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Adrian Gonzalez - Trade Target in 2010?


wildbillhiccup

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The Pads were rumored to be asking more for AGonz than the Jays were, for Halliday. To get AGonz we are going to have to give up 3 of the 6 yong SP we are counting on to form the heart of our rotation. We won't be able to buy enough pitching to replace them. It makes no sense to give that all up for one player.

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So you're saying that it'll be at least 2014 before the O's compete if any of the young arms falter? That's why it's sometimes hard to take you seriously. It was three years between the Tigers losing 119 games and being in the World Series, yet you think the O's will be much less successful unless they follow your plan of trading the farm for lots and lots of expensive, high-end talent.

If we refuse to buy premium FA arms and premium FA bats all together like we have been doing, and if one of the Big Three falters, and bats like Snyder and Bell go bust, I don't see how we can compete, yes...

The Big Three will have to live up to the hype, ditto for Wieters, Snyder, Bell etc. Otherwise we don't stand a chance against Boston and the NYY IMO.

Don't forget the Tigers bought Magglio, Pudge and brought in Jim Leyland.

Their staff was good, but they got career years out of a 41 year old Kenny Rogers, Nate Robertson and Jeremy Bonderman. I don't look at the Tigers as the model to follow.

The Red Sox should be our model.

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The Pads were rumored to be asking more for AGonz than the Jays were, for Halliday. To get AGonz we are going to have to give up 3 of the 6 yong SP we are counting on to form the heart of our rotation. We won't be able to buy enough pitching to replace them. It makes no sense to give that all up for one player.

I agree it will be costly, but I doubt it would take three of our top pitchers to do so. And we can easily replace one of the Big Three with a FA arm.

Seattle was reportedly close to landing Gonzalez and they don't have near the pitching that we do.

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I agree it will be costly, but I doubt it would take three of our top pitchers to do so. And we can easily replace one of the Big Three with a FA arm.

Seattle was reportedly close to landing Gonzalez and they don't have near the pitching that we do.

You need to continue with this statement....

The Red Sox were going to get King Felix, Seattle was going to get AGon and then both teams were going to send a slew of prospects to SD.

BTW, while I have discussed AGon, at the end of the day, he just isn't the best target for us when you factor in what it will likely to get him.

We need the premium talent but I am ok with getting Hardy, Crede and Kotchman for next year and then re-evaluate what we need.

Now, I do think we should go after Lackey..Maybe Vazquez if Lackey isn't possible.

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You need to continue with this statement....

The Red Sox were going to get King Felix, Seattle was going to get AGon and then both teams were going to send a slew of prospects to SD.

BTW, while I have discussed AGon, at the end of the day, he just isn't the best target for us when you factor in what it will likely to get him.

We need the premium talent but I am ok with getting Hardy, Crede and Kotchman for next year and then re-evaluate what we need.

Now, I do think we should go after Lackey..Maybe Vazquez if Lackey isn't possible.

I agree...Hardy, Crede, and Kotchman would be great pickups IMO. Maybe Beltre if he isn't too expensive *yes I know he's Boras...*. With the maturity of our outfielders/Wieters, I think those additions would be, at the very least, a good evaluating point to see what our biggest need is going into a HUGE free agency the following season. If we can put up a winning season with those pieces AND our maturing young arms, we might be able to convince a premium talent like a Pujols, Berkman, or Halladay to sign with us going forward...and NOT at the expense of our prospects.

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What is the fascination with Kotchman? I just don't get it. There's nothing worse then a light hitting first baseman. The Orioles need a first baseman who can hit hrs/drive in runs. Not a poor man's Nick Johnson/James Loney. If they had a Ryan Braun type in the OF then maybe, but Markakis and Jones aren't really hr hitters.

If it takes our 3 top pitching prospects then of course it's not worth it. We should at least be feeling out the Pads. My guess is as he gets closer to free agency, and their backs are up against the wall a bit more they might lower their asking price. If it takes Tillman or Matsuiz (not both), and we can lock him up long-term, pull the trigger. You've got to give someething to get something.

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I agree it will be costly, but I doubt it would take three of our top pitchers to do so. And we can easily replace one of the Big Three with a FA arm.

Seattle was reportedly close to landing Gonzalez and they don't have near the pitching that we do.

The reported Adrian Gonzalez deal would have cost the Seattle Mariners three pitchers -- 23-year-old Felix Hernandez, 25-year-old Brandon Morrow and 20-year-old Phillippe Aumont -- as well as heralded 19-year-old infield prospect Carlos Triunfel. Despite their young ages, Aumont and Triunfel made Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list before this season.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009591133_mariners_turned_down_three-way.html

Baltimore would have trouble matching that package because Orioles lack a proven commodity such as Hernandez (who is younger than the unproven Jake Arrieta, for example).

In the reported discussions, Hernandez would have gone to Boston, which would have sent prospects to San Diego and Seattle.

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The reported Adrian Gonzalez deal would have cost the Seattle Mariners three pitchers -- 23-year-old Felix Hernandez, 25-year-old Brandon Morrow and 20-year-old Phillippe Aumont -- as well as heralded 19-year-old infield prospect Carlos Triunfel. Despite their young ages, Aumont and Triunfel made Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list before this season.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009591133_mariners_turned_down_three-way.html

Baltimore would have trouble matching that package because Orioles lack a proven commodity such as Hernandez (who is younger than the unproven Jake Arrieta, for example).

This shows that the people who said Arrieta, Reimold, and Synder likely isn't enough, are likely right.

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This shows that the people who said Arrieta, Reimold, and Synder likely isn't enough, are likely right.

That showed me 2 things:

1) Seattle is crazy for not trading FHer for 5 of those guys and in turn, Boston is crazy for being willing to offer that much.

2) AGon's value is much higher than his talent dictates.

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The reported Adrian Gonzalez deal would have cost the Seattle Mariners three pitchers -- 23-year-old Felix Hernandez, 25-year-old Brandon Morrow and 20-year-old Phillippe Aumont -- as well as heralded 19-year-old infield prospect Carlos Triunfel. Despite their young ages, Aumont and Triunfel made Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list before this season.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009591133_mariners_turned_down_three-way.html

Baltimore would have trouble matching that package because Orioles lack a proven commodity such as Hernandez (who is younger than the unproven Jake Arrieta, for example).

In the reported discussions, Hernandez would have gone to Boston, which would have sent prospects to San Diego and Seattle.

From Olney's blog:

1. Heard this: The closest the Padres came to dealing Adrian Gonzalez was to the Seattle Mariners, and not the Boston Red Sox.

Now don't forget Buchholz and Red Sox prospects were coming back to the Mariners in that three way deal. So it didn't take Felix Hernandez, Aumont, Morrow and Triunfel for AGon alone as you are portraying it...

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Too many arms in that equation. SD needs everything, so you can take out an arm from group C and add Snyder and/or Reimold

Tillman, Britton/Erbe, Snyder and Reimold or Scott probably gets the deal done.

I would offer Arrieta, Erbe, Snyder, and Reimold for him if we could lock him up before hand. If not, then just wait until 2011 rolls around and go get a big first baseman. There will be guys and they will only cost us money (Lee and Pena are unrestricted FA's). I see Boston making a run at Pena if he is available.

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What do you think about his talent and how it compares to other 1B?

Pujols and Tex are the only 1B I would take over Gonzalez for the next several years.

Bingo, you aren't going to find his combination of power and defense in his prime.

Tex was a better player, but AGon isn't that far behind and actually is better defensively than Tex is this year.

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That showed me 2 things:

1) Seattle is crazy for not trading FHer for 5 of those guys and in turn, Boston is crazy for being willing to offer that much.

2) AGon's value is much higher than his talent dictates.

Yep and yep. Would also add time under team control to #2.

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From Olney's blog:

Now don't forget Buchholz and Red Sox prospects were coming back to the Mariners in that three way deal. So it didn't take Felix Hernandez, Aumont, Morrow and Triunfel for AGon alone as you are portraying it...

The point is not what the Mariners were giving to the Padres, but what the Padres were getting for AGon.

"And the Padres would get Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont and Carlos Triunfel from Seattle, along with a couple of other top Boston prospects."

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