What would you offer for Adrian Gonzalez?

[DrungoHazewood]

OK let's just agree to disagree

About what, the age 27 thing? You can believe what you want, but that's as well-established as you can get. Take whatever overall performance metric you want, and the average player peaks at 27. The only exceptions are for a few things that rely heavily on athletic ability, like base stealing and some aspects of fielding, and they peak earlier. Footspeed probably peaks the day you make your major league debut.

[Fan4Life]

About what, the age 27 thing? You can believe what you want, but that's as well-established as you can get. Take whatever overall performance metric you want, and the average player peaks at 27. The only exceptions are for a few things that rely heavily on athletic ability, like base stealing and some aspects of fielding, and they peak earlier. Footspeed probably peaks the day you make your major league debut.

Here is a blog regarding another study that found slightly different results than James did. But not enough to argue about.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/04/21/it-aint-necessarily-so/

The actual study... if you care..

http://bayes.bgsu.edu/papers/career_trajectory.pdf

Here's one man's conclusions of the study:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/peak_offensive_age/

[PitchingWins]

Gonzalez is a top-tier player at the peak of his career. Martinez, though very good, is not at his level.Peavy and Lee are a notch below top tier elite.

Look at Toronto's reported asking price for Halladay, who is a top tier elite player.

Those are the only true statements in that post.

V-Mart is most likely a top tier catcher. Minus Joe Mauer, I'd have to put him in the top 4 catchers in the league. That's Top Tier. Not to mention he plays 1st base pretty well too, no you have a catcher who plays almost everyday.

Next up. Cliff Lee. Do you look at his numbers this year? He played for Cleveland, no help there. Since he has come to Phillies it doesn't seem like he as allowed a runner past second base. That's pretty elite to me.

Jake Peavy. Did you see the haul the Padres got for a guy who spends half his time on the DL?

Don't get me wrong, Halladay is the cream of crop, but to say Lee and Peavy are a notch below top tier, is just laughable. Same thing with V-Mart.

[YardBirds13]

Anyone who thinks you can get Adrian Gonzalez without giving up one of Tillman or Matusz is absolutely insane.

Start with one of them. Add a Reimold/Snyder. Add in another highly regarded arm like Britton/Erbe, probably add in a few lower level guys as well.

They aren't just giving this guy away for our leftovers.

[JTrea81]

Anyone who thinks you can get Adrian Gonzalez without giving up one of Tillman or Matusz is absolutely insane.

Start with one of them. Add a Reimold/Snyder. Add in another highly regarded arm like Britton/Erbe, probably add in a few lower level guys as well.

They aren't just giving this guy away for our leftovers.

Correct, they don't have to trade Gonzalez. You have to give them something to make them trade him.

With the pitching depth and financial resources the Orioles have, they can make this trade IMO, as Tillman can be replaced, ditto for Matusz.

You get one of the best first baseman in baseball defensively and offensively and you don't just trade for Gonzalez and stop, you trade for Gonzalez and then continue to upgrade around him, like trading for Hardy and signing Lackey for example.

Trading for Gonzalez signals to your players like Wieters and Jones that you are committed to winning and it signals to your fanbase that you are committed to winning.

Right now the only commitment the fans and players are seeing is that we are going with cheap, young players. Not that we are going to win games.

[Hank Scorpio]

Correct, they don't have to trade Gonzalez. You have to give them something to make them trade him.

With the pitching depth and financial resources the Orioles have, they can make this trade IMO, as Tillman can be replaced.

Who would you replace him with, internally, going into next year?

[JTrea81]

Who would you replace him with, internally, going into next year?

I didn't say it had to be internally. We have the resources to replace him externally. Eventually that external addition could be replaced by an internal addition, thus he would have been replaced externally to start and then internally.

[Hank Scorpio]

I didn't say it had to be internally. We have the resources to replace him externally.

So, you'd rather spend $100MM+ for a pitcher than let your own guy, who many experts predict will be a top of the rotation starter, develop.

10-4.

[Big Mac]

I wouldn't give up Tillman or Matusz.

Arrieta, Reimold, Snyder, and a low level player, provided we can extend him LT.

[PitchingWins]

I wouldn't give up Tillman or Matusz.

Arrieta, Reimold, Snyder, and a low level player, provided we can extend him LT.

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I'm not getting rid of Nolan. No way, no how.

[Big Mac]

I'm sure I'm in the minority, but I'm not getting rid of Nolan. No way, no how.

For a player like AGonz, I would. We can replace him with Pie and though I don't think he will equal Nolan's offensive production, his defense will be much better.

[JTrea81]

So, you'd rather spend $100MM+ for a pitcher than let your own guy, who many experts predict will be a top of the rotation starter, develop.

10-4.

If he develops, or doesn't blow out his arm. And it won't take $100 million to sign a replacement IMO.

Don't forget Tillman isn't likely to give you those 200 IP, 200+ K's until probably 2 years from now if at all. A FA pitcher will likely be as good, if not better than Tillman in the next couple of years, and in that time, the next round of pitching should be ready or we should have drafted or acquired a replacement.

[Hank Scorpio]

If he develops, or doesn't blow out his arm. And it won't take $100 million to sign a replacement IMO.

Don't forget Tillman isn't likely to give you those 200 IP, 200+ K's until probably 2 years from now if at all. A FA pitcher will likely be as good, if not better than Tillman in the next couple of years, and in that time, the next round of pitching should be ready or we should have drafted or acquired a replacement.

What if you spend $100MM on someone and they blow out their arm?

Or is that less likely to happen because we spent $100MM? :laughlol:

How about $75MM? A little *more* likely?

[Satyr3206]

I'm glad MacPhail is running the team and not a GM that would do a 5 for 1 for any player. Grow the arms, buy the bats is pretty simple.

[sangar]

I just got home from a tough day at work and read this thread from the beginning. I don't think I've laughed so hard in a week. You are all like a bunch of friends sitting around on a sweltering August evening *****ing at each other because there is nothing cold to drink.

I'd like to thank each and every participant. You're all crazy.