Jake Arrieta's inconcsitencies....

[QBsILLEST1]

I was just surfing around baseball land on the internet and came accross something pretty interesting.

Its no secret that Jake Arrieta has been very inconsistent lately with his pitching performances. Finally, I may have figured out where its coming from. I was looking at the Pitch FX data submitted from his last start at the Fenway Futures game. A couple of things that stood out were his fastball looked pretty flat. That is not a problem for mant power pitchers, a lot of their fastballs are flat, but not Jake. Jake supposedly has tremendous boring action on his fastball. Strange....Well as I read further down the Pitch FX data, I came across his release points for his 3 various pitches thrown in the game, fastball, slider and change up.

Well, 1st off, as mentioned at projectprospect, for a guy who is listed a 6'4, its strange that his release points are no higher than the 6 foot range. Maybe is a functional error of where the Pitch FX picks up the ball, maybe he throws from a lower point than I thought, who knows, but thats not my concern as much as how inconsistent his release point is. For both the fastball and slider, his release point varies about a foot, some released at 6 feet, some released at 5 feet. The change up was still inconsistent, but in between a 6 inch range. This IMO is the culprit of the flat fastball and inconsistent performances. Id really love to be able to get my hands on a Pitch FX from one of his starts earlier this year when he was dominating. IMO this could mean a few things. It could mean his release point has always been inconsistent. It could mean that he is getting tired and unable to maintain the same release point. It could also mean that he is playing with his mechanics mid game. I really do not know, but what I do know is that the fastball should have the same release point each time to get optimal movement and consistency. And both other pitches should also be released from the same point, so the pitcxh being thrown isnt given away. So what do you guys think? Anyone know where we can find a pitch FX sheet from some games earlier this season at Bowie?

Here is the link to the Pitch FX data, I hope this isnt against board policy, I dont know how to move the data itself onto here seperately....

http://projectprospect.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5534&p=74507#p74507

[TheOtherRipken]

I was just surfing around baseball land on the internet and came accross something pretty interesting.

Its no secret that Jake Arrieta has been very inconsistent lately with his pitching performances. Finally, I may have figured out where its coming from. I was looking at the Pitch FX data submitted from his last start at the Fenway Futures game. A couple of things that stood out were his fastball looked pretty flat. That is not a problem for mant power pitchers, a lot of their fastballs are flat, but not Jake. Jake supposedly has tremendous boring action on his fastball. Strange....Well as I read further down the Pitch FX data, I came across his release points for his 3 various pitches thrown in the game, fastball, slider and change up.

Well, 1st off, as mentioned at projectprospect, for a guy who is listed a 6'4, its strange that his release points are no higher than the 6 foot range. Maybe is a functional error of where the Pitch FX picks up the ball, maybe he throws from a lower point than I thought, who knows, but thats not my concern as much as how inconsistent his release point is. For both the fastball and slider, his release point varies about a foot, some released at 6 feet, some released at 5 feet. The change up was still inconsistent, but in between a 6 inch range. This IMO is the culprit of the flat fastball and inconsistent performances. Id really love to be able to get my hands on a Pitch FX from one of his starts earlier this year when he was dominating. IMO this could mean a few things. It could mean his release point has always been inconsistent. It could mean that he is getting tired and unable to maintain the same release point. It could also mean that he is playing with his mechanics mid game. I really do not know, but what I do know is that the fastball should have the same release point each time to get optimal movement and consistency. And both other pitches should also be released from the same point, so the pitcxh being thrown isnt given away. So what do you guys think? Anyone know where we can find a pitch FX sheet from some games earlier this season at Bowie?

Here is the link to the Pitch FX data, I hope this isnt against board policy, I dont know how to move the data itself onto here seperately....

http://projectprospect.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=5534&p=74507#p74507

Jake's struggling for a few simple reasons: 1) he is learning in AAA he can't rely on his fastball anymore 2) he is trying to develop his secondary stuff a lot more which sometimes statistically gets him in trouble but is important for his development, this also sends his mechanics a bit out of whack at times as he really is used to relying on his fastball, which is too predictable at AAA, and 3) his confidence isn't quite where it needs to be yet.

I truly believe all these things are going to work themselves out. Don't worry about Jake.

[Say O!]

Quick thought on Jake could be that he's more of a "drop and drive" guy than a "tall and fall" like Tillman (other link in article has Tillman at a 7ft release pt).

[QBsILLEST1]

Jake's struggling for a few simple reasons: 1) he is learning in AAA he can't rely on his fastball anymore 2) he is trying to develop his secondary stuff a lot more which sometimes statistically gets him in trouble but is important for his development, this also sends his mechanics a bit out of whack at times as he really is used to relying on his fastball, which is too predictable at AAA, and 3) his confidence isn't quite where it needs to be yet.

I truly believe all these things are going to work themselves out. Don't worry about Jake.

In AAA its not much different than AA, the way you make it seem is like hes jumping to the ML. A well placed 97 MPH fastball is gonna get the MiLB hitters out, AAA included. His slider is an above average-plus pitch. How do you figure his confidence is off? If his cofnidence is down then his intangibles arent what they were made up to be IMO. Him working on his secondaries is a pretty good theory though as to why his release point would be off though....

[TheOtherRipken]

In AAA its not much different than AA, the way you make it seem is like hes jumping to the ML. A well placed 97 MPH fastball is gonna get the MiLB hitters out, AAA included. His slider is an above average-plus pitch. How do you figure his confidence is off? If his cofnidence is down then his intangibles arent what they were made up to be IMO. Him working on his secondaries is a pretty good theory though as to why his release point would be off though....

I think confidence can very clearly affect release point. By confidence I of course am not referring to overall confidence, but rather confidence in some of his pitches. That mental aspect can affect release point a bit, and like I said it does have to do with working with a different way to pitch.

A well placed 97 mph fastball will probably get AAA hitters out, you are right, but not when those fastballs are predictable. I think Arrieta's big hurdle in AAA is erasing all of his predictability, and if he can do that and improve his command a bit, I really think the skies the limit. He's been my favorite of the big three for quite some time (although Matusz has been challenging his throne for much of this year).

[TheBandit]

Every pitching coach will tell you that you have to rely on your fastball to get hitters out. It sets up all your other pitches and keeps your pitch count down when you locate it for strikes.

Chalk it up to fatigue. Hitters are more patient with a bunch of them MLB caliber waiting for an injury. The guys who are control freaks have no problem with AAA, but Arrieta is not and is probably working on consistently attacking the hitters. Basically, he's working a lot harder. Shut him down at the end of the month and get him ready for his mid-season call-up next year.

[GoldGlove21]

I do not have the time to do this, but I was wondering what Arrieta's minor league numbers are through the first 4 innings of the game compared to his numbers after the 4th. I still think he ends up as a closer or setup man, which wouldn't be a bad thing.

[birdman57]

Every pitching coach will tell you that you have to rely on your fastball to get hitters out. It sets up all your other pitches and keeps your pitch count down when you locate it for strikes.

Chalk it up to fatigue. Hitters are more patient with a bunch of them MLB caliber waiting for an injury. The guys who are control freaks have no problem with AAA, but Arrieta is not and is probably working on consistently attacking the hitters. Basically, he's working a lot harder. Shut him down at the end of the month and get him ready for his mid-season call-up next year.

Yes I tend to agree with you. I think fatigue could be an issue for Matusz as well at this point. Tillman?? Not sure but I would certainly watch him closely in his next few starts. Off the topic, we have some great young talent arriving and personally I would love to see Ray Miller come back and tutor these guys. Just my two cents:)

[QSII]

Needs work, but rose a level or two and still has a healthy arm. That's a successful season. Whatever he's missing, they're working on it. I'd guess(hope) his results in AAA next year will improve. He'll probably be up in April 2011 at the latest, which would be fine progression.

If two of the big three are successful MLB pitchers in 2010, that's a heck of a haul. Throw in improved Hernandez and Bergesen, and just about everybody in baseball would trade rotations with us. Cavalry indeed.

[IceColdIceeIce]

What if Jake only made it is a dominant closer? Would that be so bad?

I know the guy is fearless from the mound and long run that kind of starter is needed, but if he ends up being our Paplebon, that could be sweet, too.

[Tony-OH]

Papelbon meet Arrieta, Arrieta meet Papelbon.

[freethebirds]

Papelbon meet Arrieta, Arrieta meet Papelbon.

Is this really a good comp or are you just saying this in high hopes? I'm asking because I'm not sure

[Mackus]

What if Jake only made it is a dominant closer? Would that be so bad?

I know the guy is fearless from the mound and long run that kind of starter is needed, but if he ends up being our Paplebon, that could be sweet, too.

One of Hernandez, Arrieta, or Erbe are going to end up being our closer, and all 3 have great chances of being very good ones.

If Hernandez sticks in the rotation, and I think he's got a great chance of doing that, then Arrieta breaking in next year in the bullpen is a very realistic possibility.

A decent SP is of more value than all but the most elite of closers in general, but if we already have 4-5 very good starters, then a shut down closer would probably be more valuable to us.

[QSII]

I'm hoping it's a moot point by now, but I've always been nervous about Hernandez as a closer. He's got the stuff, without question. He's always seemed to take an inning or two to shake the spiders out of his uniform, before he starts burying the other team. That's a better starter profile. That, and a few other things. Like he looks like he could and would throw 200 pitches to win if he had to. He's always struck me that way on the mound.

And it's why the announcers are always screaming about getting to the other team's ace while before their guy settles in. "Gotta get him while we can, before he settles into a groove!" "You're absolutely right Gary. Gotta get him while we can, before he settles into a groove!"

[ChaosLex]

Dumb question but how would becoming a closer *improve* Arrieta's chances at the ML level. I've always been curious about that.