Bergy's first half

[LookinUp]

I don't think that is off from where I am with the late 4s. You see him as a 3, I see him as a 4/5. In terms of terminology, I think an average pitch is major league quality. We do seem to slightly vary in how we rate the 2 seamer. He does get the same vertical movement as Halladay on his fastball, but not the same horizontal movement. Maybe, if given three years, he could turn it up a bit.

Great discussion everyone.

I do think this last point is important. If I were to estimate a probable range of success to Bergesen, I'd certainly take into account the downside that Crawdad and Stotle are mentioning. However, I think the range should be a broad one because I think his upside is underrated.

Bergesen already has an advanced approach and he just keeps getting better. I think he's a work in progress, not a finished product. I'd be willing to bet that he continues to refine every pitch in his arsenal, particularly his change up (which I think will get much better).

For you evaluators...do you take into account his plus make-up and apparent ability to further develop (as demonstrated over several levels) when assessing his potential to improve upon what he is today?

[wickedwitch]

Correct. A control pitcher who can sit in the high 4s is also one who will find himself in the mid 5s at times. A number is not a singular entity, it is a collection of collected events. I think I explained fairly well why I think he will be shuttled back there eventually.

Ok. I see being a relief pitcher as being his floor, while a 4/5 starter as being the most likely projection.

What do you think his floor is? AAAA fodder?

[Lucky Jim]

Bergeson reminds me of Mike Boddicker-unspectacular stuff but real good movement and command of it. Very similar K rates.I think both have to pitch with their brains as well as with their arms.

Boddicker hung around 14 seasons and was a pretty successful pitcher. Bergeson could be a one year fluke and be nothing thereafter. Nothing is guaranteed. But if the comparison with Boddicker holds, he'll have a solid career. And since he's developed at 23 while Boddicker was 27 when he came up, he might be a bigger winner.

Boddicker was 25 when he first pitched a full season. He had some cups of coffee before then. I like the comparison, though Boddicker's breaking stuff was pretty good. He threw a pitch they called the "foshball" that nobody else threw, and a very good curve.

Boddicker's fosh and curve were devastating when he first came up.

[crawdad]

Ok. I see being a relief pitcher as being his floor, while a 4/5 starter as being the most likely projection.

What do you think his floor is? AAAA fodder?

I see his floor is a middle reliever. Not sure why my assessment gets painted so negatively. I've never referred to him as replacement level.

[allstar1579]

Great discussion everyone.

I do think this last point is important. If I were to estimate a probable range of success to Bergesen, I'd certainly take into account the downside that Crawdad and Stotle are mentioning. However, I think the range should be a broad one because I think his upside is underrated.

Bergesen already has an advanced approach and he just keeps getting better. I think he's a work in progress, not a finished product. I'd be willing to bet that he continues to refine every pitch in his arsenal, particularly his change up (which I think will get much better).

For you evaluators...do you take into account his plus make-up and apparent ability to further develop (as demonstrated over several levels) when assessing his potential to improve upon what he is today?

I don't know. Mental make-up is the x-factor. Sometimes it will let a guy pitch beyond what their physical ceiling looks to be. Sometimes a guy will have every tool in the world and just fall apart.