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The Nationals should do business like the Orioles


GoldGlove21

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The Washington Nationals are not a good baseball team. They have some young players on the way, but they also have a lot of holes to fill. Strasburg may be an uber prospect, but there is no way I give that kid $18-$22 Million if I am the Nationals and I wouldn't give him that kind of money if I were the Orioles; I will explain why.

We can talk all day about pleasing a fan base, but the ultimate pleasing of the masses only comes from winning. While an argument can be made that Strasburg is the real deal, an argument can also be made that Bryce Harper is the real deal, that a 1st round compensation could be received, and that the major dollars that Strasburg would command could be spent on multiple high upside international signings and next years draft.

The Nationals may be able to make a $5.5 Million offer to Sano, sign Bryce Harper, and sign their second first round pick for less than what it may take to land Strasburg. The money saved could lead to signing a few players drafted above slot. Baseball in drafting terms is a numbers game. Get as much talent into the system as possible and hope that attrition leaves you something to work with. While the Nationals do not have the depth of starters we do at the minor league level they do have some guys.

Now I will say that if Strasburg is going to sign and be a starter next year, then he is likely a better option at $20 Million over 4-6 years than the group of free agent pitchers that the Nationals could possibly sign. If I were the Nationals I would put an offer that I was comfortable with on the table and say take it or leave it. I think $14 Million is more than fair and it would dwarf the record bonus given to Tex. Let a high school kid walk away from that type of money and a chance to play in the majors within a year. If the Nationals do sign Strasburg they have to leave themselves the money to land Harper. $30 Million for two prospects is just crazy money. That is an aweful lot of international talent and overslot money. They could really do a number with their minor league system with that kind of money. I would be happier with 5 guys like Sano and Mateo along with one of Harper or Strasburg. I think there are just smarter ways to spend that kind of money. Too much risk associated with spending that kind of dough on two minor league players, even if they are two of the highest rated prospects ever. Wieters got $6 Million, is Harper or Strasburg going to be twice or three times as good as Matt?

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They can't because they will lose a lot of money and no FA will want to be associated with the franchise.

If they did go for that approach luckily for them free agents not wanting to be associated with the franchise would in no way preclude them from building towards a consistent winner.

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The Washington Nationals are not a good baseball team. They have some young players on the way, but they also have a lot of holes to fill. Strasburg may be an uber prospect, but there is no way I give that kid $18-$22 Million if I am the Nationals and I wouldn't give him that kind of money if I were the Orioles; I will explain why.

We can talk all day about pleasing a fan base, but the ultimate pleasing of the masses only comes from winning. While an argument can be made that Strasburg is the real deal, an argument can also be made that Bryce Harper is the real deal, that a 1st round compensation could be received, and that the major dollars that Strasburg would command could be spent on multiple high upside international signings and next years draft.

The Nationals may be able to make a $5.5 Million offer to Sano, sign Bryce Harper, and sign their second first round pick for less than what it may take to land Strasburg. The money saved could lead to signing a few players drafted above slot. Baseball in drafting terms is a numbers game. Get as much talent into the system as possible and hope that attrition leaves you something to work with. While the Nationals do not have the depth of starters we do at the minor league level they do have some guys.

Now I will say that if Strasburg is going to sign and be a starter next year, then he is likely a better option at $20 Million over 4-6 years than the group of free agent pitchers that the Nationals could possibly sign. If I were the Nationals I would put an offer that I was comfortable with on the table and say take it or leave it. I think $14 Million is more than fair and it would dwarf the record bonus given to Tex. Let a high school kid walk away from that type of money and a chance to play in the majors within a year. If the Nationals do sign Strasburg they have to leave themselves the money to land Harper. $30 Million for two prospects is just crazy money. That is an aweful lot of international talent and overslot money. They could really do a number with their minor league system with that kind of money. I would be happier with 5 guys like Sano and Mateo along with one of Harper or Strasburg. I think there are just smarter ways to spend that kind of money. Too much risk associated with spending that kind of dough on two minor league players, even if they are two of the highest rated prospects ever. Wieters got $6 Million, is Harper or Strasburg going to be twice or three times as good as Matt?

Keep in mind that this year, the Nats have some leverage knowing that they will get an extra pick next year if they can't sign Strasburg this year. But next year, they won't have the same leverage with that pick. Because of that lack of leverage (and perhaps because they knew what they were getting into with Strasburg), they went with Storen with the pick they got in compensation for not signing Crow last year. Storen signed for below slot in what seems to have been a prearranged deal.

With the Strasburg compensation pick, they would probably have to make a signability pick. Signing two picks in the top 3 or so in the draft would be more difficult than signing the #1 and the #10.

I think you are stupid.

I'm not going to neg rep you because it looks like that's already been done. But come on. You don't come here to be talked to that way. Neither does anyone else. Discuss the post.

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If you are not signing FA, and you are not signing your top draft picks, then it's pretty hard to build a winner considering you won't have much talent.

I'm all for signing top draft picks and overslot guys etc... But I will admit that I am against paying a 300%, 400% or even 500% premium for a particular pick when it is unnecessary to do so.

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$20 Million is a huge bargain for a premium talent like Strasburg. Aces don't go on the FA market often and when they do they are overpaid. Getting one for 6 years and only 20-30 Million is a huge bargain.

Like Luke Hochevar, Bryan Bullington, Matt Anderson, Kris Benson, Paul Wilson, Brien Taylor and Ben McDonald?

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$20 Million is a huge bargain for a premium talent like Strasburg. Aces don't go on the FA market often and when they do they are overpaid. Getting one for 6 years and only 20-30 Million is a huge bargain.

My question would be why would you pay $20m when you could end up signing him for a fraction of that?

It's the same thing as when Wieters was coming down to the deadline. People were panicing and saying the O's should give him Teix money, etc... There is no reason to throw money away unnecessarily. Those who were for meeting Boras' demands in essence were in favor of throwing money away. The same phenomenon is in place here with those who think the Nats should give Strasburg 20m.

I seriously doubt this is what you meant, but if a team was convinced Strassburg was ready to start 2010 in the majors a 6 years $20m contract would not be a terrible investment but you aren't getting arbitration years and maybe a free agency year in exchange for that $20m.

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And none of those guys had Strasburg's talent. Go watch Hochevar pitch, he is nowhere the talent that Strasburg. He has better stuff than all of them but more importantly has better stuff and command than those guys.

Why not list expensive pitchers like Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, etc. Those guys have a high rate of success.

I was listing first-overall picks like Strasburg, all of whom were considered top talents. McDonald for SURE was supposed to be the best college pitcher ever when he came out, so to say that he didn't have the same "talent" is simply wrong.

You have no clue what the talent level of any of them is compared to Strasburg. You have no clue what the talent level of the guys you mentioned is compared to Strasburg.

If you want to attack the Nationals in advance for not signing him, that's fine. But you have not shown anything that says you have real evidence to back up any of your statements.

He is no ace, anymore than Tillman is our ace or Porcello is the Tigers' ace or Tommy Hanson is the Braves ace. When he pitches professionally, whether in the minors or in the Nationals' rotation, then you can make a judgment on that.

Were you one of the people believing Matt Wieters would come up and dominate the major leagues? I mean, he is a transcendent talent who destroyed high levels of the minors like few in the past many decades. He did it at much higher levels than Strasburg.

So, do you have any evidence to back up your statements that go beyond, for example, the same "Greatest Prospect EVAR!!!1" given to McDonald?

And all of that without having to call you stupid :rolleyes:

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The value in prospects is tied to the minimal (in most cases) risk-reward. Why give Harper $70-$100 Million when that money can go to a talent like Lackey or Bay? It could also go towards signing 15 international prospects at $6 Million each!!! That is Matt Wieters, Tyler Matzek, Sano, Mateo, Prior, Strasburg, and Tex money. This is why major league baseball needs to implement a better slotting system. Harper by the way, is not more hyped than Josh Hamilton would have been in this era.

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Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, and Rick Porcello were also can't miss pitchers and they have been fine.

It's not like Ben McDonald had a terrible career. He had a decent career.

Porcello's done nothing yet. Kris Benson was better as a rookie in every meaningful stat.

And you point out three. I point out seven simply from #1 overall picks.

From top five picks...

2007

David Price - Jury still out

Daniel Moskos - Struggling in AA

2006

Hochever

Greg Reynolds - Jury still out

Brad Lincoln - Jury still out

2004

Verlander

Phillip Humber - Bad reliever

Jeff Niemann - Quality starter

2003

Kyle Sleeth - Struggling in AA

Tim Stauffer - Jury still out

2002

Bullington

Chris Gruler - Out of organized baseball

Adam Loewen - Minor-league first baseman

Clint Everts - Potential reliever, minors

2001

Mark Prior - Ace, injuredOut of organized baseball

Dewan Brazelton - Out of organized baseball

Gavin Floyd - Quality starter

2000

Adam Johnson - Out of organized baseball

Mike Stodolka - Moved to field, out of organized baseball

Justin Wayne - Out of organized baseball

1999

Beckett

1998

Mark Mulder - Ace, injured, out of organized baseball

Jeff Austin - Out of organized baseball

So over a ten-year period, 23 pitchers in the first five picks. I count two aces, two aces who got hurt, two quality starters and four "jury-still-outs". ten of 23 is a less-than 40 percent chance of getting anything out of the "can't-miss ace" you draft, and a NINE percent chance of getting that true long-term ace. And Verlander could easily still end up as Mark Mulder if he gets hurt.

So, is a 60% chance of nothing and 9% chance of ace-worthy performance worth ace money?

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