Orioles' 40 Man Roster 2009/2010 OffSeason Discussion

[Crazysilver03]

This is part one of a two part post.

This is an attempt to get some discussion going on the board, as well as serve informative purposes. This is a thread about the 40 man roster and the possible additions and subtractions that will occur in the coming months.

Under the ADDITIONS section, are players who will be considered for inclusion on the 40 man roster this coming off-season. There are two probabilities listed: 1) the probability of being added to the 40 man roster, and 2) the probability of being selected in the Rule 5 draft if they are left unselected by the Orioles. Under the SUBTRACTINOS section, are players who will be considered for removal from the 40 man roster. The two probabilities listed include: 1) the probability of being removed from the 40 man roster, and 2) the probability of being claimed on waivers if they are removed from the roster.

Additions

The players listed below are players who are eligible to be taken in the Rule 5 draft. These players have spent 4 years in the minors, if signing their professional contract at age 19 or older, or 5 years in the minors, if signing their professional contract at age 18 or younger (Snyder, Erbe, Johnson). Just in case anyone is wondering, Arrieta and Britton do not need to be protected for another season.

Brandon Snyder

Addition Chance: 100%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 100%

Reason: The Orioles top positional prospect will be protected and will make a push for the majors in mid-2010.

Brandon Erbe

Addition Chance: 100%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 100%

Reason: Even though Erbe has had to battle through injuries, he is pitching well at Double-A and could make a push for the majors in 2010, possibly out of the bullpen.

Josh Bell

Addition Chance: 100%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 100%

Reason: The Orioles second best positional prospect and only long term option at 3B will be protected.

Steve Johnson

Addition Chance: 100%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 99%

Reason: The Orioles will protect a pitcher who has had a 10K/9IP ratio during the 2009 season.

Josh Perrault

Addition Chance: 90%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 90%

Reason: Perrault was actually acquired in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft out of Washington’s organization this past off-season. He has amazing peripherals and is a dark horse candidate in the bullpen, even though he is already 27.

Justin Turner

Addition Chance: 100%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 75%

Reason: Turner projects mainly as a utilityman in the majors, but with a dearth of positional prospects in the minors the Orioles will most certainly protect Turner.

Jeffery Fiorentino

Addition Chance: 20%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 40%

Reason: While Fiorentino is out of options, the Orioles could elect to protect him if they feel he won’t remain in the organization as a minor league free agent and believe he is blossoming into what they thought he would be when he was selected in the 3rd round. If the Orioles feel Pie can turn into an everyday player, then he will most likely be traded and Fiorentino could take over as the 4th OF with his ability to play in CF. If the Orioles resign him as a free agent before the Rule 5 draft, he could be selected in the draft.

Blake Davis

Addition Chance: 10%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 5%

Reason: Trembley really likes Davis’ defense and he had a shot at claiming the back-up SS spot in ST before his injury. He will never hit for much in the majors (.700 OPS) but he could replace Cesar Izturis following the 2010 season if no better short-stop is found. Because he is defensive heavy, the Orioles might not add him to the roster until he is needed in the majors, believing he won’t be taken in the Rule 5.

Pedro Florimon

Addition Chance: 10%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 10%

Reason: This might very well be the toughest choice of all. Florimon had an extremely hot April but has since floundered. He has the defense to be a major league shortstop but the question will be if his bat can carry him in the majors or not. The Orioles will hope his major slump will scare teams away from selecting him in the Rule 5 draft and that Florimon can figure things out in 2010 and provide them with a better idea of how he will project, though the Padres selection of Everth Cabrera in this past year’s Rule 5 draft out of Colorado’s Single-A shows that anything is possible.

Chad Thall

Addition Chance: 10%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 15%

Reason: Drafted in 2005, he was exposed to the Rule 5 draft last year without any takers. Thall has had a break-out year in 2009 at Bowie, allowing only 35 hits in 47.1 innings pitched, while striking out 44. The only problem is the 22 walks he has allowed in the same time. A team might take a chance on him tuning the walks down as he has averaged a 2.8 BB/9 most of his career, except this season (4.4BB/9). With the depth in the pitching department, the Orioles will most likely not protect him.

Jim Hoey

Addition Chance: 1%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 20%

Reason: In his return from injury, he has posted solid numbers in AA minus a high walk rate. With that said, there is a slight chance the Orioles think he could be useful down the road but with the depth, he will most likely remain off the 40 man roster but another team could take a flier on him because of his past experience in the majors. If he goes unclaimed, he will remain with the Orioles as he still has two years before he can be a minor league free agent. Hoey has two option years remaining, which will play a deciding factor into his selection.

Pedro Beato

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 1%

Reason: Beato has been a complete disaster at Frederick in 39 starts between two seasons and is looking like a bust after being selected in the supplemental round after B.J. Ryan signed with the Blue Jays. The Orioles must still seem something with him though with his promotion to Bowie following Matusz’s promotion to Baltimore. If Beato can show something in AA, a team could take a flier on him as a long man in their bullpen, though there is nothing he can do at this point to warrant being protected on Baltimore’s 40 man roster.

David Pauley

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 1%

Reason: Pauley might be added to spare innings from the young arms in September, but will be removed from the 40 man roster immediately after, if the event occurs. If he doesn’t leave as a minor league free agent, there is the slim, to nil, chance he could be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Nate Nery

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: Nery posed the possibility of being picked up in the Rule 5 draft, but he is thinking too highly of himself. At age 24, while still in A+, he doesn’t dominate lefties and doesn’t throw hard, so no one will take a flier on him.

Ryan Ouellette

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: He isn’t a power pitcher, sporting a 5.5K/9, 9.5H/9, and 4.1BB/9 for his career. He will most likely never touch the majors, with the Orioles nor another team.

Ryan Adams

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: Adams looked to be having a break-out year in 2008 but was derailed in 2009 by injuries, putting up very unimpressive numbers since his return to Frederick.

Jonathon Tucker

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: He is organizational filler, nothing more, nothing less.

Adam Donachie

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: Even though the Orioles took him in the Rule 5 draft, no one will take a flier on a catcher who may very well never make it past AA.

Scott Moore

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: He was putting up decent at Norfolk before being derailed by an injury that cost him the season. Even with Mora on his way out, the option-less Moore will not find a spot on the 40 man roster this season. The Orioles will hope that he stays as a minor league free agent and can be kept for depth at Norfolk, with Costanzo out of the picture and Bell charging up the ranks.

Mike Costanzo

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: After being exposed to the Rule 5 draft last offseason, Costanzo responded by having his worst season ever in AAA before getting demoted to Bowie, where he suffered a season ending injury. He has a high chance of being released from the organization this offseason.

Michael Aubrey

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: He helped fill the void left by the departures of Montanez, Salazar, Wieters, and Reimold in Norfolk but he doesn’t hit enough to warrant being called up to the majors anytime soon. He will test minor league free agent waters this off-season.

Andy Mitchell

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: The only scenario in which Andy Mitchell is added to the Orioles is for a September call-up to honor him for the work he has done in the minors the last couple of years. He would be promptly removed from the 40 man roster after the season though.

Danny Figueroa

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: A 26 year old OF putting up a .869 OPS in Bowie, Danny has average defense in the OF and because of that will not be kept as a bench player by another team through the Rule 5 draft.

Paco Figueroa

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: A 26 year old 2B putting up a .842 OPS in Bowie this season. The Orioles are going to hope that the fact Figueroa has played in only 72 games in 2 seasons will keep him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Miguel Abreu

Addition Chance: 0%

Rule 5 Draftee Chance: 0%

Reason: Abreu was exposed to the Rule 5 draft last off-season and no one took a flier on him. While the 2B has improved his offensive stats in his promotion to Bowie, his OPS is still only .711. His best defense comes at 2B but with Roberts locked in long term at the position and Justin Turner an adequate fill-in option, don’t look for Abreu to be protected.

[Crazysilver03]

This is part two of a two part post.

Subtractions

The Orioles currently have 39 players on their 40 man roster. The Orioles will see at least 4 openings from free agents – Hendrickson, Baez, Mora, and Huff – and possibly a 5th, Zaun. Mora’s option will most certainly be declined, while even if Huff is offered arbitration, he will have to declare free agency first. If Zaun’s option is picked up, he will never lose his spot on the 40 man roster.

Chris Waters

Removal Chance: 100%

Waiver Claim Chance: 1%

Reason: Waters only has one option remaining and was originally expected to be converted to a reliever but spent most of the AAA season as a starter, posting rather poor numbers. He might have a future as a reliever, but the Orioles will not give him that chance to accomplish that while he is on their 40 man roster. He served as depth for the 2009 season but his purpose has been served but because of a lot of depth in the Orioles’ minors, Waters’ days with the Orioles are numbered. He will be a minor league free agent following the outright.

Rich Hill

Removal Chance: 100%

Waiver Claim Chance: 1%

Reason: The Rich Hill trade is complete, with the Orioles only giving up money. With Hill’s ineffectiveness in 2009, as well as hiding an injury for the second time in as many seasons, the Orioles will remove Hill from the 40 man roster and possibly not even offer a minor league contract. Hill has a limited future with this club, if he has one at all, and it would best suit him to move on to another team after wearing out his welcome. Because of the potential, there is still a slim chance that a team could make a waiver claim, but it is highly doubtful, as signing him to a minor league deal will serve most teams better.

Alfredo Simon

Removal Chance: 100%

Waiver Claim Chance: 0%

Reason: Simon’s chances with the Orioles disappeared when he had to get TJ surgery. He doesn’t have a future in this organization and will be removed from the roster. He is out of options so no team will claim him outright. He will settle for a minor league contract with another team. He is currently on the 60 Day DL so he doesn’t count against the Orioles 40 man roster right now but will have to be activated prior to the offseason.

Alberto Castillo

Removal Chance: 100%

Waiver Claim Chance: 0%

Reason: Castillo was called up to serve as a situational lefty following the release of Jamie Walker but could not secure his position. Just like last season, he will be removed from the roster immediately following the season. He will be a minor league free agent following the outright.

Jim Miller

Removal Chance: 99%

Waiver Claim Chance: 10%

Reason: The 27 year old Miller didn’t embarrass himself when he was called up in September 2008, but a poorly placed injury after a decent 2009 spring training hurt him. While he has 16 saves for Norfolk, he has allowed more than a hit per inning and has just over a 2:1 K:BB ratio. He was thought of as a throwaway prospect when he was acquired for Rodrigo Lopez a few seasons ago and though he might receive a September call-up once Norfolk is out of the race, the Orioles will most definitely remove him from the roster to make room for a more important prospect. He will be a minor league free agent following the outright.

Bob McCrory

Removal Chance: 90%

Waiver Claim Chance: 75%

Reason: McCrory has spent two years (and two options) on the Orioles 40 man roster, only receiving a few innings randomly. He has never really wowed when with the Orioles and with Ray, Mickolio, Perrault, Sarfate, and possibly Liz ahead of him on the depth chart, expect the Orioles to remove him because he has no future with the Baltimore Orioles. But with one option year remaining, expect Washington or Kansas City to take a flier on him for next season. He could be a decent middle reliever if given an extended shot, which will not be provided in Baltimore. If McCrory clears waivers, he will remain in the Orioles organization.

Radhames Liz

Removal Chance: 50%

Waiver Claim Chance: 90%

Reason: After failing as a starter at the major league level, Liz was converted to a reliever during spring training 2009 and was horrible out of the Orioles bullpen in limited chances. In July, the Orioles moved him back into the rotation at Bowie, and now Norfolk. After two tries in the majors, his chances are coming to an end. There is a good chance the Orioles will try and pass him through waivers because of the need for the 40 man roster spot but some team will probably pick him up off of waivers since he has one option year remaining and still a lot of potential.

Dennis Sarfate

Removal Chance: 40%

Waiver Claim Chance: 70%

Reason: MacPhail will look to trade Sarfate before he would just remove him from the roster, but his time with the Orioles is drawing to an end. While he doesn’t have enough service time to have super-two eligibility for arbitration, he will be arbitration eligible after 2010. If the Orioles don’t move him in the off-season, there is a good chance he goes in Spring Training because he is out of options and the Orioles will have several candidates for the bullpen spots.

Brian Bass

Removal Chance: 15%

Waiver Claim Chance: 30%

Reason: Bass has pitched admirably, mostly in mop-up roles but has been mostly effective in some higher leverage situations after getting off to a bad start. He could be kept as the long man but the Orioles will have the option of turning that over to Berken, who is already on the 40 man roster and has options remaining. If the Orioles don’t move him in the off-season, there is a good chance he goes in Spring Training because he is out of options and the Orioles will have several candidates for bullpen spots.

Robert Andino

Removal Chance: 15%

Waiver Claim Chance: 5%

Reason: With Izturis (and Wigginton) still in the fold for 2010 and the opportunity for Justin Turner to take over as the utility man, the Orioles could look to sneak Andino through waivers. While he played above average defense during Izturis’ absence, his bat doesn’t look to play at the major league level and the Orioles should look to upgrade at SS long-term. There is very little chance Andino would be picked off waivers because he is out of options. The dearth of position players at middle infield positions is the only leverage Andino has to remain on the roster.

Lou Montanez

Removal Chance: 10%

Waiver Claim Chance: 70%

Reason: The Orioles have no room on the 25 man roster for Montanez currently but he does have two option years remaining, which will make him look enticing to other teams, as well as the Orioles. He will head back to AAA Norfolk to rehabilitate from his thumb injury to start 2010. His roster spot is only in jeopardy if a spot is desperately needed.

Wilfrido Perez

Removal Chance: 3%

Waiver Claim Chance: 90%

Reason: The Orioles organization is very high on Perez’s ability as a situational lefty, though with surgery to remove bone chips, he will have to reprove himself at Bowie in 2010 to earn a chance to get to the majors. If there is a dire need for a roster spot, he could be removed, but some team will most certainly claim him. The only reason he wouldn’t be claimed is because of his inability to pitch on back-to-back days in his career.

Troy Patton

Removal Chance: 1%

Waiver Claim Chance: 80%

Reason: Patton has hit a major wall at Triple-A Norfolk. With the amount of pitching coming through the system, the Orioles could deem it necessary to bump Patton from the 40 man, but with 2 option years remaining, a team with an open spot could take a flier on him hoping that his peripherals improve. The earliest I see Patton being removed from the 40 man roster is late in the 2010 season.

Felix Pie

Removal Chance: 0%

Waiver Claim Chance: 85%

Reason: Unless Pie is traded, there is no way the Orioles remove him from the 40 man roster. Some team will take a chance on him because of his improved approach at the plate and in the field. If the Orioles truly believe he has everyday potential, they could look to move him so he can attempt to reach his potential with another team. If this is to occur, then Fiorentino might make the best out of that deal as the Orioles could turn the 4th OF spot over to him.

Chris Ray

Removal Chance: 0%

Waiver Claim Chance: 100%

Reason: While he has struggled through injuries the last two years, the Orioles would be hard pressed to remove Ray from the roster. They will give him every chance to show he can’t be an effective major league reliever and with an option remaining they will use it in 2010 if necessary. The earliest he will be off the 40 man roster is following the 2010 season.

Jason Berken

Removal Chance: 0%

Waiver Claim Chance: 70%

Reason: I am only including him because I am sure someone will suggest it. While not looking great at the major league level, he has a strong head on his shoulders and could be a very useful reliever as early as next season. He won’t be a starter at the major league level unless there is an emergency, but the Orioles won’t move him. He would be claimed on waivers, especially with three option years remaining.

Conclusion: The Orioles will finally add 3 positional prospects to the 40 man roster for the first time in years, providing more balance to the roster that is top heavy in pitchers. Almost all of the players that will be removed from the roster will be pitchers, especially of the AAAA variety. The Orioles will keep adding highly touted prospects to the roster and finally have optioned prospects waiting in the minors to fill gaps on the 25 man roster when they arise.

The Orioles will add at least 6 players – Brandon Erbe, Brandon Snyder, Justin Turner, Josh Bell, Steve Johnson, and Josh Perrault. The Orioles will remove at least 6 players – Chris Waters, Bob McCrory, Jim Miller, Rich Hill, Alfredo Simon, and Alberto Castillo. With the four free agents, the Orioles will have at least 4 roster spots available on the 40 man roster. The Orioles will leave one or two roster spots open for possible Rule 5 picks and/or waiver claims. They will also keep in mind that a roster spot will be needed for Jake Arrieta not to long into the season. As of right now, there are no players that will be on the roster that are expected to open on the disabled list.

I will keep this thread updated as developments occur.

[Agent0]

So based on your %ages, what is your 40 man heading into the Rule V? I really don't think Hill gets waived until next spring (unless he's still injured in the fall) and I'd put Sarfate's chances of getting waived at higher than 40%. However, None of it means a whole lot unless we can look at it in the context of what the 40 man should be going forward.

If 6 get added, and Baez, Mora, Waters, Simon, Castillo, and Miller get dropped....then other spots will only be needed on a case by case basis.

[allstar1579]

Awesome work as usual. I had been compiling notes on the same stuff once I realized Snyder, Erbe and a couple others needed to be protected this year.

[PBR Street Gang]

What are the chances of some of these "marginal guys" packaged in trades? I know that is highly hypothetical, but knowing MacPhail he probably will do something along those lines instead just losing them,

Your post shows that this organization finally has some depth to start worrying about Rule 5 and waiver losses.

[tywright]

Ryan Adams might find himself protected this offseason.

[Crazysilver03]

Ryan Adams might find himself protected this offseason.

Why do you believe that?

[tywright]

Why do you believe that?

You never know. And I wouldn't characterize his numbers as being very unimpressive. The guy can definitely hit and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Bowie by the end of the year.

[TakebackOPACY]

Great stuff as usual!

Clarification (nitpicking, sorry): In the first sentence of the second post, you mention that there are 39 men on the 40-man. I would somehow mention Simon right there. I know you clarified it further down.

Clarification/opinion/ I don't know, you decide: The guys you have at 100% chance of removal have an extremely high chance of being removed if/when it becomes necessary. You have six guys with 90%+ chance of removal and six guys with 90%+ chance of being added. Plus you have veteran free agents walking. Some amongst those 90%+ removal guys might stay on through the Rule 5 draft and become the most likely to be removed later when free agents are signed.

Opinion: You're probably right about Steve Johnson, but I don't know if I could put him at 100% yet. Does a team really think they'll put him on their 25-man all year? You probably know better than me, since I haven't kept track of what Rule 5 guys made it all the way through the season (so far) this year or in recent years.

Opinion: Some of those guys, especially those for whom you've given percentages of > 10% and < 90%, really still have the opportunity to solidify their status over the next few weeks. By providing this information to the OH readership, Crazysilver, you're bringing to people's attention some intriguing storylines for the remainder of the season that would otherwise be considered tiny. I'm particularly intrigued to watch the remainder of the season for Liz, Sarfate, Pie, Waters. (Waters is a lefty and his righty/lefty splits used to be rather even. He is now much more effective against lefties, but still walks way too many. Does this make him worth protecting over the second tier of possible additions?) The lives and dreams of these young men will be greatly affected by these decisions.

[Crazysilver03]

So based on your %ages, what is your 40 man heading into the Rule V? I really don't think Hill gets waived until next spring (unless he's still injured in the fall) and I'd put Sarfate's chances of getting waived at higher than 40%. However, None of it means a whole lot unless we can look at it in the context of what the 40 man should be going forward.

If 6 get added, and Baez, Mora, Waters, Simon, Castillo, and Miller get dropped....then other spots will only be needed on a case by case basis.

Baez, Mora, Huff, and Hendrickson all come off naturally because of free agency.

I think Sarfate, Pie, and Bass will be traded away during the winter.

Heading into the Rule 5 draft, I would expect:

Pitchers:

Albers

Bass

Bergesen

Berken

Erbe

Guthrie

Hernandez

Johnson, Jim

Johnson, Steve

Matusz

Meredith

Mickolio

Patton

Perez

Perrault

Ray

Sarfate

Spoone

Uehara

Catchers

Wieters

Zaun

Infielders

Andino

Bell

Izturis

Roberts

Snyder

Turner

Wigginton

Outfielders

Fiorentino

Jones

Markakis

Montanez

Pie

Reimold

Scott

[Anonymous]

Given that Baltimore Sun personnel peruse this web site from time to time, how is it possible that they have not yet picked up Crazysilver to work for them in some capacity on the Orioles beat?

[hoosiers]

Nice job, very thorough.

I also will stick up for Ryan Adams. He is punishing the ball right now.

Not sure of Simon's fate, but the FO liked him well enough. He should be ready to pitch at some point next season.

[Anonymous]

Nice job, very thorough.

I also will stick up for Ryan Adams. He is punishing the ball right now.

Not sure of Simon's fate, but the FO liked him well enough. He should be ready to pitch at some point next season.

It's not always a question of whether a guy deserves better or is liked well enough. If there is indeed 0% chance of a waiver claim, then there is a benefit (and no downside) to carrying the guy in an off-the-40-man capacity. And I don't think there's any material basis to argue with Craysilver's projection of a 0% chance of a waiver claim for both Simon and Adams.

[Crazysilver03]

Opinion: You're probably right about Steve Johnson, but I don't know if I could put him at 100% yet. Does a team really think they'll put him on their 25-man all year? You probably know better than me, since I haven't kept track of what Rule 5 guys made it all the way through the season (so far) this year or in recent years.

Opinion: Some of those guys, especially those for whom you've given percentages of > 10% and < 90%, really still have the opportunity to solidify their status over the next few weeks. By providing this information to the OH readership, Crazysilver, you're bringing to people's attention some intriguing storylines for the remainder of the season that would otherwise be considered tiny. I'm particularly intrigued to watch the remainder of the season for Liz, Sarfate, Pie, Waters. (Waters is a lefty and his righty/lefty splits used to be rather even. He is now much more effective against lefties, but still walks way too many. Does this make him worth protecting over the second tier of possible additions?) The lives and dreams of these young men will be greatly affected by these decisions.

Steve Johnson is now at AA and with a 10K/9IP on the season. He could easily be stored as 12th man in a bullpen and probably be fairly serviceable. Couple that with the fact that the Orioles just traded for him, there is no way they allow a PR nightmare to happen.

You are correct on the assertion that there will be a few storylines played out over the next 8 weeks. The list and percentages are as of right now, so as things change, I will reflect the changes where they need to be made.

Overall, I was gauging who would be removed for Rule 5 purposes, but it also serves the purpose of in general terms, what is the most likely pattern of removal.

[Crazysilver03]

Nice job, very thorough.

I also will stick up for Ryan Adams. He is punishing the ball right now.

Not sure of Simon's fate, but the FO liked him well enough. He should be ready to pitch at some point next season.

I initiated this project last week, so most of the percentages are as of last week, but I have wavered as recently as today. I had a conversation regarding Fiorentino and now I believe the Orioles will protect him, when before I figured they would let him walk. I can re-examine these projections at the end of the season, so if Adams stays on a hot streak, I could see the Orioles protecting him.

Regarding Simon, because of a lack of the DL in the off-season, the Orioles will not use a 40 man roster spot for Simon, just to have him go back on the DL (while earning a major league salary) for 2010 and then ONLY get 6 rehabilitation starts before they would most likely DFA him anyway.