Jump to content

Is the cupboard now bare?


DocJJ

Recommended Posts

Up to the Majors: Berken, Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz, Mickolio, Hernandez, Reimold.

Arrieta will probably join that list in the future.

After that, is the cupboard bare? I see a lot of guys with potential, but no "sure things" at all....

As far as pitchers go, assuming good health, I'd keep an eye on Erbe, Patton, Britton. Hobgood will be worth watching, but is several years away if he makes it at all.... Some fringe guys with potential would include Beato, Bascom, Johnson.

For position players, things are even more sparse. Caleb Joseph sure looks like he can hit. I don't know how his catching is coming along...perhaps a move to First Base might be considered? Brandon Snyder has elevated his average up from .200 to .258 in the past 11 games, though the power seems to have completely vanished. I don't think we'll have much use for a singles-hitting first baseman, so it would be nice to see some extra-base hits.

We have a couple of young guys worth keeping an eye on Joshua Bell, brought over from the Dodgers organization and Brandon Waring. They both have power, but are years away, if they make it at all.

The Cupboard isn't completely barren, but incredibly depleted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 37
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Up to the Majors: Berken, Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz, Mickolio, Hernandez, Reimold.

Arrieta will probably join that list in the future.

After that, is the cupboard bare? I see a lot of guys with potential, but no "sure things" at all....

As far as pitchers go, assuming good health, I'd keep an eye on Erbe, Patton, Britton. Hobgood will be worth watching, but is several years away if he makes it at all.... Some fringe guys with potential would include Beato, Bascom, Johnson.

For position players, things are even more sparse. Caleb Joseph sure looks like he can hit. I don't know how his catching is coming along...perhaps a move to First Base might be considered? Brandon Snyder has elevated his average up from .200 to .258 in the past 11 games, though the power seems to have completely vanished. I don't think we'll have much use for a singles-hitting first baseman, so it would be nice to see some extra-base hits.

We have a couple of young guys worth keeping an eye on Joshua Bell, brought over from the Dodgers organization and Brandon Waring. They both have power, but are years away, if they make it at all.

The Cupboard isn't completely barren, but incredibly depleted.

Theres no sure things beause we brought them all up. We now need to allow the unsure prospects to become more sure things. Itll take a year or so but itll happen....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, for all our talk about the dearth of position prospects, I think just about the entire line-ups at Frederick and Delmarva are worth keeping an eye on.

At Frederick you have Angle, Adams, Florimon, Joseph, Henson, Waring, Widlansky, and I feel like I'm forgetting someone. At Delmarva you have Avery, Hoes, Welty, Hudson, even a guy like Mahoney.

All of these are flawed prospects, all of them have issues that may very well hold them back, but they also all have potential to become MLers IMO depending on how they develop. So no blue-chippers, but again, worth keeping an eye on.

More than you can say for the AAA and AA teams, which basically have Brandon Snyder between them.

From a pitching standpoint, don't forget about guys like Beal and Bundy and the '09 draft class. Yes, they're way far away, but worth following.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think anyone's cupboard would be depleted considering the number of players who have reached the majors this year. A good farm system should produce 2-3 major leaguers a year. We've had 7 guys reach the majors for the first time this year, and 6 of them figure to be long-term pieces (I'm excluding Berken for that purpose, though he still could make it).

For the next 1-2 years, I think you have Arrieta, Britton, Erbe, Snyder and Bell as guys likely to reach the majors in that time frame. Joseph and Waring also are possibilities, along with Justin Turner. That's still a pretty good stable in that time frame.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, for all our talk about the dearth of position prospects, I think just about the entire line-ups at Frederick and Delmarva are worth keeping an eye on.

At Frederick you have Angle, Adams, Florimon, Joseph, Henson, Waring, Widlansky, and I feel like I'm forgetting someone. At Delmarva you have Avery, Hoes, Welty, Hudson, even a guy like Mahoney.

All of these are flawed prospects, all of them have issues that may very well hold them back, but they also all have potential to become MLers IMO depending on how they develop. So no blue-chippers, but again, worth keeping an eye on.

More than you can say for the AAA and AA teams, which basically have Brandon Snyder between them.

From a pitching standpoint, don't forget about guys like Beal and Bundy and the '09 draft class. Yes, they're way far away, but worth following.

Well, you have to thin about Britton poutting himself on the map and Erbe still. They over the next 2 years may end up sure things just like Tillman did. Theres no reason they cannot. Erbe has a similar ceiling and is having a break out year. A prospect has to basically pay his dues before becoming known as a top prospect. Arrieta had to have a break out season in Fredrick. Tillman had to have a good season in Bowie. Spoone was just outside the top 100 list before 08 and with a good seaosn would have been on it, but as we all know the injury took him away. By default since we graduated our best prospects in the upper minors, all of our kids now are in the low minors. Once they continues to develop and make it to AA and AAA then we will see these kids either ranked on the lists or fall off as prospects. If Caleb Josepgh right now were in AAA and tearing it up like he is, then he'd no doubt be a top 100 guy....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, you have to thin about Britton poutting himself on the map and Erbe still. They over the next 2 years may end up sure things just like Tillman did. Theres no reason they cannot. Erbe has a similar ceiling and is having a break out year. A prospect has to basically pay his dues before becoming known as a top prospect. Arrieta had to have a break out season in Fredrick. Tillman had to have a good season in Bowie. Spoone was just outside the top 100 list before 08 and with a good seaosn would have been on it, but as we all know the injury took him away. By default since we graduated our best prospects in the upper minors, all of our kids now are in the low minors. Once they continues to develop and make it to AA and AAA then we will see these kids either ranked on the lists or fall off as prospects. If Caleb Josepgh right now were in AAA and tearing it up like he is, then he'd no doubt be a top 100 guy....

I wasn't ignoring those pitchers, just mentioning guys that DocJJ hadn't.

BTW, in my post I totally forgot about Bell at AA (forgivable) and Turner at AAA (not so much). Certainly those are two guys to watch w/ Snyder at those levels.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wasn't ignoring those pitchers, just mentioning guys that DocJJ hadn't.

I gfuess I wasnt really speaking specifically at you, more or less everyone who says our cupboard is bare and we have no proven prospects.

Also dont forget Townsend will be a force as well once he gets acclimated here....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also dont forget Townsend will be a force as well once he gets acclimated here....

Maybe, maybe not. 3rd round picks are more likely to fizzle than not.

Don't take this the wrong way, because I enjoy your contributions and think you're a very knowledgable poster, but I think sometimes you put the cart before the horse a bit. You say Joseph would be a Top 100 guy if he were hitting .300 at AAA. Well, he's not, and thus he can't be considered that guy yet. Doesn't mean I'm not excited about him, just that he's not at that level yet.

Your point seems to be that our system can develop into a top farm system once again, and I have no disagreement with that. But we're going to take a step back for a year or two while that happens, IMO. Which, as Frobby pointed out, is perfectly expected with as much as we've lost.

I do know that I think that Bowie and Frederick will be very interesting to watch next year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Norfolk next year could potentially have candidates for the rotation of Arrieta, Patton, Erbe, Berken, Steve Johnson, maybe even Bascom. Tanaka, Perrault, Perez, Thall, Liz and Ouellette could find themselves in the pen. They would start the year with Bell at third, Snyder at first. I think that any of these guys has potential to crack the rotation or lineup next year with solid seasons. There are still tons of young guys, while not necessarily BA top 100 guys (exceptions being Erbe, Snyder and Arrieta) that we can look forward to having solidify our pen, rotation and lineup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cupboard's not bare, but we may not have more than one top 100 guy.

Our best prospects would then be from among Arrieta, Hobgood, Britton, Erbe, Snyder and Avery - generally, not wanting to get particular about order or who is sixth or seventh. I think our system would fall to around 15-20 or worse - having lost three top prospects plus Reimold, Bergesen and Berken. That is too much talent to replace via the draft, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe, maybe not. 3rd round picks are more likely to fizzle than not.

Don't take this the wrong way, because I enjoy your contributions and think you're a very knowledgable poster, but I think sometimes you put the cart before the horse a bit. You say Joseph would be a Top 100 guy if he were hitting .300 at AAA. Well, he's not, and thus he can't be considered that guy yet. Doesn't mean I'm not excited about him, just that he's not at that level yet.

Your point seems to be that our system can develop into a top farm system once again, and I have no disagreement with that. But we're going to take a step back for a year or two while that happens, IMO. Which, as Frobby pointed out, is perfectly expected with as much as we've lost.

I do know that I think that Bowie and Frederick will be very interesting to watch next year.

No no, I said if he was having this seaon at AAA, the dude was hitting .330 as a catcher....and he is young, he would definately be a top 100 guy at the AAA level. I know he isnt hitting .300 at AAA, I never sauid he was, thats why I said IF, and I was using it to explain why it seems like we have no one proven. Its because we graduated everyone who is proven and are left with kids who need to prove themselves. of course itll take some time to get back to where we were. I never said it wouldnt take time. Right now though depending on who stays a prospect and who graduates, we arent THAT bad off.

....Now, to say a 3rd round pick is more likely to fizzle our because he is a 3rd round pick is pretty superficial. Just ebcause he was drafted in the 3rd means nothing at all. He has the skills to succeed, and good power and conatact. But just because hes a 3rd rounder he is more likely to fizzle out? Can you explan why?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No no, I said if he was having this seaon at AAA, the dude was hitting .330 as a catcher....and he is young, he would definately be a top 100 guy at the AAA level. I know he isnt hitting .300 at AAA, I never sauid he was, thats why I said IF, and I was using it to explain why it seems like we have no one proven.

I know you didn't say that, in fact I included the "if" in my paraphrasing of you. But it's still a meaningless argument until he actually does it.

Now, to say a 3rd round pick is more likely to fizzle our because he is a 3rd round pick is pretty superficial. Just ebcause he was drafted in the 3rd means nothing at all. He has the skills to succeed, and good power and conatact. But just because hes a 3rd rounder he is more likely to fizzle out? Can you explan why?

Sure. Because 3rd rounders are more likely to not reach the majors than to reach them. Of course it's a superficial arguement, but do you dispute that?

Does he have some tools that will hopefully help him succeed? Sure. But so does every other 3rd round pick. That's why they're selected that high. Doesn't mean he's going to succeed, though I hope he does.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up to the Majors: Berken, Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz, Mickolio, Hernandez, Reimold.

Arrieta will probably join that list in the future.

After that, is the cupboard bare? I see a lot of guys with potential, but no "sure things" at all....

As far as pitchers go, assuming good health, I'd keep an eye on Erbe, Patton, Britton. Hobgood will be worth watching, but is several years away if he makes it at all.... Some fringe guys with potential would include Beato, Bascom, Johnson.

For position players, things are even more sparse. Caleb Joseph sure looks like he can hit. I don't know how his catching is coming along...perhaps a move to First Base might be considered? Brandon Snyder has elevated his average up from .200 to .258 in the past 11 games, though the power seems to have completely vanished. I don't think we'll have much use for a singles-hitting first baseman, so it would be nice to see some extra-base hits.

We have a couple of young guys worth keeping an eye on Joshua Bell, brought over from the Dodgers organization and Brandon Waring. They both have power, but are years away, if they make it at all.

The Cupboard isn't completely barren, but incredibly depleted.

I'd like to think of Brandon Snyder adjusting to AAA much like MW isn't hitting for any power in the majors.. You have to crawl before you can walk. The power should come as he is adjusting. I'm just glad he's starting to hit.

Yes our farm system is depleted a bit, but we have graduated 7 guys to the majors this year. We had a wave of guys that were ready. Now we will have to rebuild the system a bit. But it will happen in a few years time.

6 of the 7 guys we brought up should be long term pieces. So technically we shouldn't need a ton of help from the farm for a few years, which by then we should have it all reloaded and ready to go. And in the mean time we'll have guys like Snyder, Bell, Arrieta coming up..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up to the Majors: Berken, Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz, Mickolio, Hernandez, Reimold.

Arrieta will probably join that list in the future.

After that, is the cupboard bare? I see a lot of guys with potential, but no "sure things" at all....

As far as pitchers go, assuming good health, I'd keep an eye on Erbe, Patton, Britton. Hobgood will be worth watching, but is several years away if he makes it at all.... Some fringe guys with potential would include Beato, Bascom, Johnson.

For position players, things are even more sparse. Caleb Joseph sure looks like he can hit. I don't know how his catching is coming along...perhaps a move to First Base might be considered? Brandon Snyder has elevated his average up from .200 to .258 in the past 11 games, though the power seems to have completely vanished. I don't think we'll have much use for a singles-hitting first baseman, so it would be nice to see some extra-base hits.

We have a couple of young guys worth keeping an eye on Joshua Bell, brought over from the Dodgers organization and Brandon Waring. They both have power, but are years away, if they make it at all.

The Cupboard isn't completely barren, but incredibly depleted.

Yeah, I think you're basically right -- the cupboard is pretty bare now. To your list of call-ups from the minors you could add Wieters and Montanez.

I'd say don't give up on Snyder, or his power potential. So many fans discount the significance of the jump from AA to AAA, which is the biggest jump in the minors because AAA players are significantly older and a far large number have major league experience. Snyder is finding the adjustment from AA to AAA pitching to be much tougher than Advanced A to AA, which I think is typical. But he's coming along. If he were 25, his home run numbers might be a concern, but not for a 22 year old. Arrieta also has found the jump from AA to AAA to be the big one, and he's still struggling. If memory serves, Berken had very little time in AAA, not enough to establish his success at that level, and that's related to why he has struggled so much for the O's. He was brought up without the requisite experience. I know Matusz has more talent, but I think it's a mistake to bring him up now, before he's shown he can dominate the more sophisticated hitters you see in AAA. Hope I'm wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...