Roch: O's may look to get a big bat this offseason

[Sports Guy]

Since he has been in the ML he has been a 0, a +3, a +7, and a -9 so far this season. Nothing there to indicate he is an upper echelon CF. That would be someone like Gutierez who is consistently in the +20's. I said he was good not great. That's giving him a little more credit than perhaps he deserves.

First of all, I said upper echelon POTENTIAL...I know, it would require you to read and understand the words but try it.

Look, it is pretty obvious that you put a lot of weight in these stats and that's fine...But it is also obvious that you are a poor judge of talent and that you don't really understand how to use the stats.

[Tx Oriole]

Didn't Vlad already use and abuse us once? Why would we negotiate with him again?

I would rather have Vlad than Huff.

[clapdiddy]

First of all, I said upper echelon POTENTIAL...I know, it would require you to read and understand the words but try it.

Look, it is pretty obvious that you put a lot of weight in these stats and that's fine...But it is also obvious that you are a poor judge of talent and that you don't really understand how to use the stats.

I'm not taking up for EG (trust me!), but to my eyes, Jones has NOT played as well in the field this season as he did last year and it really isn't close, so I think in this case the stats don't lie.

I still think our best defensive alignment would have Pie in CF and Jones in LF, with Reimold DH'ing.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'm not taking up for EG (trust me!), but to my eyes, Jones has NOT played as well in the field this season as he did last year and it really isn't close, so I think in this case the stats don't lie.

I still think our best defensive alignment would have Pie in CF and Jones in LF, with Reimold DH'ing.

The stats don't lie, he probably hasn't played as well this year as last. What the defensive stats do say, though, is that you can't have 100% confidence in one year's worth of data. A one-year, UZR or +/- number is kind of like a few months of OPS, or one year of park factor. It means something, but the noise in the data is enough that you have pretty big error bars.

Jones may have had a poor year, defense slumps just like anything else. He might have had tougher chances this year. He might be nursing a little injury. His added bulk might be limiting his range. He might be positioning himself badly. It might carry over next year, it might not.

All we know for sure is that the largest sample we have puts him a little above average, and that fielding ability tends to peak early.

[Sports Guy]

I'm not taking up for EG (trust me!), but to my eyes, Jones has NOT played as well in the field this season as he did last year and it really isn't close, so I think in this case the stats don't lie.

I still think our best defensive alignment would have Pie in CF and Jones in LF, with Reimold DH'ing.

Don't get me wrong, I agree that his defense is down this year...I agree that he plays too shallow.

But relying on one year's worth stats is wrong...Ignoring what he has done in the past is wrong.

Not mentioning the idea of his minor leg injuries that he had early in the season, which could easily still be bothering him, is wrong.

El Gordo likes to cite this stats and make these accusations about how they aren't any good, etc...He is just wrong.

[Sports Guy]

The stats don't lie, he probably hasn't played as well this year as last. What the defensive stats do say, though, is that you can't have 100% confidence in one year's worth of data. A one-year, UZR or +/- number is kind of like a few months of OPS, or one year of park factor. It means something, but the noise in the data is enough that you have pretty big error bars.

Jones may have had a poor year, defense slumps just like anything else. He might have had tougher chances this year. He might be nursing a little injury. His added bulk might be limiting his range. He might be positioning himself badly. It might carry over next year, it might not.

All we know for sure is that the largest sample we have puts him a little above average, and that fielding ability tends to peak early.

Oops, beat me to it.

[ejf1025]

I will say that I'm starting to get little concerns about Jones...not about D....but his approach at the plate.

We saw a big jump, I hope to see another....but he's really slowed since his incredibly hot start.

[Hans Moleman]

I will say that I'm starting to get little concerns about Jones...not about D....but his approach at the plate.

We saw a big jump, I hope to see another....but he's really slowed since his incredibly hot start.

Yeah, someone hitting .283 with 19 homeruns and 70 rbis. Boy, if we had a whole team producing like that we'd be even worse.

[ejf1025]

Yeah, someone hitting .283 with 19 homeruns and 70 rbis. Boy, if we had a whole team producing like that we'd be even worse.

Look at his splits, ass.

[LookinUp]

Probably because the last time we heard this, we got Sammy Sosa, but without the juice and the cork.

I dig the cynicism, but that was under a different regime. If you think Andy will target a Sosa type, I think you're badly mistaken.

Exactly, look for a Thome, Vlad, Huff type signing.

I've been thinking more and more about this, and I definitely wouldn't mind a Thome, Abreu or Vlad signing (for DH). I think the first two could be a great influence on our hitters, and we wouldn't lose top prospects in order to make it happen.

If the alternative is trading for AGon, I can support that, but not at the price that has been speculated on this board. Of our top starting pitching prospects (meaning Arrieta, Britton, Erbe), I'd only be willing to give up one.

I'd be willing to include guys that don't necessarily have to be part of our future, such as Pie, Guthrie, Scott, Ray, Patton and Turner. I'd also be willing to include other MiL talent such as Snyder, Joseph, Drake, Bundy, Beal, Waring, Avery and Hoes (reluctantly).

A passable deal could be made with these guys. I just don't think multiple high value/near ready pitchers should be included given where we are in the rebuild.

One other consideration. AM may actually be able to net a ton of value for Bergesen. If Bergesen's over valued on the market, we should consider taking advantage of that now. I wouldn't be upset if Bergesen were traded instead of Arrieta or Britton.

[Hans Moleman]

Look at his splits, ass.

You know what, I don't care about his splits, or how he is against the k-zone or whatever other funky, unnecessary stats people like to spout out. For a 2nd year full-time starter it's pretty darn good. I couldn't care less about his OPS, his GPS, etc.

And what are you, 10, with the name calling?

[PrivateO]

You know what, I don't care about his splits, or how he is against the k-zone or whatever other funky, unnecessary stats people like to spout out. For a 2nd year full-time starter it's pretty darn good. I couldn't care less about his OPS, his GPS, etc.

And what are you, 10, with the name calling?

I'm curious, have you read Moneyball by Michael Lewis?

Because in it, Billy Beane talks about how OPS and OBP are two of the best stats to determine what guys should be signed and playing in the lineup.

[Hans Moleman]

I'm curious, have you read Moneyball by Michael Lewis?

Because in it, Billy Beane talks about how OPS and OBP are two of the best stats to determine what guys should be signed and playing in the lineup.

I'm also curious, have you seen how those Billy Beane A's doing this year?

[waroriole]

El Gordo likes to cite this stats and make these accusations about how they aren't any good, etc...He is just wrong.

Isn't he the guy who wanted to move Nick to 1B?

[waroriole]

I'm curious, have you read Moneyball by Michael Lewis?

Because in it, Billy Beane talks about how OPS and OBP are two of the best stats to determine what guys should be signed and playing in the lineup.

There's no point in arguing with this guy. After 100 posts he's still in the red, and for a reason.