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Steve Trachsel Traded


RichieRich

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I don't see a need to do that - when FIP and its cousins will tell me what I need to know. Read my post which explained FIP and the normalizer. I'm sorry, I don't feel a need to try to make adjustments to actual R.

No matter what method we are anyone else comes up with someone will complain that it isn't right - and this time next year I'll be having a similar conversation with some forlorn Pirates fan who feels a need to post on another team's board for some odd reason.

Why do you feel the need to attack me because I happen to be a Cubs fan and not an O's fan?

What on earth does that have to do with this issue?

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Hey, I tried to have that conversation but you completely ignored a post that states my position and thoughts pretty clearly (see post #205). Instead, you keep going back to the misguided notion that runs are being ignored.

I did respond to post #205, with post #210 (which you in turn responded to with #212).

You even acknowledged my "misguided notion" when you conceded that "R is not part of the formula." It should be abundantly clear by now that that's precisely what I have a problem with.

I'm not going to convince you, you aren't going to convince me, so why even try?

I guess all that's left to do is to become belligerent and rude then. :rolleyes:

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You call not even touching on the primary content of a post as a response to said post?

R does not need to be part of the formula - that is what should be abundantly clear. The formula is telling us what R should be. If you want R, reverse the formula. Guthrie has allowed 64 ER. His FIP ERA according to THT is 4.66. Reverse everything, and FIP ERA tells us a pitcher with his numbers should have allowed roughly 83 runs. There, you have your precious runs.

Sticking with THT's data, Guthrie's DER is .744 compared to a team DER of .695. So make adjustments on the number of 1Bs, 2Bs, and 3Bs based on that. Those extra hits will add to his 64 runs allowed.

He has a 75.7% LOB%. Adjust that down to the league average of 70% or the team average of 69% (yet another indicator of a very bad bullpen, by the way). Lowering his LOB% adds to his R total.

As for your last line, I guess that stuff is in the eye of the beholder - whether those eyes are rolling or not.

What kind of confidence do you have about Guthrie long term?

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So you want to take this thread in yet another direction? :eek:

Honestly, I need to get on my laptop and look at his numbers (I keep them in my own personal spreadsheet on there). My gut, non numbers induced opinion, is that he'll fine as a back end of the rotation starter on a good team, or middle of the rotation starter on well, a team like the Orioles. Sort of an Oregonian Rodrigo Lopez you might say.

Hopefully this reply was not rude and full of belligerence. :002_scool:

No but it was wrong. :D;)

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