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What would you offer for Adrian Gonzalez?


jdwilde1

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Thank goodness AM thinks more like Dr. Andrews than many others posting on this thread. Irrespective how close we are or aren't, any chance we have of truly competiting over an extended period of time begins and ends with our pitching. We finally have the possible makings of a young, talented staff, and some what to break it up for a 30 year old first basemen. Yeesh.

First, Gonzalez just turned 27 in May, so no, he is not 30.

Second, Gonzalez has a .970 OPS this season, which is .100 higher than at any other time in his career, thus he will cost more to obtain. He has an .857 OPS at Petco but a 1.073 OPS away from the confines of Petco. His career OPS away is .933.

Of the players in the deal I like (Hernandez, Arrieta, Drake, Scott, and Synder), only Hernandez is currently in the rotation. I am a big fan of Arrieta but rate Britton just a bit better. Drake has a lot of upside but we just signed a lot of upside picks. Snyder isn't necessary if you have a 1B, though it would hurt if Gonzalez ever got injured. Trading Scott allows you to put Reimold at DH and Pie in LF.

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And you've concluded this on the basis of his three starts so far, I guess. I don't know how else you could write him off with such certainty. There's nothing else in his pro career to indicate that Matusz can't be a TOR starter with equal value to an elite first baseman.

This is pretty much the subtext of many of these trade proposals, the willingness of some here to throw Tillman and Matusz into a deal. Neither showed up throwing shutouts, therefore they're expendable.

Because I guarantee, if they had showed up throwing shutouts, they would be considered untouchable gems now, the Crown Jewels of the franchise. But they didn't. So for some people -- the kind who can't see past the previous three weeks of any baseball season -- the bloom is off the rose.

Seriously... Tell me with a straight face that if Tillman and Matusz had a 1.25 ERA right now, you'd be putting them at the front of a trade proposal for Gonzalez.

Yes I would, not both but for sure one of them. Listen you have to give something up to get something. Right now is a good time for the Orioles to step up and make a trade for the big bat and take care of first base for the next five years or so and it will take trading one of the BIG three to make that happen.I love all three of those guys but we need to build a team not just a few nice pitching prospects.AGonz would make it one less hole to fill. Pitching is still going to be a problem if we keep all the pitching prospects or trade one.

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Your just flat out wrong.
Ignoring your bad grammar, he's right.

Hitters as a group peak around age 27-28.

Or course that doesn't mean every player peaks then, just that as a group, that is when hitters peak. Gonzalez could continue to improve, could decline, could get hurt. Those trends are just that, trends, of large groups of players.

They hold true for the population of MLB hitters as a group, but they are often broken by individuals.

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If he is wrong, where is the evidence to support your claim?

Your telling me a player is at the peak of his career at age 27. I'm saying depending on the player he can reach his prime years anywhere from his mid to late 20's to early 30's not his peak year.

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Your telling me a player is at the peak of his career at age 27. I'm saying depending on the player he can reach his prime years anywhere from his mid to late 20's to early 30's not his peak year.
That isn't what he's telling you. He's telling you that "players" peak at age 27, which they do. An individual can peak at any time, but if you're betting on something, it makes sense to go with the trends of all players as a group.

I don't think that all of Gonzalez' good baseball is behind him, but its certainly possible that his best baseball is behind him. I'd love to have him, but trading our young pitching talent for him is insanity.

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Your telling me a player is at the peak of his career at age 27. I'm saying depending on the player he can reach his prime years anywhere from his mid to late 20's to early 30's not his peak year.

The average baseball player peaks at age 27. That's just a fact. Yes, individuals may peak anywhere from age 10 to 50. But if you graph age vs. performance for all players the peak is right around 27. And yes, that means that the most players peak at 27, followed by 28/26, etc.

It's more likely for an randomly selected individual player to peak at 27 than any other age.

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That isn't what he's telling you. He's telling you that "players" peak at age 27, which they do. An individual can peak at any time, but if you're betting on something, it makes sense to go with the trends of all players as a group.

I don't think that all of Gonzalez' good baseball is behind him, but its certainly possible that his best baseball is behind him. I'd love to have him, but trading our young pitching talent for him is insanity.

OK let's just agree to disagree

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It's easy to "agree to disagree" when your opinion isn't backed up by statistics like those that other posters have shown.

What would your answer be to the MOST LIKELY peak age of a player? If it's not "around" 27 +/- a year I'd like to know what your answer is. Yes, there is a standard deviation there, but the answer is 27 or close to it from every indication that I've seen.

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It's easy to "agree to disagree" when your opinion isn't backed up by statistics like those that other posters have shown.

What would your answer be to the MOST LIKELY peak age of a player? If it's not "around" 27 +/- a year I'd like to know what your answer is. Yes, there is a standard deviation there, but the answer is 27 or close to it from every indication that I've seen.

I think he's "agreeing to disagree" with my assertion that trading a slew of talented young pitchers for Gonzalez would be insanity.

He certainly can't "agree to disagree" with the fact that players as a group peak at 27. Can't disagree with facts.

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I think he's "agreeing to disagree" with my assertion that trading a slew of talented young pitchers for Gonzalez would be insanity.

He certainly can't "agree to disagree" with the fact that players as a group peak at 27. Can't disagree with facts.

Do they breakdown the age numbers by position? Does it vary much at all?

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