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This is the most absurd thing I have ever heard. I am beginning to think that Flanny has no idea what he is doing. There is no way that Mora is worth only $6 milllion a year. Doesn't he realize that contracts have been rising significantly over the past several years and will continue to do so. Watch this market of pitchers in the offseason. Barry Zito will get near $15 million per from a NY team -- book it. The O's are so bad at judging the market, it is crazy. If we take that mentality to the free agent market, we will never get players to sign here. That same thinking about market value is why we were floored by BJ Ryan's deal. We should not have been floored. While it was definitely high, we should have anticipated the increase in salaries in a thin market when revenues went up. Can't they do math? The Mora deal is a good one for the O's money wise (just like Gibbons's deal). They did not overpay. The NTC is a bad idea though.

Let's put it this way, Cal Ripken's last contract paid him about $6 million a year. Cal retired a number of years ago. Do the Orioles think that they can get a third baseman of Mora's caliber in 2008 for the going rate of 2000? No wonder agents don't want to deal with them.

You're telling me that it's going to be impossible to find a mid- to high-700s OPS third baseman with average defense for $6M in 2008?

I think it's almost trivial to find such a player. Ever heard of Joe Randa? That describes him to a tee, and he's available every year for $3M. There are lots of Joe Randas.

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You're telling me that it's going to be impossible to find a mid- to high-700s OPS third baseman with average defense for $6M in 2008?

I think it's almost trivial to find such a player. Ever heard of Joe Randa? That describes him to a tee, and he's available every year for $3M. There are lots of Joe Randas.

Mora is not average defensively. He is very above average. He is the best bunter in baseball, period. He is well above average offensively. He is better than Joe Randa and Mora would get $8 million per on the open market in a short deal.

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The O's are so bad at judging the market, it is crazy. If we take that mentality to the free agent market, we will never get players to sign here. That same thinking about market value is why we were floored by BJ Ryan's deal. We should not have been floored. While it was definitely high, we should have anticipated the increase in salaries in a thin market when revenues went up. Can't they do math?

Did even one person outside of the Toronto front office do the Ryan math even remotely the same way?

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Are PECOTA projections ever wrong by a factor of 2?
Certainly, PECOTA projections can be way off. But if they are way off, they are more likely to be way off in terms of being overly optimistic. For example, PECOTA does not do well in projecting season ending injuries. And season ending injuries are more likely to occur in older players.
MORP, PECOTA and whatever statistical prediction tools are great but did they predict that Mora would have the career he's had to this point?? Especially when he was a utility player? I'm quite sure they didn't. He's an exception to the rule and everyone should be able to see that.
PECOTA and MORP may have not projected Mora's breakout year, but they do take into account in his history now in determining his present value. They are the best tools we have at projecting Mora's future performance, and they have been proven quite accurate. Don't jump down Drungo's throat here, he is just telling it like it is. Mora's a great player, a good guy, but he is likely to be overpaid versus his performance during this contract. He in fact may overperform his contract, but the historical data suggests otherwise.
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I for one am not trying to jump down anyone's throat. I just don't recall anyone using MORP or PECOTA or whatever, to say that any of the FA deals or extensions that have been done recently fall within their paramaters of a good deal. I'd be interested to know which FA deals that were done this past season are considered good deals by MORP standards.

MORP is a very new stat(like within the last 6-9 months)

I think you will start seeing that used alot from now.

I know the guy that runs that mlbtraderumors.com site uses it alot.

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You're telling me that it's going to be impossible to find a mid- to high-700s OPS third baseman with average defense for $6M in 2008?

I think it's almost trivial to find such a player. Ever heard of Joe Randa? That describes him to a tee, and he's available every year for $3M. There are lots of Joe Randas.

Mora is better than Randa. But I agree we are probably overpaying for Melvin. That's OK. He was underpaid the last 3 years, he's a true blue Oriole, and as so many have said, if we have to overpay someone, let it be Melvin. It's better than losing him and then paying market price for a more mediocre aternative.

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Description of MORP here.

Well I'm still not sure I understand what they are doing. You somehow have to account for the fact that some of the most valuable players aren't arbitration-eligible or eligible for free agency, which distorts the market. Because of this, I would expect that on average, the entire group of players who are eligible for free agency are overpaid compared to the entire pool of talent.

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My question is:

Does he:

a.) breath a sigh of relief and get hot.

b.) breath a sigh of relief, stop playing for next year's contract, and slump.

Put me down as good contract, good player, good feelings, etc.

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That's a pretty fair assumption to make.

The Orioles seem to have secured 4of their 5 infoeld positions. 2B,SS,3B & C. I'd say Gibbons is secure as 1 of 3 OFs for the next few years.

As has been the case for the last few seasons, DH, LF, CF & 1B need to be filled. Conine, Millar, Lopez & Matos clearly are not any solution and should be considered desperation measures for this year. Lopez certainly turned out to be poor signing.

Any power hitting corner OFs or 1B at Ottawa? Bowie?

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I'm much more comfortable around $8M per than at $10. It may be slightly above what MM should receive, but in light of the contracts signed by guys like Reggie Sanders, Koskie, etc, this is fine.

A no-trade clause is not a must-have to me. It's a part of the contract that can be negotiated around at the appropriate time. I can not back up the following assertion, but believe it to be true - the number of players who have waived this clause far outnumber those who refuse to waive it.

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