he's being forced there due to the silly Holliday decision. And Mateo barely played 2B in spring. So it's hard not to expect him to kinda suck over there, but that's not really his fault. I expect we'll see similar things when they put him in the OF. The O's want to desperately make him a super utility guy, but he's really just a SS. We'll see. 
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    • Things to take into consideration when evaluating Mounty, - Vertigo - The Wall - Drafted and developed under a different regime.  - He’s only 12 months older than Adley.  Meaning he can grow into being a more “professional hitter”. Who knows how much the vertigo affected him?  Who knows how much the Wall got into his head?  How much does the current coaching staff/analytics dept help him compared to previously. 
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    • Well if Mateo is playing he has to be playing the field. That’s part of his baked in value. He can give multiple players rest at DH while he plays whatever position in the field. You need that rest over 162. The dude is so exciting to watch. You just can’t get heartbroken and start falsely hoping he turns into Alfonso Soriano 2.0. 
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