What is your dollar limit for FA in 2009?

[El Gordo]

This is false...You put the largest contract on the table, especially to a Boras client, and we can attract one of them.

So you are in favor of putting 7/$140 on the table for Holliday, and 5/$110 for Lackey?

[Fan4Life]

Boston likes Bay and keeps him? Wasn't he a fan favorite from the start of the season?

I suppose there are some situations where it could work out. But if the Sox miss the playoffs, perform poorly in the playoffs,

OR

the Yankees don't win the WS,

I don't see Holliday, Lackey or Harden being available at a $ amount we'd be happy with. You do?

[Fan4Life]

I don't understand your question. A Free Agent is available to everyone.

I don't see Holliday, Bay, Lackey and Harden not being either a Yankee or Redsox this offseason unless someone can show me how that's possible. Both teams clearly have a need for these positions. While it may be fun, it's a waste of time to talk about who we want to pursue until you resolve how the Yankees and Sox are most likely to fill their needs first. Obviously it would be speculation at best... but it matters.

You mentioned that the Yankees may pass on Lackey, would the Sox?

Beckett

Lester

Lackey

Matsuzaka

Bucholtz

Yankees are losing Pettitte, and can't be thrilled with Mitre in their starting rotation.

[waroriole]

Not doubt that we are in much better position to bid on any single player, perhaps 2, but I don't know that we should, or will for that matter, just because we can. $22M should go to an AGon/Tex type player. Is Holliday in that class?

AGon is not in the same class as Tex. Holliday is a more valuable player than him. AGon may have a chance to become an elite player, but right now he is not.

[waroriole]

So you are in favor of putting 7/$140 on the table for Holliday, and 5/$110 for Lackey?

I'd be shocked if Lackey gets anywhere near 5/110.

[Fan4Life]

AGon is not in the same class as Tex. Holliday is a more valuable player than him. AGon may have a chance to become an elite player, but right now he is not.

Ok, fair enough. Does that mean you would put $22M a year into Holliday for 6- ish years?

[TyCobb]

I suppose there are some situations where it could work out. But if the Sox miss the playoffs, perform poorly in the playoffs,

OR

the Yankees don't win the WS,

I don't see Holliday, Lackey or Harden being available at a $ amount we'd be happy with. You do?

I don't think AM will go after Lackey or Harden at all. Maybe a small deal for Bedard...but I would put that at less than 10%.

I think if AM really wants Holliday....we will get him. Our Payroll is so low that we are going to have to bring it up just for PR reasons. 20 million a year added to our payroll won't even put us at 70 million.

[Mackus]

I don't see Holliday, Bay, Lackey and Harden not being either a Yankee or Redsox this offseason unless someone can show me how that's possible. Both teams clearly have a need for these positions. While it may be fun, it's a waste of time to talk about who we want to pursue until you resolve how the Yankees and Sox are most likely to fill their needs first. Obviously it would be speculation at best... but it matters.

You mentioned that the Yankees may pass on Lackey, would the Sox?

Beckett

Lester

Lackey

Matsuzaka

Bucholtz

Yankees are losing Pettitte, and can't be thrilled with Mitre in their starting rotation.

The Sox aren't the Yankees. They can't just decide they want a guy and spend whatever they want to get him. They can be outbid.

An no, I don't think the Red Sox will have any super high interest in Lackey. Their rotation is pretty solid already, if they think Matsuzaka can come back. They've got a lot of young talented starting pitchers who are close to breaking in. They can certainly be outbid for Lackey if we want him badly enough (and the Yankees aren't hard after him).

[PitchingWins]

AGon is not in the same class as Tex. Holliday is a more valuable player than him. AGon may have a chance to become an elite player, but right now he is not.

I think you are looking at value in the wrong way here. I would have to think that to US a power hitting 1b would have more value, than a power hitting LF, we have the outfield situation covered 2x over. I also don't believe that AGon is in the Tex class, but, who really is, at least at 1b. Value wise though, I would think all numbers equal, AGon at 5/90 would be worth more to us than say Holliday at 5/90, obviously those numbers are just thrown out there, but really any substituted numbers as long as they are the same would work in that metric.

[El Gordo]

Not doubt that we are in much better position to bid on any single player, perhaps 2, but I don't know that we should, or will for that matter, just because we can. $22M should go to an AGon/Tex type player. Is Holliday in that class?

Yes according to Fangraphs. They have his total worth as $111.7mil. Teix at $109mil and AGonz at $61.5mil. This season AGonz has been worth $21mil., Holliday $19.7mil., $17.4mil.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1873&position=OF

[waroriole]

Ok, fair enough. Does that mean you would put $22M a year into Holliday for 6- ish years?

The more I think about it I might be willing to do 6/120. After that it would be tough to go higher.

[Pruke]

A world champion of course.

Then my budget for the 2010 Orioles is $180MM. Let's do it.

[theobird]

This is not a FA class that interests me, and I do not think the timing is right in general for us to be in it for any of the bigger names. I would think that the best tact for us is to continue to build from within and maybe make a key trade or two. Spending, or trying to spend at this point would be a big mistake and I bet AM thinks so too. I think next year is the opportunity to find out what we have in Bell and Snyder, and to continue to let our young pitching establish themselves.

[PitchingWins]

Then my budget for the 2010 Orioles is $180MM. Let's do it.

And that is the problem...

Everyone wants to spend, spend, spend. I realize, we have been saving our pennies for a rainy day, and it's been raining a long time. I would love to have a $100 Million payroll, but who do you spend it on? Are you going to just replace young under control players for expensive aging free agents? I'm not, I have seen what that does for/to a franchise. This isn't an attack on you Pruke, I swear. I feel if we are going to move a young pitcher, that is fine. We better replace him with a bonafide FA one.

For instance...

I would be willing to deal Arietta + another highly ranked arm + some MIL fringe talent, for AGonz, provided we obtain Lackey.

[waroriole]

I think you are looking at value in the wrong way here. I would have to think that to US a power hitting 1b would have more value, than a power hitting LF, we have the outfield situation covered 2x over. I also don't believe that AGon is in the Tex class, but, who really is, at least at 1b. Value wise though, I would think all numbers equal, AGon at 5/90 would be worth more to us than say Holliday at 5/90, obviously those numbers are just thrown out there, but really any substituted numbers as long as they are the same would work in that metric.

I gotta disagree. If we have Holliday we look like this:

LF: Holliday

DH: Reimold

1B: Snyder

If we have AGon we look like this:

LF: Reimold

DH: Snyder

1B: AGon

The only difference in offense is between AGon and Holliday. Holliday is a lifetime 133 OPS+ and AGon is a 132 OPS+. Now AGon is having a phenomenal year, but this is the first time he has had an OPS of above .871.

Defensively we get Holliday who is GG caliber in LF versus AGon who is average at 1B.

Plus, to get Holliday we only have to give up money. To get AGon we have to give up alot of prospects, plus sign him to an extension.