Adrian Gonzalez - Trade Target in 2010?

[JTrea81]

I would offer Arrieta, Erbe, Snyder, and Reimold for him if we could lock him up before hand. If not, then just wait until 2011 rolls around and go get a big first baseman. There will be guys and they will only cost us money (Lee and Pena are unrestricted FA's). I see Boston making a run at Pena if he is available.

Lee and Pena will both be on the wrong side of 30 and will want a ton of money to play here.

We need a bat that fits our current youth movement and will age along with our players. AGon is a perfect fit w/an extension as he's only a year older than Markakis and has several prime years left IMO...

Boston will go hard after Adrian Gonzalez in FA and will likely land him if they don't trade for him first. No contest there. They love Gonzalez.

[mweb]

Along with Cabrera, I'd take Fielder over AGon as well. Morneau is basically even other than being a year older.

[JTrea81]

The point is not what the Mariners were giving to the Padres, but what the Padres were getting for AGon.

"And the Padres would get Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont and Carlos Triunfel from Seattle, along with a couple of other top Boston prospects."

And we can match that quite easily IMO, and possibly knock off a prospect because of the .5 year that is gone. AGon only has two more years left instead of 2.5 at the deadline.

Tillman, Britton/Erbe, Snyder and Reimold is plenty to land AGon sans extension IMO.

[JTrea81]

I get what you are saying in that as far as the trade value on the surface we are trading for 2 years, but that does not have to be the Orioles goal.

The O's were offering between 150-200 million for Tex. Gonzalez is basically a Tex caliber player. If they offer him 6/120 or 7/140 2 years from free agency, you think he declines it?

Look at the Sox making the Jason Bay trade....Sure they only got him for 1.5 years guaranteed but they know they have the dough to extend him if they really want to. So, that has to be factored in on their side. Same thing when STL made the trades for McGwire and Rolen.

And honestly unless we trade for that bat, we have no chances signing one in FA IMO with Boston and the Yankees both having money coming off the books and looking for upgrades in the next couple of years.

There's just no way those players want to play in Baltimore when NYY and Boston are in play for them as well.

[mweb]

I get what you are saying in that as far as the trade value on the surface we are trading for 2 years, but that does not have to be the Orioles goal.

The O's were offering between 150-200 million for Tex. Gonzalez is basically a Tex caliber player. If they offer him 6/120 or 7/140 2 years from free agency, you think he declines it?

Look at the Sox making the Jason Bay trade....Sure they only got him for 1.5 years guaranteed but they know they have the dough to extend him if they really want to. So, that has to be factored in on their side. Same thing when STL made the trades for McGwire and Rolen.

I don't care that much about what the goal is, the point is what we're trading for, and that is 2 years of his play, which I feel at least one of those years will not result in the playoffs.

There's a decent chance the O's will have the chance to offer him the deal you mention in two years, I'll wait and keep our young core together. If he's not available, there are other guys who will be that I'd go after.

You mention the Sox, but that is a totally different situation, they did that to improve a team that was very likely going to the playoffs. They didn't do it to improve their future, especially the years after his contract is up.

[mweb]

And we can match that quite easily IMO, and possibly knock off a prospect because of the .5 year that is gone. AGon only has two more years left instead of 2.5 at the deadline.

Tillman, Britton/Erbe, Snyder and Reimold is plenty to land AGon sans extension IMO.

Of course we can, but we shouldn't imo.

[JTrea81]

One thing I will say is that the O's lack the "name" type prospect coming back. Regardless of how much better a guy like Buchholz or Phil Hughes is than Arrieta, if any, those guys will still hold the name value going back to that team that they can promote as the #1 piece.

Gomez was that guy for the Twins...Even Adam Jones for the O's. We don't have that type of guy to offer unless it's Wieters, or unless one of our top guys like Matusz or Tillman have a nice 2nd half with some dominant games, alot of times that's all it takes, ala Buchholz.

Chris Tillman is a pretty well known name in baseball now IMO. He may not have the hype of a Red Sox or Yankee pitching prospect, but he's better than anything they have to offer IMO because of his potential and age. You can bet Towers knows this...

[mweb]

And honestly unless we trade for that bat, we have no chances signing one in FA IMO with Boston and the Yankees both having money coming off the books and looking for upgrades in the next couple of years.

There's just no way those players want to play in Baltimore when NYY and Boston are in play for them as well.

Those team have a limited amount of starting spots, they can't sign every guy that the O's would be interested in. It still mostly comes down to money in terms of getting the majority of free agents, so it's possible the O's can outbid one of those teams if AM feels it's a guy who can push the team over the top. Plus, if the young talent develops well, free agents would view the team as a more attractive one. If it doesn't develop, we aren't winning regardless of AGon.

[mweb]

So you don't think that the team's ability to sign a player long-term influences how likely they are to make a trade, or how much they are willing to give up in a trade? I strongly disagree with that.

How about the Angels with Tex? They were 100% set on trying to lock Tex up long-term. Yes, they were trying to win a WS, but they also wanted Tex for their future too. If they would have known that Tex would not really consider signing there, do you think they still make that deal? I question that very much.

And yes, we can offer that deal to him before 2012 but where does that leave us in the meantime? At some point you have to make a move and try to win. There is no set time or proper time for that really, but I don't think doing so before next year is premature at all.

I'm not saying it doesn't influence things, but it shouldn't nearly as much as you are saying, at least not without a negotiating window. Also as I've said, it doesn't make as big a difference for the O's situation, which is a non-contending team who imo, would be better off waiting to sign a big bat to help push the team over the top rather than trading away a large chunk of it's young core before the playoffs are likely.

The Angels said at the time that they were doing that trade to go for it that season, and they'd see what they could do about re-signing him. However, while they wanted to keep Tex beyond that, they were in no way greatly confident of being able to do that, nor was the trade really going to make much of a difference in keeping him long-term. The trade was about the present, not the future, as it should have been since they would have had the shot at Tex in the off-season anyway.

I replied to your last paragraph before, and you didn't respond if I recall correctly. Even with the moves you want, which I support the others, a ton would have to go right to makes the playoffs next year. This is not the time to go all-in. I also think getting two of Johnson, Glaus, Crede, Beltre, Kotchman, or Branyon would provide a similar chance of contending as getting AGon while subtracting who we'd have to trade to get him. The chance would be low regardless imo.

[mweb]

Just to add to this ,MWEB..I am not saying that the Padres should be saying gee, you guys could sign him to an extension so he is worth more than his 2 years left.

But the O's absolutely if they are thinking about this deal, should be 100% set on signing him to an extension. Gonzalez is not turning down a 6/120-7/140 type deal 2 years before free agency. That abillity to sign him should totally be a factor in our decision.

If you are going after him, basically they acquire exclusive rights to negotiate with him, and they have the cash to get him. A bigtime bat is their #1 need going forward. They would be making this deal for the next 6-7 years, not the next 2. Because it is a move they wouldn't even consider if they were only going to have him for 2 years.

Well obviously if the O's trade for him, they should be intent on extending him. However, extending him to a deal that he'll struggle to be worth over the length of the contract, and giving up 3-4 very talented young players isn't appealing to me.

It makes more sense to keep the young guys that would be traded, and then get a big bat in free agency, even though that would require more patience. When I say more patience, I don't mean in terms of the rebuilding process though, as I just said, I think we can win a similar amount of games by going a different route before going for the big bat.

[JTrea81]

Well obviously if the O's trade for him, they should be intent on extending him. However, extending him to a deal that he'll struggle to be worth over the length of the contract, and giving up 3-4 very talented young players isn't appealing to me.

It makes more sense to keep the young guys that would be traded, and then get a big bat in free agency, even though that would require more patience. When I say more patience, I don't mean in terms of the rebuilding process though, as I just said, I think we can win a similar amount of games by going a different route before going for the big bat.

The big bat though, is the draw for both the fans and the players. Players won't take notice if you sign a Russell Braynan IMO. But if you go out and trade prospects for an Adrian Gonzalez, that sends a message to the players and your fanbase that the Orioles are serious about winning IMO. And it also shows other FAs out there that the Orioles are serious about winning games and competing in the division.

That message needs to be sent to both fans and currently players badly. Right now there is an indefinate timetable and it's hurting attendance and player morale and motivation IMO. This franchise needs that jolt that trading for a Gonzalez could provide.

[mweb]

The big bat though, is the draw for both the fans and the players. Players won't take notice if you sign a Russell Braynan IMO. But if you go out and trade prospects for an Adrian Gonzalez, that sends a message to the players and your fanbase that the Orioles are serious about winning IMO. And it also shows other FAs out there that the Orioles are serious about winning games and competing in the division.

That message needs to be sent to both fans and currently players badly. Right now there is an indefinate timetable and it's hurting attendance and player morale and motivation IMO.

I don't care more about sending the right message to people who don't know much, i.e the common fan, than I care about doing what's best for the organization.

If the team went out and signed one of Harden/Lackey/Bedard/Vazquez, plus Nick Johnson, Glaus/Crede/Beltre, and traded for Hardy, I think that message would get out. Not as much as replacing the middle two moves with AGon, but that's a sacrifice I would be willing to make in order to do what's I feel is wise.

[mweb]

BTW, are there any successful examples of what's being proposed here being done by a team like ours?

[mweb]

Sorry I didn't respond. I think that offense is fine for a contending team. Obviously it depends on the pitching...We have some depth there, and all of those pitchers are likely to be better than they are this year, other than BB who should still be a solid mid rotation guy if he falls back some.

The thing where we differ IMO is that I do not think Arrieta, Synder, Reimold, and Ray for Gonzalez is going "all-in" I already laid that out numerous times as to why I picked those guys. Makes sense for the Pads while at the same time I don't think you can look at our team and system and say it is damaged too greatly by making that deal. We aren't talking about tearing apart our system or trading 5 guys like the Mariners did for Bedard or like the Sox offered for Fher.

I'm not sure if you're referring to my team or yours in your first paragraph, but either way, as I've said, I don't think it matters much for next year. The team would be upgraded in a similar way, would need a lot of development from the young players, good health(including from Bedard who is a big risk there), and some help from the big 3 in our division to make the playoffs. So in other words, it would be a long shot imo.

You're the one who said at some point we need to go all-in, so I was just responding to that. I wouldn't go as far as saying that's all-in either. We differ on other things more than this.

The Padres were going to get 5 highly rated guys in that deal, so yes, I think we're talking about something along those lines, as we'd have to add to what you laid out.

So would you being comfortable adding to that package to get him? If so, how much?

[mweb]

What are you alluding to? A bad team trading young players for a bigtime player who they think can be part of their next contending team? Or trading for someone and then signing him before he's a free agent?

The Padres traded for Giles and Kendall when they were bad, if the former is what you were looking for.

The first one. And that trade didn't work out too well for the Padres.