Roch: O's may look to get a big bat this offseason

[Hans Moleman]

Where was I "completely down?"

He's slowed down...A LOT...it's a fact. Not calling for his head, not saying it was a bad year...just a little worried about his pitch recognition.

"A little concerned"...try reading. Then try conversing.

It's even more ironic that you would follow that up with this:

Yeah, seems like those who don't wear the orange and black colored O's sunglasses or think everything is sunshine, puppy dogs, lollipops over at The Warehouse isn't highly regarded.

Guess you weren't blessed with the sharpest toolset...

And the insults keep coming. At least you're consistent. So far you've called me names and insinuated that I'm stupid. What's next? Mama jokes?

[PitchingWins]

And the insults keep coming. At least you're consistent. So far you've called me names and insinuated that I'm stupid. What's next? Mama jokes?

Your mama is so dumb.... She thinks the Orioles are a great baserunning team! :rofl:

Just done in jest...

[Hans Moleman]

Your mama is so dumb.... She thinks the Orioles are a great baserunning team! :rofl:

Just done in jest...

Nah, Mom's a Natinals fan. She's so dumb she thinks Adam Dunn is a gold-glove 1st basemen.

[ejf1025]

And the insults keep coming. At least you're consistent. So far you've called me names and insinuated that I'm stupid. What's next? Mama jokes?

It wasn't that hard.

You want to start over and explain why you don't have concerns about Jones, perhaps some observation since you don't care about stats?

Would you like to attribute his decline in production to something in particular? Is it just growing pains?

In other words, would you actually like to talk baseball...or do you just like trying to make aggressive, little one-liners?

[Sports Guy]

I will say that I'm starting to get little concerns about Jones...not about D....but his approach at the plate.

We saw a big jump, I hope to see another....but he's really slowed since his incredibly hot start.

This is who Jones is...he may get better, in terms of plate discipline, as time goes on but generally speaking, he is going to be an 800-850 OPS guy with 25-30 homer capabilities. His OBP will likely fluctuate in the 320-345 range, depending on the year...he will learn to become a better base stealer and hopefully learn better positioning in CF...A GG caliber CFer with an 800+ OPS is worth a lot but I think people got a little too excited over a few month stretch...Many felt he was a better hitter than Nick and its not really close.

Isn't he the guy who wanted to move Nick to 1B?

Yep..same guy...That's what I mean about him not knowing how to use the stat.

[Hans Moleman]

It wasn't that hard.

You want to start over and explain why you don't have concerns about Jones, perhaps some observation since you don't care about stats?

Would you like to attribute his decline in production to something in particular? Is it just growing pains?

In other words, would you actually like to talk baseball...or do you just like trying to make aggressive, little one-liners?

Okay. Yes I do think it's growing pains and he's pressing alot, mostly from the team lacking a true power hitter. I think he started hitting homers early and saw no one else really was and thought he may have to be the "power hitter." He's a young guy who probably felt he had to try to carry the team with his own power. I don't think it's a big deal and definitely don't think he should be benched for Felix Pie.

As for his defense, it's not like he's Adam Dunn out there and I've seen him make many many plays that are hard, look easy.

Cut the guy some slack.

[ejf1025]

Okay. Yes I do think it's growing pains and he's pressing alot, mostly from the team lacking a true power hitter. I think he started hitting homers early and saw no one else really was and thought he may have to be the "power hitter." He's a young guy who probably felt he had to try to carry the team with his own power. I don't think it's a big deal and definitely don't think he should be benched for Felix Pie.

As for his defense, it's not like he's Adam Dunn out there and I've seen him make many many plays that are hard, look easy.

Cut the guy some slack.

I have no issues with his defense. I think he could develop into Gold Glove caliber, he need to harness his incredible arm...which he has made strides on this year.

I think he did become homer-happy...I don't really buy the "support" argument in lineups...but for whatever reason I think he got into bad habits. My larger concern is he's a mistake hitter...I don't really see him handling good pitches. Which makes me think he will top out.

Perhaps this is "what he is" as SG suggests. In which case, it's not bad, but still disappointing. He has 40 HR potential if he can develop plate discipline and a better approach. Last off-season he was saying all the right things about OBP and walks...hopefully that will continue.

And, yes, of course he shouldnt be starting behind Pie.

[LookinUp]

I have no issues with his defense. I think he could develop into Gold Glove caliber, he need to harness his incredible arm...which he has made strides on this year.

I think he did become homer-happy...I don't really buy the "support" argument in lineups...but for whatever reason I think he got into bad habits. My larger concern is he's a mistake hitter...I don't really see him handling good pitches. Which makes me think he will top out.

Perhaps this is "what he is" as SG suggests. In which case, it's not bad, but still disappointing. He has 40 HR potential if he can develop plate discipline and a better approach. Last off-season he was saying all the right things about OBP and walks...hopefully that will continue.

And, yes, of course he shouldnt be starting behind Pie.

Hitting is a constant evolution that takes natural talent, skill to apply that talent in the best way and discipline to be able to repeat that skill.

I think your post above is correct insofar as it highlights that he's lost discipline in his approach. This happens to a lot of players, particularly young players, and it causes long hot and cold stretches. As they mature, the better players minimize these stretches.

I think Jones is just in a cold stretch. I also think he'll continue to work so these cold stretches are minimized. He may be what SG said, which is nice, but he may still be better than that.

On Pie...he's still going primarily against righties. His stats still represent cherry-picked opportunities. I'm glad we're handling him this way, but I don't think we should over rate him based on his recent success. He's still much farther away from being a finished produce than Jones, who actually has to face all pitchers in a key part of the lineup, IMO.

[ejf1025]

Hitting is a constant evolution that takes natural talent, skill to apply that talent in the best way and discipline to be able to repeat that skill.

I think your post above is correct insofar as it highlights that he's lost discipline in his approach. This happens to a lot of players, particularly young players, and it causes long hot and cold stretches. As they mature, the better players minimize these stretches.

I think Jones is just in a cold stretch. I also think he'll continue to work so these cold stretches are minimized. He may be what SG said, which is nice, but he may still be better than that.

On Pie...he's still going primarily against righties. His stats still represent cherry-picked opportunities. I'm glad we're handling him this way, but I don't think we should over rate him based on his recent success. He's still much farther away from being a finished produce than Jones, who actually has to face all pitchers in a key part of the lineup, IMO.

Yes...young players do go hot/cold. But I'm talking approact. I compare Jones to Reimold.

IMO, Reimold has consistently had great ABs. I really like his approach...he stays in on sliders diving away...he fouls off tough pitches and seems to stretch ABs longer (queue: stat guy coming in and showing me that he doesnt see more pitches...ha). He rarely looks bad up there.

Jones is different. He's got natural ability spilling over, but he still can't seem to handle hard breaking stuff--particularly in the lower, left quadrant. When he's behind in the count, I really don't see him battling back to 2-2, 3-2 counts. He's getting put away.

It's not just that he's streaky, I expect that from youngsters...I just don't like the approach.

Tons of room to grow and change...I like him overall...he's an asset. But I do worry.

[El Gordo]

That says that he's probably a little above average for a MLB center fielder. Which means he's a damn fine fielder.

Of course compared to beer league softball players. Compared to ML CF it means he's a little above average. Not in the upper echelons of ML CF. Is that the way you would describe him Dottore? An upper echelon CF?

[El Gordo]

First of all, I said upper echelon POTENTIAL...I know, it would require you to read and understand the words but try it.

Look, it is pretty obvious that you put a lot of weight in these stats and that's fine...But it is also obvious that you are a poor judge of talent and that you don't really understand how to use the stats.

It's pretty obvious to me that you live in a fantasy world and use stats to buffer this world of yours from from reality.

[JBugaboo]

All this Jones talk just goes to show why we need a big bat in the first place. It's so players like Jones don't feel like they have to carry the team and press at the plate.

Couldn't agree more.

The question I have is: is trading for Adrian Gonzales or Prince Fielder worth giving up valuable pieces, instead of signing a Thome, Vlad or Abreu to a short term deal? Bear in mind, these three hitters outclass any veteran the Orioles have signed in the past few years, in spite of their age.

I have to think with MacPhail's comments that his eyes are pointed towards the FA class of 2011. As are mine.

[JBugaboo]

Re: Jonesy

If I'm correct, the war of words regarding Adam Jones' worth boils down to whether or not he should be shopped for our "big bat".

Starting CF - AL East

Cabrera, Melky (+ Gardner)

Ellsbury, Jacoby

Jones, Adam

Upton, BJ

Wells, Vernon

...going by production this season, Jones is the best CF in our division despite his recent slump. That may be the only position where we have the #1 player in the division.

So how about the rest of MLB? How easy is it to replace Jones?

Anderson, Brian (+ Podsednik, Wise)

Granderson, Curtis

Gomez, Carlos (+ Span)

Maier, Mitch (+ whatever)

Sizemore, Grady

Byrd, Marlon

Davis, Rajai (+ Sweeney)

Gutierrez, Franklin

Hunter, Torii

...we're through the AL, and I'd be content swapping Jones with 5/13 other teams (Granderson, Sizemore, Byrd, Gutierrez, Hunter). But Byrd and especially Hunter are on the wrong side of 30. Hunter is the only CF in the league who completely outclasses Jones with the bat. A majority of these players are milling around 90-110 OPS+.

On to the supposedly weaker league:

Beltran, Carlos (+ Pagan)

McLouth, Nate (+ Church, Diaz, Schaefer)

Morgan, Nyjer (+ Harris)

Ross, Cody

Victorino, Shane

Bourn, Michael

Cameron, Mike

Fukodome, Kosuke (+ Johnson)

McCutheon, Andrew (+McLouth)

Rasmus, Colby

Taveras, Willy (+ whatever)

Fowler, Dexter

Gwynn, Tony Jr (+ Hairston)

Kemp, Matt

Rowand, Aaron

Young, Chris (+ whatever)

The CFers in the NL are producing much better than in the AL. It looks like 10/16 starters are doing as well or better than Jones (Beltran, Bourn, Cameron, Fowler, Fukodome, Kemp, McCutcheon, McLouth, Ross, Victorino).

Combine the two, and you get 15/29 starting CF. That's basically half the league performing to Jones' standards or better. And in many cases where the CF isn't performing to Jones' standards, the player has been platooning anyway.

Of course, this is just a quick look through the league without in-depth sabermetrics or age/contract situations. It sure looks to me like Jones is far from irreplaceable... but in reality you can trim the list down to about 8-10 comparable young players with talent.

[DrungoHazewood]

Of course compared to beer league softball players. Compared to ML CF it means he's a little above average. Not in the upper echelons of ML CF. Is that the way you would describe him Dottore? An upper echelon CF?

No, he's a very good defender compared to all major league outfielders, Il Capitano. To be an average major league center fielder you have to be good, by definition. Just being an average MLB center fielder is an asset to a good team, especially when your glove isn't your only positive.

You don't have to be Franklin Gutierrez to be a positive contributor to a defense. Jones is either the best or the 2nd-best outfielder on the Orioles, certainly better than Markakis and miles ahead of Reimold and Scott.

[Hans Moleman]

Re: Jonesy

The CFers in the NL are producing much better than in the AL. It looks like 10/16 starters are doing as well or better than Jones (Beltran, Bourn, Cameron, Fowler, Fukodome, Kemp, McCutcheon, McLouth, Ross, Victorino).

Combine the two, and you get 15/29 starting CF. That's basically half the league performing to Jones' standards or better. And in many cases where the CF isn't performing to Jones' standards, the player has been platooning anyway.

No way I take Fukodome, Cameron, or Beltran over Jones.