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How would you redraft this year's draft?


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With the draft and signing period over for the Orioles, we can see that we have acquired these guys:

Left Excerpted from OH

1 5 Matt Hobgood RHP Norco (Calif.) HS Calif.$2,422,000

2 54 Mychal Givens SS Plant HS, Tampa Fla. 8/17 $800,000

3 85 Tyler Townsend 1B Florida International Fla.$417,600

4 116 Randy Henry RHP South Mountain CC Ariz.8/7/09 $365,000 - $106,700 above slot

5 146 Ashur Tolliver LHP Oklahoma City Okla. 8-11 - $200,000 - $25,400 above slot

6 176 Justin Dalles C South Carolina S.C. $150,000

7 206 Aaron Wirsch LHP El Toro HS, Lake Forest, Calif. Calif.$200,000

9 266 Ryan Berry RHP Rice Texas 8/10 - $417,600 - $367,600 above recommended slot

10 296 Jacob Cowan RHP San Jacinto (Texas) JC Texas $175,000

11 326 Michael Ohlman C Lakewood Ranch HS, Bradenton, Fla. Fla. $995,000 August 15

12 356 Steve Bumbry OF Virginia Tech Va.

13 386 Tyler Kelly 2B UC Davis Calif.

14 416 David Baker RHP Hemet (Calif.) HS Calif.

16 476 Ryan Palsha RHP Diablo Valley (Calif.) JC Calif.

18 536 Jarret Martin LHP Bakersfield (Calif.) JC Calif.$250,000

19 566 Kipp Schutz OF Indiana Ind.

20 596 James Brandhorts RHP Lamar Texas

21 626 Kevin Landry RHP William & Mary Va.

22 656 Cameron Coffey LHP Houston Christian HS Texas (August 12) $990,000

23 686 Michael Mooney SS Florida Fla.

24 716 Justin Anderson LHP Louisiana-Monroe La.

26 776 Michael Mechaw LHP Shelton State (Ala.) CC Ala.

27 806 Michael Planeta OF Glendale (Ariz.) CC Ariz.

28 836 Kyle Hoppy OF Orchard Park (N.Y.) HS N.Y. August 16

30 896 Brenden Webb OF Palomar (Calif.) JC Calif. $250,000 (8/4/09)

31 926 Mike Flacco 3B Catonsville (Md.) CC Md.

38 1136 Josh Dowdy RHP Appalachian State N.C.

45 1346 David Rivera RHP Francisco Oller HS, P.R.

50 1496 Timothy Berry LHP San Marcos (Calif.) Calif.

They spent around 9MM on the draft in total.

What I want to do is see how you all would select the players after the fact. We have signing bonuses for the first ten round here:

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=1611

We will work with an 8MM budget for the first ten rounds, assuming it takes a million to go after 20 organizational types after the tenth round. If you want to select Webb, Coffey, Martin, or Ohlman . . . subtract that value from 8MM. Also, remember if you are going to select someone like Grant Green, he would like see his signing bonus rise about 750k-1MM due to being selected 5th. So, keep that in mind.

For instance, here is my list:

No overslotting after the tenth round (so no Coffey, etc.)

1. Zach Wheeler HS RHSP 3.3MM

2. Marc Krauss Ohio OF 0.55MM

3. Chris Dominguez Louisville 3B 0.4113MM

4. Luke Bailey HS C 0.75MM

5. Jeff Malm HS 1B 0.68MM

6. Ian Krol HS LHSP 0.925MM

7. Aaron Wirsch HS LHSP 0.2MM

8. Ryan Berry Rice RHSP 0.4176MM

9. Kendall Volz Baylor RHP 0.55MM

10. Jacob Cowan JuCo RHSP 0.175MM

0.0411MM left over.

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Wow, what happened to all of the people who disagreed with this draft? Even those who agreed?

Thought this would be an interesting exercise in draft philosophy.

Sorry, not ignoring you, had to put some thought into it and I have a busy day today, so I probably won't get around to it until tonight or tomorrow morning. :)

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Sorry, not ignoring you, had to put some thought into it and I have a busy day today, so I probably won't get around to it until tonight or tomorrow morning. :)

Oh, no worries, I just figured guys like JTrea and others who were angry, Angry, ANGRY, would have something to contribute here.

Eh.

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Sorry, not ignoring you, had to put some thought into it and I have a busy day today, so I probably won't get around to it until tonight or tomorrow morning. :)

haha, same here, I could throw some names out there, but I dont have the time to go looking for the signing bonuses right now....

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With the draft and signing period over for the Orioles, we can see that we have acquired these guys:

Left Excerpted from OH

1 5 Matt Hobgood RHP Norco (Calif.) HS Calif.$2,422,000

2 54 Mychal Givens SS Plant HS, Tampa Fla. 8/17 $800,000

3 85 Tyler Townsend 1B Florida International Fla.$417,600

4 116 Randy Henry RHP South Mountain CC Ariz.8/7/09 $365,000 - $106,700 above slot

5 146 Ashur Tolliver LHP Oklahoma City Okla. 8-11 - $200,000 - $25,400 above slot

6 176 Justin Dalles C South Carolina S.C. $150,000

7 206 Aaron Wirsch LHP El Toro HS, Lake Forest, Calif. Calif.$200,000

9 266 Ryan Berry RHP Rice Texas 8/10 - $417,600 - $367,600 above recommended slot

10 296 Jacob Cowan RHP San Jacinto (Texas) JC Texas $175,000

11 326 Michael Ohlman C Lakewood Ranch HS, Bradenton, Fla. Fla. $995,000 August 15

12 356 Steve Bumbry OF Virginia Tech Va.

13 386 Tyler Kelly 2B UC Davis Calif.

14 416 David Baker RHP Hemet (Calif.) HS Calif.

16 476 Ryan Palsha RHP Diablo Valley (Calif.) JC Calif.

18 536 Jarret Martin LHP Bakersfield (Calif.) JC Calif.$250,000

19 566 Kipp Schutz OF Indiana Ind.

20 596 James Brandhorts RHP Lamar Texas

21 626 Kevin Landry RHP William & Mary Va.

22 656 Cameron Coffey LHP Houston Christian HS Texas (August 12) $990,000

23 686 Michael Mooney SS Florida Fla.

24 716 Justin Anderson LHP Louisiana-Monroe La.

26 776 Michael Mechaw LHP Shelton State (Ala.) CC Ala.

27 806 Michael Planeta OF Glendale (Ariz.) CC Ariz.

28 836 Kyle Hoppy OF Orchard Park (N.Y.) HS N.Y. August 16

30 896 Brenden Webb OF Palomar (Calif.) JC Calif. $250,000 (8/4/09)

31 926 Mike Flacco 3B Catonsville (Md.) CC Md.

38 1136 Josh Dowdy RHP Appalachian State N.C.

45 1346 David Rivera RHP Francisco Oller HS, P.R.

50 1496 Timothy Berry LHP San Marcos (Calif.) Calif.

They spent around 9MM on the draft in total.

What I want to do is see how you all would select the players after the fact. We have signing bonuses for the first ten round here:

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=1611

We will work with an 8MM budget for the first ten rounds, assuming it takes a million to go after 20 organizational types after the tenth round. If you want to select Webb, Coffey, Martin, or Ohlman . . . subtract that value from 8MM. Also, remember if you are going to select someone like Grant Green, he would like see his signing bonus rise about 750k-1MM due to being selected 5th. So, keep that in mind.

For instance, here is my list:

No overslotting after the tenth round (so no Coffey, etc.)

1. Zach Wheeler HS RHSP 3.3MM

2. Marc Krauss Ohio OF 0.55MM

3. Chris Dominguez Louisville 3B 0.4113MM

4. Luke Bailey HS C 0.75MM

5. Jeff Malm HS 1B 0.68MM

6. Ian Krol HS LHSP 0.925MM

7. Aaron Wirsch HS LHSP 0.2MM

8. Ryan Berry Rice RHSP 0.4176MM

9. Kendall Volz Baylor RHP 0.55MM

10. Jacob Cowan JuCo RHSP 0.175MM

0.0411MM left over.

I worked all of this out and then my computer froze! Arggh!

Anyway:

1. Grant Green Southern California SS 2.75MM

2. Andrew Oliver Oklahoma State LHP 1.495MM

3. Chris Dominguez Louisville 3B 0.4113MM

4. Randy Henry South Mountain (Ariz.) CC RHP .475MM

5. Jeff Malm HS 1B 0.68MM

6. Ian Krol HS LHSP 0.925MM

7. Jacob Cowan JuCo RHSP 0.175MM

8. Ryan Berry Rice RHSP 0.4176MM

9. Kendall Volz Baylor RHP 0.55MM

10. Aaron Northcraft Mater Dei HS RHP .125MM

For a total of 8.0039MM spent in the first 10 rounds

This would leave me 3.9 thousand dollars over budget, which is marginal. I'm assuming that's okay...what say you Craw?

I obviously liked your strategy in rounds 3-10, as we drafted 6 of the same players.

I generally went BPA, which worked out with some high end college talent early and high upside HS pitchers later. I feel good about walking away having drafted 3 premium positional prospects all at positions of need (sort of just worked out that way) and racking up an inventory of HS and college pitchers.

Even though I spent a bit more than I'd have liked to on Oliver, I feel like I got another legit first round talent and a pitcher who should move quickly with some slight mechanical adjustments.

Despite the money given to Green and Oliver, I still basically went over slot for everyone else I signed in the first round.

Of course, had I signed some of these guys where I did they would have likely demanded slightly higher bonuses, so this is more complicated than it seems.

Also, it would have been much riskier to make these picks on draft day without knowing whether I'd have the ability to sign them all and stay within my budget.

Joe Jordan definitely has a difficult job. With the benefit of hindsight and the assumption of fixed bonuses, this is how I'd roll.

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Also, remember if you are going to select someone like Grant Green, he would like see his signing bonus rise about 750k-1MM due to being selected 5th. So, keep that in mind.

Ah, I missed this the first time I read through your post. I didn't think it was gonna be that easy.

I know you only selected Wheeler one spot ahead of where he was actually taken, but one slot in the top ten can make a big difference. It seems there are a couple of other guys both you and I selected that would have commanded a slightly higher bonus as well.

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1. Grant Green Southern California SS 2.75MM

2. Andrew Oliver Oklahoma State LHP 1.495MM

3. Chris Dominguez Louisville 3B 0.4113MM

4. Randy Henry South Mountain (Ariz.) CC RHP .475MM

5. Jeff Malm HS 1B 0.68MM

6. Ian Krol HS LHSP 0.925MM

7. Jacob Cowan JuCo RHSP 0.175MM

8. Ryan Berry Rice RHSP 0.4176MM

9. Kendall Volz Baylor RHP 0.55MM

10. Aaron Northcraft Mater Dei HS RHP .125MM

For a total of 8.0039MM spent in the first 10 rounds

Okay, with the assumption that Green would go for ~.75MM more if selected 5th, I would still pick him but I'd give up on Oliver in place of Eric Smith. That's a big drop-off in upside and it makes my draft a little less sparkly, though it allows me to grab Wirsch in the 7th round. Oh well. My revised top 10:

1. Grant Green Southern California SS 3.5MM

2. Eric Smith Rhode Island RHP .6057MM

3. Chris Dominguez Louisville 3B 0.4113MM

4. Randy Henry South Mountain (Ariz.) CC RHP .475MM

5. Jeff Malm HS 1B 0.68MM

6. Ian Krol HS LHSP 0.925MM

7. Aaron Wirsch LHSP El Toro HS (CA) .2MM

8. Ryan Berry Rice RHSP 0.4176MM

9. Kendall Volz Baylor RHP 0.55MM

10. Jacob Cowan JuCo RHSP 0.175MM

Which would leave me .0404MM under budget.

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1: Zack Wheeler $3.3 Mil

2: Garrett Gould $900K

3: Max Stassi $1.5 Mil

4: Kent Matthes $200K

5: Jeff Malm $680K

6: Madison Younginer $975K

7: Ian Krol $925K

8: Jake Cowan $175K

9: Ryan Berry $417K

10: Cameron Coffey $990K

This is what I would do, but I really like what we did and am all for our 2009 draft.

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Okay, with the assumption that Green would go for ~.75MM more if selected 5th, I would still pick him but I'd give up on Oliver in place of Eric Smith. That's a big drop-off in upside and it makes my draft a little less sparkly, though it allows me to grab Wirsch in the 7th round. Oh well. My revised top 10:

1. Grant Green Southern California SS 3.5MM

2. Eric Smith Rhode Island RHP .6057MM

3. Chris Dominguez Louisville 3B 0.4113MM

4. Randy Henry South Mountain (Ariz.) CC RHP .475MM

5. Jeff Malm HS 1B 0.68MM

6. Ian Krol HS LHSP 0.925MM

7. Aaron Wirsch LHSP El Toro HS (CA) .2MM

8. Ryan Berry Rice RHSP 0.4176MM

9. Kendall Volz Baylor RHP 0.55MM

10. Jacob Cowan JuCo RHSP 0.175MM

Which would leave me .0404MM under budget.

Yeah, I was struggling between Grant Green and Wheeler. I do think the difference for him at the 5 slot instead of the 6 slot would have been negligible particularly with the Sanchez pick before the Orioles.

I think if I would have gone with Green, I would have gone after Matt Graham instead of Malm.

I think how our two selection differ is that I went a bit more for upside, while you went for more projectability. I think both of our choices are upside oriented.

If we went for projectability, I think this would be the target:

1. Alex White

2. Marc Krauss

3. Matt Dominguez

4. Adam Warren

5. Ryan Wheeler

6. Brooks Raley

7. Sean Black

8. Ryan Berry

9. Kendall Volz

10. Jacob Cowan

You then have about 2MM left to spend. Maybe Ohlman, Webb, Martin, Nathan Karns, and Jorge Reyes.

That is a pretty good looking draft, too.

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1: Zack Wheeler $3.3 Mil

2: Garrett Gould $900K

3: Max Stassi $1.5 Mil

4: Kent Matthes $200K

5: Jeff Malm $680K

6: Madison Younginer $975K

7: Ian Krol $925K

8: Jake Cowan $175K

9: Ryan Berry $417K

10: Cameron Coffey $990K

This is what I would do, but I really like what we did and am all for our 2009 draft.

Yeah, I liked Stassi, but had a hard time fitting him in with the others I wanted to take a chance on. I also thought he wasn't twice as likely to make it as Luke Bailey. I think here you show a pretty aggressive top ten, which is probably what this year was about. It seems there were a good number of risky upside guys than "sure bets."

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Yeah, I liked Stassi, but had a hard time fitting him in with the others I wanted to take a chance on. I also thought he wasn't twice as likely to make it as Luke Bailey. I think here you show a pretty aggressive top ten, which is probably what this year was about. It seems there were a good number of risky upside guys than "sure bets."

Tons of risky upside guys. IMO thats biggest diff between the top of the 2010 draft and the 09 draft, atleast in the 1st round. There were really no sure things at the top of the 09 draft, which is why we didnt take any of the big high dollar names. Ill feel much more content with who we'll have to choose from in this upcoming draft. I liked Luke Bailey a lot too, and he was less expensive, but for some reason I really like Stassi since I first really began to dissect the 09 draft.

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