Mora deal to be announced Friday...

[Frobby]

From Melvin's PECOTA card:

Year 	      PA 	R 	2B 	3B 	HR 	RBI 	BB 	SO 	SB 	CS 	SPD 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	MLVr 	AVG 	OBP 	SLG 	EqA 	VORP 	Defense 	WARP2006 (age 34) 	613 	87 	30 	2 	23 	87 	58 	101 	7 	3 	4.8 	.284 	.360 	.475 	.123 	.289 	.371 	.498 	.297 	37.8 	143-3B -6 	4.82007 (age 35) 	538 	70 	26 	2 	20 	75 	50 	89 	6 	3 	4.7 	.279 	.353 	.468 	.099 	.284 	.364 	.490 	.292 	29.4 	127-3B -6 	3.82008 (age 36) 	498 	61 	23 	1 	18 	68 	47 	83 	6 	2 	4.7 	.271 	.347 	.452 	.064 	.276 	.358 	.474 	.287 	20.1 	117-3B -7 	2.82009 (age 37) 	464 	55 	22 	1 	17 	65 	43 	80 	5 	2 	4.5 	.271 	.346 	.453 	.062 	.276 	.357 	.474 	.286 	14.9 	110-3B -4 	2.22010 (age 38) 	-- out of baseball --ValuationYear 	OWARP 	DWARP 	Tot WARP 	MORP 	Mean VORP 	Upside2006 	3.3 	1.5 	4.8 	$7,675,000 	37.8 	41.12007 	2.6 	1.2 	3.8 	$5,550,000 	29.4 	33.02008 	1.8 	0.9 	2.8 	$3,625,000 	20.1 	22.12009 	1.4 	0.9 	2.2 	$2,850,000 	14.9 	16.42010 	0.7 	0.2 	0.9 	$1,175,000 	7.9 	8.4Peak 	14.5 	$18,050,000 	110.0 	121.1

They think he'll be worth about $3M a year the last two years of the deal (not counting the option year). About $11.5M over 07-09, while the O's are paying him a little over $8M per year. So to get a good guy to stick around here for his age 35-37 seasons they're overpaying by about a factor of two.

I like Mora a lot, but not sure that's enough to pay a .790 OPS/$3M player $8+M a year.

What is their methodology for converting production into a dollar value?

[tennOsfan]

I'm glad this deal is complete. I wholeheartedly think it's a good deal on both sides. I do not think traditional statistical analysis necessarily applies to Melvin. Melvin's career has defied stereotypes -- in his late 20s he was nothing more than a utility player, and when he hit his early 30s he became a two-time All-Star. I think that Melvin's mid 30s and late 30s could also defy traditional results.

Fact is, if Melvin continues to play at the top of his game, the per year dollars are a bargain. And it sends a message to MLB players that the Orioles will take care of their own, which is a very important message to send.

[keysersose]

And it sends a message to MLB players that the Orioles will take care of their own, which is a very important message to send.

I don't think that's true. MM took less money then he orginally asked for. Angelos lawyered him down. He basically paid angelos $3 million for a no trade clause, starting next year. He can still traded this year.

He wanted 9 mil per season. He got 3 @ 8, plus a 1 mil buyout on the option. NO WAY does he ever get the 10 million club option.

I think other players look at BJ Ryan to see if the O's take care of their own. And I think that high draft choices look at BJ Ryan and see if they want to sign here.

[billyc123]

1. Mora has been underpaid for the last three years. He's a $4million a year All-Star. So one way to look at potentially overpaying him for the last two years of the extension is that he's actually earned it. This is the FO doing right by a player, which should, in theory, make this a more attractive place for potential FAs to come/younger players want to stay.

2. Mora can play multiple positions, so even if he can't be an every day player in two years (& there haven't been any indications that he can't yet) he can spell our regulars in many different spots. (I bet he could even play first!)

3. He is a good guy who wanted to stay in Baltimore. He's a fan favorite. I can't see how the $$ in this contract will cripple us in two years.

4. Provided that his skills don't deteriorate, there is a nice nucleus of position players. What we need find out this season is whether or not Penn & Loewen can pitch in the bigs...

[PaulFolk]

The same LA Dodger fan I talk to (he's fairly knowledgeable about baseball) said "I don't know what to make of Melvin Mora. He has taken an extremely rare career path. He could be fine for 3 years or could tank after the all star break. Hard to tell."

That is knowledgeable! "He'll either be good, or he'll be bad." Your friend's really going out on a limb there.

[FellsPointOsFan]

The Orioles will hold a press conference today at 2 p.m. on the 7th floor of the Camden Yards Warehouse to announce that they have signed All-Star 3B MELVIN MORA to a three-year contract extension through the 2009 season. The contract includes an option for the 2010 season.

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060519&content_id=1461204&vkey=news_bal&fext=.jsp&c_id=bal

[Frobby]

They think he'll be worth about $3M a year the last two years of the deal (not counting the option year). About $11.5M over 07-09, while the O's are paying him a little over $8M per year. So to get a good guy to stick around here for his age 35-37 seasons they're overpaying by about a factor of two.

I like Mora a lot, but not sure that's enough to pay a .790 OPS/$3M player $8+M a year.

Well, for the last couple of years we've been paying a $10 mm/yr player about $3.5 mm a year, so we'll be even. Actually, if you look at the whole 6 years, $35.5 mm for 6 years of Melvin is pretty darned good.

Yes I know that his past undercompensation is irrelevant to future business decisions, but in the real world overall fairness counts for a lot.

Anyway, right now Melvin is doing well viz. his 2006 PECOTA projection, and hopefully he can outperform what PECOTA says.

[AZRon]

From Melvin's PECOTA card:

......They think he'll be worth about $3M a year the last two years of the deal (not counting the option year). About $11.5M over 07-09, while the O's are paying him a little over $8M per year. So to get a good guy to stick around here for his age 35-37 seasons they're overpaying by about a factor of two.

I like Mora a lot, but not sure that's enough to pay a .790 OPS/$3M player $8+M a year.

Are PECOTA projections ever wrong by a factor of 2?

What is the average margin of error for PECOTA projections?

What was the PECOTA projection for Albert Belle at the end of the 1999 season?

Stats are great for a dispassionate analysis of historical and current performance and they certainly, on average, have some predictive value as to future performance

However, baseball is a team game played on a field by human beings for the entertainment and enjoyment of human fans

I assume that most of those human fans would prefer that “their” team be competitive, but there are other important components in nurturing fan interest and loyalty

You can certainly construct a fantasy team, as the Yankees attempt to do, but the Orioles have, apparently, chosen a different route

Competitive teams have a synergy and play with passion, and they frequently achieve results well beyond the sum of their projected individual statistics

I know of no accurate statistical measurement of synergy and passion

The Orioles have repeatedly stated that they “want players who want to play here”. The extension of Mora would confirm to me that they are willing to act to support those statements

Amid all the dollars and performance statistics, it would be uplifting to see some “heart” and passion in the administration of the Orioles

This action may be a disappointment and a concern for those who build their teams exclusively with information from the back of bubble gum cards, but, I for one, applaud this victory for the long-suffering Oriole fan

[Sports Guy]

This is just an assumption, but I get the feeling that if you used this PECOTA projections that you'd never be able to sign anyone.

Actually, what Drungo is really using is his MORP, not PECOTA ranking, although i am sure MORP has something to do with PECOTA.

[Mackus]

The word we got from Flanny is that they expect Mora to be worth about $6M a year over the course of this contract, maybe only $5M the last year (and option year).

He said they realize they're overpaying, but its something they have to do given Mora's history with the team and the fact that there is absolutely nothing behind him in the minors.

[Sports Guy]

Ok, well whatever it is they use to say how much you should pay guys.

Ok..That is MORP(you know, the guy the alien Robin Williams played. )

[The Goob]

Ok so now that the deal is done can anyone who was at the dinner with Flanny tell us why you were sworn to secrecacy about the Mora contract? What was the hold up?

[byrdz]

MORP, PECOTA and whatever statistical prediction tools are great but did they predict that Mora would have the career he's had to this point?? Especially when he was a utility player? I'm quite sure they didn't. He's an exception to the rule and everyone should be able to see that.

Do I expect some decline? Do I expect to see him on the DL from time to time? Of course, but Mora is in great shape and takes great pride in his abilities and I have no doubt he will do what it takes to keep his numbers good enough to help the team.

Good signing and go O's!

[thrifty]

The word we got from Flanny is that they expect Mora to be worth about $6M a year over the course of this contract, maybe only $5M the last year (and option year).

He said they realize they're overpaying, but its something they have to do given Mora's history with the team and the fact that there is absolutely nothing behind him in the minors.

This is the most absurd thing I have ever heard. I am beginning to think that Flanny has no idea what he is doing. There is no way that Mora is worth only $6 milllion a year. Doesn't he realize that contracts have been rising significantly over the past several years and will continue to do so. Watch this market of pitchers in the offseason. Barry Zito will get near $15 million per from a NY team -- book it. The O's are so bad at judging the market, it is crazy. If we take that mentality to the free agent market, we will never get players to sign here. That same thinking about market value is why we were floored by BJ Ryan's deal. We should not have been floored. While it was definitely high, we should have anticipated the increase in salaries in a thin market when revenues went up. Can't they do math? The Mora deal is a good one for the O's money wise (just like Gibbons's deal). They did not overpay. The NTC is a bad idea though.

Let's put it this way, Cal Ripken's last contract paid him about $6 million a year. Cal retired a number of years ago. Do the Orioles think that they can get a third baseman of Mora's caliber in 2008 for the going rate of 2000? No wonder agents don't want to deal with them.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there a chance Melvin exceeds his PECOTA/MORP projections over the life of this deal? Sure. He's had a strange career path to this point, so he could do better than the projections.

Like SportGuy says, no one dislikes Melvin Mora. If you're going to overpay for someone, make it a guy like him.

I just don't think, from a on-field performance perspective, that you build for the future by overpaying for guys in their mid- to late-30s. For every Carlton Fisk or Hank Aaron who excelled in that age range, there are hundreds of players who fell off a cliff. We can hope Mora is a 5-win, $6M player at 37. But we need to realize there's every chance he'll be Brady Anderson, who went from a 7-8 win player near the top of his game at 35 to abysmal at 37. Or Robin Ventura: .800 OPS at 34, out of the league at 37. Or Matt Williams: 35 homers at 33, about that many the rest of his career. Jeff Cirillo peaked a little late, in his late 20s/early 30s, but after the age of 31 his OPS was in the .500s. Even a HOFer like Wade Boggs only had two good years from age 34 on.

Look, this probably isn't going to be a disaster of a contract. Melvin is the kind of guy who'll probably do everything in his power to stay in shape and keep himself ready to play. But often that's just not enough for a 37-year-old.