How will the draft change?

[srock]

Another thought. If MLB did switch to a salary cap system based on league revenues, what happens to the minor league teams? The NFL doesn't have this problem. I don't think there is a comparable situation.

Maybe pre FA players work just like they do know and these salaries don't count against the cap? Maybe all pre-FA players get paid according to service time with no arbitration system.

Is there a cap for each Minor League level?

Would a drafted player's signing bonus be a cap hit?

Do the minor league players get into MLBPA?

[crawdad]

I'll actually be sad when the draft is altered. As currently constructed, this is one of the few places where the O's can catch up to the big boys, who for whatever reason haven't flexed their financial muscles here as much as they could.

I mean honestly, we're talking about 8.8 million being a big number here, the cost for bringing in over 20 very talented players. Yet we also spent approximately the same money on Aubrey Huff's sub-replacement level production in a year with no chance of competing.

If I was GM I would invest at least 15 million in the draft every year.

A strange idea just popped into my head, if we continued to draft a ton of blue chip prosects in later rounds and actually sign them, it might require creating a new minor league affiliate to house all of the players. I wonder what the cost would be to create and run a new minor league team, and if the cost might be worth it if the result was more young talent to develop and tap into. Just playing with an extended hypothetical, certainly not something I'm advocating for.

The fairer the draft becomes, the more likely an untapped market inefficiency is closed, which IMO hurts the non-Boston/MFYs of the AL East.

Something to think about once it is restructured is, are there any new inefficiencies to exploit?

Right, this is the sadly amusing thing.

MLBPA has too much power and interest in MLB level talent. That is where disparity is the greatest, but not much can be done to fix that.

MLBPA does not care too much about amateurs, so this is the easiest place to put in salary restrictions. It also is the place where poorer teams have an incredible ability to compete directly with the rich clubs.

So, by making the draft fair . . . it prevents the poorer teams from utilizing talent acquisition they could actually take advantage of . . . until the rich teams realize the market's inefficiencies.

[MisterCrash]

Most of the article was a joke. I could break it down but I think the flaws are obvious. It's an interesting idea, but the article sucks because the writer is terrible, and some of the guys he's quoting are idiots.

[DrungoHazewood]

Another thought. If MLB did switch to a salary cap system based on league revenues, what happens to the minor league teams? The NFL doesn't have this problem. I don't think there is a comparable situation.

Maybe pre FA players work just like they do know and these salaries don't count against the cap? Maybe all pre-FA players get paid according to service time with no arbitration system.

Is there a cap for each Minor League level?

Would a drafted player's signing bonus be a cap hit?

Do the minor league players get into MLBPA?

I'd be very surprised if the cap had anything to do with anything but the major league payroll. Which is why it won't do what most folks want it to do. The Yanks will spend 100% of the cap every year, and they'll dump the extra $50M, $100M, or whatever into player development.

The one place small-market teams can compete now is player development. With a cap that's gone, IMO.

[DrungoHazewood]

A strange idea just popped into my head, if we continued to draft a ton of blue chip prosects in later rounds and actually sign them, it might require creating a new minor league affiliate to house all of the players. I wonder what the cost would be to create and run a new minor league team, and if the cost might be worth it if the result was more young talent to develop and tap into. Just playing with an extended hypothetical, certainly not something I'm advocating for.

I don't think that's necessary. The extra players would just displace the Grade D/F prospects that are all over every minor league team's roster. Instead of signing 27-year-old indy league vets to fill out the Bowie roster you just slot in better prospects.

[Fan4Life]

Because the return on investment is much, much higher on amateur talent. The Pirates or Royals wouldn't be any worse, and they'd probably be better, if instead of signing a bunch of mid-tier free agents like Jose Guillen they went and spent that money on international talent and overslot draft picks. Guillen has been a below-replacement performer for $36M. For $400k they could have signed a guy like Oscar Salazar, got equal or better production, then used the remaining $35.6M to become the kings of international and over-slot acquisition.

I was looking at ownership keeping their revenue sharing $$$ as opposed to investing it into players that even at the best odds, is less than 50/50 they become an everyday player. If the costs of those players was less, the risk to the teams with less overall money available wouldn't be nearly as high and they would be in the game. At that point if they skip, they're just greedy.

[csgordos]

I'll actually be sad when the draft is altered. As currently constructed, this is one of the few places where the O's can catch up to the big boys, who for whatever reason haven't flexed their financial muscles here as much as they could.

I mean honestly, we're talking about 8.8 million being a big number here, the cost for bringing in over 20 very talented players. Yet we also spent approximately the same money on Aubrey Huff's sub-replacement level production in a year with no chance of competing.

If I was GM I would invest at least 15 million in the draft every year.

A strange idea just popped into my head, if we continued to draft a ton of blue chip prosects in later rounds and actually sign them, it might require creating a new minor league affiliate to house all of the players. I wonder what the cost would be to create and run a new minor league team, and if the cost might be worth it if the result was more young talent to develop and tap into. Just playing with an extended hypothetical, certainly not something I'm advocating for.

The fairer the draft becomes, the more likely an untapped market inefficiency is closed, which IMO hurts the non-Boston/MFYs of the AL East.

Something to think about once it is restructured is, are there any new inefficiencies to exploit?

Great Post!! Exploiting Market Inefficiencies...Let's see where has that been done before in baseball? Oakland anybody. We have already discussed how OBP is too well known now. The amateur system and defense is where you go next. We are missing out on the international market because of previous poor FO decisions. We are starting, but behind, but being last isn't always bad. Maybe we can use what has worked for others and new technology to make our DR/Venezuala, etc scouting systems the best in the future.

I think the drafting system favors the Orioles and the draft was great for the Orioles this year. They quickly signed a top level talent and started him in the system. Spent the extra money that would have been needed to sign the rest of the draft.

[Mashed Potatoes]

I don't think that's necessary. The extra players would just displace the Grade D/F prospects that are all over every minor league team's roster. Instead of signing 27-year-old indy league vets to fill out the Bowie roster you just slot in better prospects.

Your post made me check out our minor league depth chart to see what percentage of the roster are non-prospects. Using the OH's grading system here's the breakdown by team citing how many of the starters are Utility/Middle Relief prospects/AAAA guys and below. (I'm looking at 18 total starters, 5 SPs, 4 RPs, C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, RF, CF, LF DH)

Norfolk: 11

Bowie: 13

Frederick: 12

Delmarva: 13

So it appears you're right there's plenty of room as is, over half of our minor league starters are not major league potential starting caliber prospects.

[Birds of B'more]

Stark seems really hung up on the idea that Strasburg got more money than Pedro, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, and some other mid-tier free agents.

Why?

Strasburg grades out as an A++ prospect. He's probably the Nats' best pitcher right now, and should just get better. If Strasburg was a free agent, able to negotiate with any team, who in their right mind would pay more for the last 10% of Pedro's career than 100% of Strasburg's? Why in the world would anyone think that Strasburg was worth less than any of those guys?

I don't understand why people think that a player's value should be nearly 100% based on past major league performances, and almost 0% on likely future value. It's not about "earning" your bonus, it's about taking advantage of your abilities (i.e. assets that are valuable to a team) to get a fair deal.

The whole CBA is practically set up that way. Many ML players earn less than their market value for the best years of their career...in some cases their salaries are even fixed for those years. Then they are finally compensated market value for their production near the end of their prime. And not long after that, they eventually become overpaid financial burdens in their final years of a big contract and are made the scapegoat for their team's woes by the media, fans, and sometimes even their own front office. Not saying this is true of all players, but it sure seems that way in a lot of cases.