For those who want Carlos Lee....

[ejf1025]

I don't really disagree with your assessment of the O's farm system. I just don't think it's ready to carry us into the playoffs within the next few years unless the O's make improvements through FA or trades. You believe that the farm system is ready to take the O's to the playoffs by 08. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one.

I don't disagree with the philosophy of developing pitchers through the farm system. It's just that I don't believe any of our pitching prospects will be aces. And you need strong number 1 and 2 starters to get to the playoffs. Penn and Loewen are very good prospects. I'm not trying to knock them but I don't hear the minor league baseball experts drooling over them like they drool over Felix Hernandez or Verlander.

You obviously have a lot of faith in our prospects. I wish you the best.

1) No farm system really carries a team into the playoffs, much less a team in this division. What a good farm system does is allows you to plug holes in case of injury and get solid, cheap production. I have never once said do not make a play in FA/trade market, I have said don't expect that to be the boon that saves the franchise. You don't get much better than signing a reigning MVP SS in the free agent market and that did little to help us break our losing trend.

2) King Felix has struggled. I think he'll be very good, but hype does not equal production. Furthermore, Verlander and Hernandez-types aren't jsut sitting there waiting to be picked up; those type of prospects are special and most teams are just lucky they stumbled on to them. Finding an ace like that is not easy...ask Tiger fans how long they've been sitting around for a Verlander to show up. Ask them about going through the growing pains of developing young pitching....I couldn't even imagine the type of heat our youngsters would be getting if one of them lost 20 games....but Maroth and Detroit sure seem to be having the last laugh. No pitching prospect is a sure thing. Just because BaseballAmerica or whoever hasn't drooled over a prospect doesn't mean they are not good. Nor does it mean that our system is barren.

If your strategy is to spend whenever you can in free agency, trade away any prospect not as hyped as Verlander/Hernandez...well...I say good luck to you then...because, in my mind, that's a recipe for disaster.

[El Gordo]

Please tell me which power hitter and pitcher available will suddenly make this team a contender.

If you stuck Carlos Lee and Barry Zito on this team today are we suddenly contenders?

Yes, but I would prefer Mulder to Zito. Of course if none of our pitching prospects pan out we wont, but I'm not worried about Cabrera and Bedard.

[camdenyardblues]

1) No farm system really carries a team into the playoffs, much less a team in this division. What a good farm system does is allows you to plug holes in case of injury and get solid, cheap production. I have never once said do not make a play in FA/trade market, I have said don't expect that to be the boon that saves the franchise.

The reason why I thought you said that the farm system is the golden key (and the only key) is because you said the following in post 86, "This is the only way for us to compete" with "this" referring to the farm system. But given your comments above, we certainly agree.

If your strategy is to spend whenever you can in free agency, trade away any prospect not as hyped as Verlander/Hernandez...well...I say good luck to you then...because, in my mind, that's a recipe for disaster.

Now that I never said!

[NewMarketSean]

Sean, are you that bad at judging talent? You don't think the pitching is that talented?

You don't think Markakis or Ramon Hernandez are very talented?

Give me a break.

If you mean top talent in the league, then only Tejada qualifies ats "top talent" on this team.

We have some good ball players and some players who can be good, but as far as "top talent" is concerned, we're sorely lacking in that area -- hence the failure against the top 3 teams in the AL EAST thus far.

Maybe you should have chosen a less vague term than "top talent."

[Sports Guy]

If you mean top talent in the league, then only Tejada qualifies ats "top talent" on this team.

We have some good ball players and some players who can be good, but as far as "top talent" is concerned, we're sorely lacking in that area -- hence the failure against the top 3 teams in the AL EAST thus far.

Maybe you should have chosen a less vague term than "top talent."

I didn't say top proven talent.

I said top talent. This team has alot of that but the alot of the talent is untapped.

[davearm]

By all accounts, Bedard and Cabrera were tabbed for breakout seasons by several sources. Chris Ray seems to be a top-end closer. Brian Roberts has solidfied himself as a very good major leaguer. Nick Markakis is a top prospects getting playing time. Loewen and Penn are top 100 prospects slated to join the club at some point this year. Rleal has upper-end bullpen potential. Erbe and Liz are absolutely dominating in the minors. Olson has pitched well and with his college experience should be an O sooner rather than later. In fact, I would say that the Orioles pitching system is one of the brightest in baseball. Between the aforementioned, I think a lot of big league clubs would love to have 5 potential front-end starters waiting in their minor leagues.

ejf I'm on board with just about everything you've had to say in this thread.

The one thing I have to point out, however, is that between Loewen, Penn, Erbe, Liz, Olson, Johnson, etc., the O's will do well to have even one of those guys become a front-end starter, and another one or two to have decent MLB careers. The failure rate for young pitchers is quite high (well it's high for all prospects, but especially pitchers).

As a Cub fan this Baseball America link is equal parts enlightening and depressing. In the early 2000s, the Cubs had a few years in a row where their minor league system was rated at or near the best in baseball. Here's the bounty of talent we had, and their BA Top 100 rankings:

2002:

2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs

6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

40. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs

45. David Kelton, 3b, Cubs

48. Bobby Hill, 2b, Cubs

68. Nic Jackson, of, Cubs

80. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs

2001:

2. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs

17. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

22. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs

37. Ben Christensen, rhp, Cubs

68. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs

73. Luis Montanez, ss, Cubs

So I count 10 separate players rated as top 100 talents in one or both years.

Two have become allstar caliber (Prior, Zambrano). Four have flamed out (Christensen, Montanez, Jackson, Kelton). Three have reached MLB but have had utterly forgettable careers (Hill, Cruz, Choi). And CPat makes 10.

So that's a 20% hit rate for guys viewed as amongst the best prospects in all of baseball.

(Fortunately, the silver lining is that Hill was traded for Aramis Ramirez, and Choi for Derrek Lee. )

[camdenyardblues]

ejf I'm on board with just about everything you've had to say in this thread.

The one thing I have to point out, however, is that between Loewen, Penn, Erbe, Liz, Olson, Johnson, etc., the O's will do well to have even one of those guys become a front-end starter, and another one or two to have decent MLB careers. The failure rate for young pitchers is quite high (well it's high for all prospects, but especially pitchers).

As a Cub fan this Baseball America link is equal parts enlightening and depressing. In the early 2000s, the Cubs had a few years in a row where their minor league system was rated at or near the best in baseball. Here's the bounty of talent we had, and their BA Top 100 rankings:

2002:

2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs

6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

40. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs

45. David Kelton, 3b, Cubs

48. Bobby Hill, 2b, Cubs

68. Nic Jackson, of, Cubs

80. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs

2001:

2. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs

17. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

22. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs

37. Ben Christensen, rhp, Cubs

68. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs

73. Luis Montanez, ss, Cubs

So I count 10 separate players rated as top 100 talents in one or both years.

Two have become allstar caliber (Prior, Zambrano). Four have flamed out (Christensen, Montanez, Jackson, Kelton). Three have reached MLB but have had utterly forgettable careers (Hill, Cruz, Choi). And CPat makes 10.

So that's a 20% hit rate for guys viewed as amongst the best prospects in all of baseball.

(Fortunately, the silver lining is that Hill was traded for Aramis Ramirez, and Choi for Derrek Lee. )

Given that Cubs were ranked near the top, the sad thing (at least in terms of our playoff prospects) is that the O's farm system is ranked 10th.

Also, to give a counter example to the Cubs, what about the Brewers? Two or three years ago, their farm system was ranked near the top like the Cubs and a good number of their guys seems to be working out (e.g. Hardy, Weeks, Fielder).

[ejf1025]

ejf I'm on board with just about everything you've had to say in this thread.

The one thing I have to point out, however, is that between Loewen, Penn, Erbe, Liz, Olson, Johnson, etc., the O's will do well to have even one of those guys become a front-end starter, and another one or two to have decent MLB careers. The failure rate for young pitchers is quite high (well it's high for all prospects, but especially pitchers).

As a Cub fan this Baseball America link is equal parts enlightening and depressing. In the early 2000s, the Cubs had a few years in a row where their minor league system was rated at or near the best in baseball. Here's the bounty of talent we had, and their BA Top 100 rankings:

2002:

2. Mark Prior, rhp, Cubs

6. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

40. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs

45. David Kelton, 3b, Cubs

48. Bobby Hill, 2b, Cubs

68. Nic Jackson, of, Cubs

80. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs

2001:

2. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs

17. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs

22. Hee Seop Choi, 1b, Cubs

37. Ben Christensen, rhp, Cubs

68. Carlos Zambrano, rhp, Cubs

73. Luis Montanez, ss, Cubs

So I count 10 separate players rated as top 100 talents in one or both years.

Two have become allstar caliber (Prior, Zambrano). Four have flamed out (Christensen, Montanez, Jackson, Kelton). Three have reached MLB but have had utterly forgettable careers (Hill, Cruz, Choi). And CPat makes 10.

So that's a 20% hit rate for guys viewed as amongst the best prospects in all of baseball.

(Fortunately, the silver lining is that Hill was traded for Aramis Ramirez, and Choi for Derrek Lee. )

Dave- You're absolutely right. I hope I didn't mean to sound like all of them will be good, but it's a great sign that for once there's actually a decent number of them. The fact that we are even thinking about having two rookies in the rotation (Penn and Loewen) along with DCab and Bedard come July/Aug says a lot. First, that our big league rotation is terrible. But second, that our minor league system can actually contribute two young players to the rotation and still have prospects to spare.

Not a big deal for most solid franchises, but for the O's it's almost remarkable.

It's also simple probability: the more prospects, the more chances you get a good one. Sure, a lot of those top 100 guys flop, but nailing that one stud pitcher can turn a franchise. As a Cubs' fan you would know; Zambrano makes it a lot easier to build a rotation, certainly lesses the sting of any failed prospects.

[davearm]

Dave- You're absolutely right. I hope I didn't mean to sound like all of them will be good, but it's a great sign that for once there's actually a decent number of them. The fact that we are even thinking about having two rookies in the rotation (Penn and Loewen) along with DCab and Bedard come July/Aug says a lot. First, that our big league rotation is terrible. But second, that our minor league system can actually contribute two young players to the rotation and still have prospects to spare.

Not a big deal for most solid franchises, but for the O's it's almost remarkable.

It's also simple probability: the more prospects, the more chances you get a good one. Sure, a lot of those top 100 guys flop, but nailing that one stud pitcher can turn a franchise. As a Cubs' fan you would know; Zambrano makes it a lot easier to build a rotation, certainly lesses the sting of any failed prospects.

The O's system has certainly improved quite a bit in recent years, and you're correct that it's sure nice to hang your hat on having several promising young arms in the fold. There's definitely something to be said for strength in numbers.

I just get ugly flashbacks when I see folks say something like, "just wait until 2008, when our rotation is Cabrera Bedard Penn Loewen Erbe! We'll be unstoppable!"

You didn't say quite that, but the flashbacks came anyway.

[El Gordo]

If you mean top talent in the league, then only Tejada qualifies ats "top talent" on this team.

We have some good ball players and some players who can be good, but as far as "top talent" is concerned, we're sorely lacking in that area -- hence the failure against the top 3 teams in the AL EAST thus far.

Maybe you should have chosen a less vague term than "top talent."

The Yankees have the best 3B the game. Who else on that team is the best at their position? Matsui? Shefeild? Damon. These guys are top 5-10, but not number one. What about the Bosox? Ortiz is the best DH, is Manny the best LF? one of the top 3-5 maybe. Varitek the best catcher? I think you could find some arguements. Tejada, best SS? close. Roberts, 2B? One of the best. Mora, 3B? top 5-10, Hernadez one of the best.