Bergy's first half

[Dipper9]

To me, one of the best things about the emergence of Bergy is that it makes it that much easier to trade Guts.

Along those lines, the Rockies appear trying to trade Atkins. Is he worth a flier? He's having one down year on an otherwise stellar beginning to his career. Would anyone do Guts for Atkins?

[Stotle]

I don't see how we can necessarily say the talent gap is shrinking. Tillman and Arrieta at AAA are nice, but in order for the gap to be shrinking, don't they have to be a fair amount better than, say, Bowden and Buchholz?

I guess (to me) the Red Sox still look like the team to beat for the foreseeable future, and they continue to invest heavily in the draft and in the international market. If the gap is truly going to close, BAL will have to do it by matching and beating BOS at the amateur talent game, in addition to finding ways to bring ML talent into the organization.

BAL has made great strides -- and I guess now that I think about it the gap is shrinking -- but I question whether the gap is actually shrinking to the point that BAL will reasonably be able to bridge it in the near future...

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't see how we can necessarily say the talent gap is shrinking. Tillman and Arrieta at AAA are nice, but in order for the gap to be shrinking, don't they have to be a fair amount better than, say, Bowden and Buchholz?

I guess (to me) the Red Sox still look like the team to beat for the foreseeable future, and they continue to invest heavily in the draft and in the international market. If the gap is truly going to close, BAL will have to do it by matching and beating BOS at the amateur talent game, in addition to finding ways to bring ML talent into the organization.

BAL has made great strides -- and I guess now that I think about it the gap is shrinking -- but I question whether the gap is actually shrinking to the point that BAL will reasonably be able to bridge it in the near future...

This, I agree with completely.

We need to continue to do what we have done and, oh by the way, when the time is right, bust out the checkbook for some established hitting.

[Flosman]

Just as Bergesen has been a pleasant surprise and has done better than expected, there's a decent chance that at least one of the Big Three turns out to be an unpleasant surprise and doesn't do as well as expected. You never know about these things, but to have three talented pitchers come up and all meet the very hgh expectations that have been set for them, won't be that easy. If and when they are all in the majors pitching well, then we can talk about the talent gap closing. We've seen highly touted Yankee/Red Sox prospects like Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buckhholz not live up to their expectations that quickly, so why would we assume that our guys will just sail along without any issues arising?

I don't think we can assume they will just sail along. However DH and Bergy are a step behind those three in talent. Both DH and more so Bergy have shown they can be ML starters. We have not been in this position in over ten years, of having the quantity and the quality of SPing this close to being ready to contribute in Baltimore. I think it is impossible to say that the gap is not closing. I do think it is fair to ask if our developed pitching will be on par or better than the the MFY and Bosox store bought pitching. I see this has a true test of the theory the the old Oriole way can still compete with the buy a pennant plan. I am excited to see the results. But I do think the FO has executed pretty well recently in putting the pieces in place that matter.

[hoosiers]

Progress has been made...A LOT more has to be done though.

You mean we well could have three of the top 10 RoY candidates, two of the top 10 prospects in baseball in the minors (none of this including our current 2009 draft class) and all of this is still not up to snuff to the point where "A Lot more has to be done ..."

I'd like us to spend the most on the draft and the most for international amateur talent and have the very best farm system, but I also know we live in the real world and that this criticism in this thread is a bit much.

The interesting thing about BB to me was the continued insistence that our FO should have had absolutely no worries about BB, DH or Berken being so good that we would regret having them up for Opening Day and that we should pay no mind to the service time issues that we were consumed with regarding Wieters. There was significant insistence that these guys "were what they were" and that the chances of significant improvement and/or sustained, above average major league success were minimal.

[Stotle]

This, I agree with completely.

We need to continue to do what we have done and, oh by the way, when the time is right, bust out the checkbook for some established hitting.

Yeah. It's great to see so much progress with regards to developing talent. The fact remains BAL has a ways to go at the ML level -- less so if they can bring in ML-ready talent, rather than relying primarily upon developing drafted, signed and trade-acquired talent.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I'd love for Brad to keep up his current pace through the second half, but I'll settle for 15 wins and a 3.50 ERA.

I'm not sure that he will get enough starts to win nine more games. Innings will be a factor.

Put it another way: if he wins nine more games this season he will probably finish with an ERA down around 3.00.

I do think that your line is realistic for his next full season, though.

[Sports Guy]

This is true but I really do not know if it could be done much faster without greatly increasing the risk of failure.

This all depends on what the going rate is for what we have in terms of trade value.

If you are talking about FA signings, bad contracts, etc..I agree with you though.

[Say O!]

You mean we well could have three of the top 10 RoY candidates, two of the top 10 prospects in baseball in the minors (none of this including our current 2009 draft class) and all of this is still not up to snuff to the point where "A Lot more has to be done ..."

I'd like us to spend the most on the draft and the most for international amateur talent and have the very best farm system, but I also know we live in the real world and that this criticism in this thread is a bit much.

The interesting thing about BB to me was the continued insistence that our FO should have had absolutely no worries about BB, DH or Berken being so good that we would regret having them up for Opening Day and that we should pay no mind to the service time issues that we were consumed with regarding Wieters. There was significant insistence that these guys "were what they were" and that the chances of significant improvement and/or sustained, above average major league success were minimal.[/QUOTE]

Good point, although there is a very good reason to have those 3 up here, and that is to find out what you have in them.

In other words, the O's need the Big 3 to be good/great pitchers and so they will develop them as such. BB, DH, and Berken...well that was more of a "we don't know what they can be" situation. They could be part of the solution or just AAAA guys. THIS year was about answering those questions - can BB, DH, Berken be a long-term solution in the MLB pitching staff.

For fringy guys, I think a good argument could be made to test them at the MLB level. Only then will the front office staff find out if their stuff translates. For BB and DH, I think the answer is yes. For Berken, we still gotta see more of him. But without those 3 being up here, we wouldn't know at this point otherwise.

[crawdad]

Well, this old thread after Bergesen's first start was pretty heated and pretty interesting. A good read if you've got the time.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=79755&highlight=Brad+Bergesen

Well I don't think you three are crazy but maybe you've changed your opinion of Bergesen a little since then?

I guess this is something that confuses me about your representation of my assessments. No, my opinion of Bergesen has not changed because what he is doing is within my opinion of him. On projection you do not have a singular description of what will happen. It is a range of probabilities. What he is doing is certainly exceeding the 50th per. for me production-wise. Pitching-wise . . . his utilization of a curveball (that was not present in his first few starts) has increased his value in that regard as well. If you recall, my main point (and still is) he has to develop secondary pitches. He has done that to some degree of success.

Of course, we have to walk back to the understated fact that his stuff is not good. It is average. He is not striking out people, which has been shown time and again to be incredibly problematic . . . even for two seam pitchers. At this point, if you reassess with the new information we have now acquired . . . his likely place is still not much different from where some of us had it before. He still looks like a backend pitcher / middle reliever. With the projected worth of the guys coming up, it appears his likely home will be the pen. He seems like the type of pitcher who does not have much room for err and if he hits a spate where he has a bad foot or a sore arm, it will get ugly out there. Lacking the K's, other pitchers may be given a cup and Bergie may not find himself back in the rotation.

I hope that helps.

To reiterate, projection is not a singular entity. It is a range of probabilities.

[Frobby]

Of course, we have to walk back to the understated fact that his stuff is not good. It is average. He is not striking out people, which has been shown time and again to be incredibly problematic . . . even for two seam pitchers. At this point, if you reassess with the new information we have now acquired . . . his likely place is still not much different from where some of us had it before. He still looks like a backend pitcher / middle reliever. With the projected worth of the guys coming up, it appears his likely home will be the pen. He seems like the type of pitcher who does not have much room for err and if he hits a spate where he has a bad foot or a sore arm, it will get ugly out there. Lacking the K's, other pitchers may be given a cup and Bergie may not find himself back in the rotation.

I hope that helps.

What do you think about his command of his stuff, and how important is that? What about the pace at which he works, how important is that?

I can't disagree that his stuff is just average. But to me, his command has been awfully impressive. It is noticeable how often Zaun or Wieters put their glove in a certain spot, and he's right on it. His slider doesn't break a ton, but he knows how to throw it so that it starts off on the outer half and then breaks off the plate, and he doesn't make a ton of mistakes with it. And he's awfully good at dictating the pace of the game. He holds runners well, and pitching from the stretch doesn't seem to bother him.

Yeah, he could end up in the back of a rotation, but I'm about done with the idea that he's a long reliever. He's effective in the 6th-8th innings far too often for me to think his best value is in the bullpen. To me, he's at least a Joe Blanton type.

[crawdad]

What do you think about his command of his stuff, and how important is that? What about the pace at which he works, how important is that?

I can't disagree that his stuff is just average. But to me, his command has been awfully impressive. It is noticeable how often Zaun or Wieters put their glove in a certain spot, and he's right on it. His slider doesn't break a ton, but he knows how to throw it so that it starts off on the outer half and then breaks off the plate, and he doesn't make a ton of mistakes with it. And he's awfully good at dictating the pace of the game. He holds runners well, and pitching from the stretch doesn't seem to bother him.

Yeah, he could end up in the back of a rotation, but I'm about done with the idea that he's a long reliever. He's effective in the 6th-8th innings far too often for me to think his best value is in the bullpen. To me, he's at least a Joe Blanton type.

He is his command. His whole game is his command. That is overstating it slightly, but it is very important for him to be able to place his pitches around the plate with good accuracy.

Pace? People like to talk about pace, but it really does not meaningfully affect a performance. Kind of like how players who get dirt on their uniform are often well loved.

If he is able to keep his command and he improves that curve or his change . . . he will do well to stick in the rotation. The thing is if he hits a hard spell and his command slips slightly, then we have several people in the system pushing him. He could probably sit well on the backend of an NL rotation, but here he is going to face more competition and, I think, wind up in the pen where he will be more effective as he will not have to worry about stretching himself for 6 or 7 innings.

Anyway, even in shorts bits you can see how slight changes in command quality affects him. When he goes past 70 pitches, he becomes incredibly hittable. I think before then batters have an OPS of about 600, which is impressive. After that arbitrary mark, the OPS rises to 1100. Now we are only talking about 300 PA prior and 100 PA after that mark, but it seems to indicate what I am referring to. His command fails . . . his stuff is just not good enough to keep guys guessing and missing.

[waroriole]

Who saw this coming before spring training?

Everyone always gives him a hard time around here, so I would like to point out that JTrea saw it coming. I believe he kept saying in the spring that Bergy was ready to be a good pitcher on this team. He seems like a modest enough guy not to point this out to everyone, so I will say good for you JTrea.:clap3:

[crawdad]

Bergesen's career is all about command. As others have said, command is a talent just as fastball velocity is. Saying, "If Bergesen's command should get worse" is like saying "Well, if Arrieta's fastball should lose 2-3 mph he will have a lot of trouble."

What I am saying, rather ad nauseum, is that if his command falters, he has nothing left to hang his hat on. Most pitchers are successful for a variety of reasons. If one day there is a failing in one of those skills, the others back it up and at least get one through it. If command is your sole plus skill, it becomes imperative that that one skill remains true.

Likewise, if you have one good pitch . . . you lose it . . . you have nothing to lean on.

[Flosman]

What do you think about his command of his stuff, and how important is that? What about the pace at which he works, how important is that?

I can't disagree that his stuff is just average. But to me, his command has been awfully impressive. It is noticeable how often Zaun or Wieters put their glove in a certain spot, and he's right on it. His slider doesn't break a ton, but he knows how to throw it so that it starts off on the outer half and then breaks off the plate, and he doesn't make a ton of mistakes with it. And he's awfully good at dictating the pace of the game. He holds runners well, and pitching from the stretch doesn't seem to bother him.

Yeah, he could end up in the back of a rotation, but I'm about done with the idea that he's a long reliever. He's effective in the 6th-8th innings far too often for me to think his best value is in the bullpen. To me, he's at least a Joe Blanton type.

Frobby I think it even goes farther than this. IF he continues to sequence well and hit his spots he is going to be a very good starter. His stuff is so-so, but his execution has been outstanding. I really don't think he gets the credit he deserves for repeating this pattern for a long time. I do agree that if he stops executing he will get killed. He is very similar to Wang in that regard. His stuff is not good enough to get away with very many mistakes at all. However I don't think it is a given that the current pattern can't be followed for a decent career. One thing I find interesting about Bergy is he pitches like a long time vet has a very young rookie.