Should Avery and Hoes repeat Delmarva?

[QSII]

Today's fans follow the stat sheets of the minors, but the informed fans read the scouting reports, interviews about, and interviews with the players along with watching the player play to make their judgements.

Most celebrity stalkers don't put in that much time. Give me the bullet point sheet. In my case, my limited opportunities to see these guys skew my observations all out of proportion anyway. I had Paco with one foot in the HOF.

[TheBandit]

Most celebrity stalkers don't put in that much time. Give me the bullet point sheet. In my case, my limited opportunities to see these guys skew my observations all out of proportion anyway. I had Paco with one foot in the HOF.

I look at the stats, then I try and see the player play before I make a "final judgement" on a player. If I run across interviews, I'm reading them if they involve a player I am interested in.

Of course, most people don't have trained eyes to watch for proper mechanics and other little things the scouts pick up. This is why the scouting reports are useful. I'm just saying that since most people can't see all these players on a normal basis or even at all that they jump to conclusions using a simple stat sheet.

If you asked a guy reading a stat sheet about Billy Rowell, he'd ask you why he's still in the organization. OH going into this year still had him listed as a top 10 prospect, but he has not done anything stat wise to warrant that. Would I argue with it? Not totally, but you can raise questions.

Besides, sd is making a judgement based on OPS alone which would be fixed with better patience at the plate and getting a few more walks.

If you look at the two years, he's way below pace on R, 3B, BB, K; he's keeping pace with H, HR, SB; he's above pace with 2B. More doubles shows some developing power. The less walks and more strikeouts is the result of better competition and not making the adjustments. He's 10 hits off his pace from the GCL. If he had them, his average would be .280 instead of .251. This could happen with a little luck. His BABIP is .308 while last year it was .364. He's not having the same luck from last year. He's hitting more balls on the ground this year 62.5% to 59.1% and hitting roughly the same amount of LD 12.8% to 13.6%. Usually, a few more balls on the ground results in a better batting average.

When you actually analyze his STATS, he's not regressing with his hitting. It just seems he's getting unlucky. Again, it would help things if he were walking more.

[TheBandit]

A .308 BABIP isn't unlucky. A .364 one is lucky, however.

BTW, no one would ask why Rowell is still in the organization. He's still very young. I'm not questioning anyone's presence in the organization, just the lack of stats that back up Hoes being more refined then Avery.

Also, he's clearly not keeping pace with last year. His BA is .250 vs .308, his slugging is almost .100 points lower and his BBs aren't even anywhere near in the same ballpark.

Wrong on one account

http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=14&qual=y&type=1&season=2009

A Ball players BABIP

- LJ is in the bottom 30 qualified players (92 total) He's in the bottom 3rd of the league (ranked 66th)

- Greg Miclat has a .281 and Tyler Kolodny has a .280

- The leader has a .409

- Xavier Avery has a .344 and is ranked 30th

- The average is somewhere in the .320-.330 range

- .340 would not be considered very lucky but just above average

Also, you must not understand anything beyond the most basic stats if you keep quoting batting averages to me. That .300 batting average was over 48 games. There's a good chance he never incurred any kind of slump. It's a small sample size at the lowest of levels. The 97 games played at A ball, a full season team and much higher level than Gulf League, is a much bigger sample size where there's a good chance you will go through up and downs.

And when I checked the splits from last year, slow start and then he batted near .400 in July and over .300 in August. I'll go even further, he had a .371 batting average on fly balls. Most people have a low-mid .200 average.

I also said the walks are below their rate from last year. You do realize batting average and slugging percentage are pulling from very similar stats. If one is down, so is the other (usually).

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/

[Three Run Homer]

When you actually analyze his STATS, he's not regressing with his hitting. It just seems he's getting unlucky. Again, it would help things if he were walking more.

Aren't walks a part of hitting?

[TheBandit]

What's your point?

My point is that, at this point, Avery is a better ballplayer than Hoes.

That's all.

My point is that you are using archaic stats to cast final judgements on players. Does "I'm predicting bust and I don't care how premature it is" ring a bell? All this because in his first full season he has an OPS under .600.

Then you quote batting average and slugging percentage which pulls off similar stats to get their numbers plus OPS uses slugging. You've been quoting 3 very similar stats which makes me think you are using tunnel vision and not looking at a wider array of stats.

If you are not going to watch him play, then you should look further into the stat book to cast judgement. I gave you more stats that proved he is not doing anywhere near as bad as you make him out, and you keep brushing them aside and going back to basic stats like batting average.

Oh, and if your point is to prove Avery is better, then I have not seen a comparison between the two. If this was your only point, you wouldn't of called Hoes a bust. I was simply trying to enlighten you that your judgement was too quick and too harsh, but I was not trying to change your mind that Hoes has been disappointing. He's showing growth, but he's not having a good season.

I'll get off your back now since we just keep going in circles anyway. I'll go with the rest of the public and believe Hoes is playing pretty well for a 19 year old in A ball and in his first full season.

Also, I'll listen to the free scouting report from Dr.Shorebird and trust his eyes since he obviously watches these guys intently and can pick up on things they are doing right or wrong.

[TheBandit]

Can you make a list of how many of the current Orioles had a season under a .600 OPS in a full minor league season?

Cesar Izturis:

1997 - 17 yr old - A_ss - .457

1998 - 18 yr old - A - .603 (similar year to Hoes and close enough to .600 to include)

2000 - 20 yr old - AAA - .531

Robert Andino:

2003 - 19 yr old - A - .518

MI prospects hitting under .600 in their teens in A-ball. Hmm. I guess this does happen.

[TheBandit]

Was that supposed to make a case for your argument? :laughlol: Unless Hoes has some potential as a shortstop, I guess we can go ahead and project him as a AAAA 2B at best. :clap3:

Typical MI prospects are light hitting, speed guys who play good defense. In case your unbelievably talented logic (truly, you amaze me with each post) can't understand that 2B's are MI's, I will tell you now: 2B's are MI's.

I'll refrain from my acknowledging your existence since it is obvious you don't understand any information I give you.

[allstar1579]

Gotta be a little concerned about Doc's scouting report on Avery. I think the offense will come around eventually but the defense worries me. I think in most cases judging and reading balls off the bat is an instinctual talent more than a learned one. Not saying he can't improve but I find Doc's opinion worrisome for Avery ever developing into a top flight defender.

Just give him time. He wasn't supposed to be playing this whole year at DMV, so consider it a bonus, and see what improvement he makes next year. He's got years before we should be thinking about him in Bmore.

With Hoes, he had a rough year off the field, which especially as a 19 y/o playing a level over his head has got to be tough. I would personally leave them both in DMV to start the season if I had to make the decision now, but that's what spring training is for, maybe they make some big strides between now and then, it's all about how much work they want to put in in the offseason. They are still way too young to be throwing the "B" word around though, especially if you are just using box scores to do it. (Not saying you were, just responding to the conversation as a whole)

[allstar1579]

Typical MI prospects are light hitting, speed guys who play good defense. In case your unbelievably talented logic (truly, you amaze me with each post) can't understand that 2B's are MI's, I will tell you now: 2B's are MI's.

I'll refrain from my acknowledging your existence since it is obvious you don't understand any information I give you.

I don't know, I think the trend is skewing to where you could add gap-power in there at least. The light hitting-good glove guys seem to be the UTL guys, but if you have just a little pop it carries a lot of weight at MI.

[allstar1579]

2B's in the major leagues have to be better hitter than SS's do. Hence why your usage of Andino and Izturis (two guys who already are pretty much a liability on offense at best) is a laughable one.

Wait...what? 2B don't have to hit a certain amount or hit better than anyone else. If you are referring to the fact that it is hard to find good hitting MIers that is one thing, but there is no requirement for how good of a hitter one is. Maybe you are just getting caught up in the recent trend for good hitting 2B, but teams would like to find good hitting players no matter what position.

[crawdad]

Wait...what? 2B don't have to hit a certain amount or hit better than anyone else. If you are referring to the fact that it is hard to find good hitting MIers that is one thing, but there is no requirement for how good of a hitter one is. Maybe you are just getting caught up in the recent trend for good hitting 2B, but teams would like to find good hitting players no matter what position.

Right, it is a balance question. A player's overall worth comes from his offense and defense. If he is poor defensively at second, then he needs a big bat . . . vice versa. There are no requirements for any position other than overall production.