Did Scott hit the Warehouse?

[MarCakes21]

Out of my frustration for the 382' being listed as the distance of the home run on hittracker, I sent an email to the webmaster and asked him to look it over. Here is what I got in return:

Thanks for the message!

The Scott homer was a bit frustrating, in that the video did not provide a side view that showed the actual landing of the ball (I will check again on both feeds to see if I can find such a view, but so far I haven't been able to). So, I can't say for sure whether it hit the warehouse or not, my projection is that it came a few feet short of that.

However, your message led me to go check the trajectory, and in doing so I realized that I did misplot the landing point. I fixed the distance, that one went 442 feet. Thanks very much for pointing out the probelm!

Greg Rybarczyk

Hit Tracker

So it has been/will be updated to be listed at 442'. And if its right down the line, I believe it was mentioned that it is 432' from home to the warehouse. We will see though if they get any more information for us. Good work by Hit Tracker!

[TyCobb]

It certainly can be. If they are estimating there as being a lot of wind, but then it just happened that the 10-15 mph wind died down for a bit, that would make a huge difference.

If their estimates for the trajectory are off, that would make a huge difference.

There are all sorts of places things can get wrong, usually those things will cancel out, but its also very possibly to have them all go wrong in the same direction, greatly increasing or decreasing the estimate from the actual distance.

Holy smokes......

HitTracker changed it.

442 ft bomb now.

[Mackus]

Oh sure. It probably is off the +/- 5 feet. But it sure isn't off by 20/30/40 feet.

Thanks for the message!

The Scott homer was a bit frustrating, in that the video did not provide a side view that showed the actual landing of the ball (I will check again on both feeds to see if I can find such a view, but so far I haven't been able to). So, I can't say for sure whether it hit the warehouse or not, my projection is that it came a few feet short of that.

However, your message led me to go check the trajectory, and in doing so I realized that I did misplot the landing point. I fixed the distance, that one went 442 feet. Thanks very much for pointing out the probelm!

Greg Rybarczyk

Hit Tracker

See, the estimates can be off. Don't take those numbers as facts. The estimate just changed 60 feet.

[TyCobb]

See, the estimates can be off. Don't take those numbers as facts. The estimate just changed 60 feet.

He said he made a mistake on the landing point. That is a pretty important data point.

[MarCakes21]

See, the estimates can be off. Don't take those numbers as facts. The estimate just changed 60 feet.

Yea, the thing is, he said that it didn't hit the warehouse, yet his projection has it drawn past the warehouse.

[Mackus]

He said he made a mistake on the landing point. That is a pretty important data point.

Right, it was an estimate based on a variety of data points which themselves are estimated. You were considering it a stone cold fact when it was just an estimate. That number still could be off from where the ball actually landed. All he did was change one of the "measureables" which are really just "estimateables" and it changed the total estimate 60 feet. What other data points are off?

[TyCobb]

Yea, the thing is, he said that it didn't hit the warehouse, yet his projection has it drawn past the warehouse.

It Projects where it would land on field level.

[Aglets]

When someone's point that they are arguing is,

"It's easy to make mistakes with these estimates, they could be significantly off...."

And this is your counter argument, I think you're just reaffirming everything the other person said.

He said he made a mistake on the landing point. That is a pretty important data point.

Indeed there are a lot of important data points. If a mistake is made in collecting said data.......then the estimate's accuracy will suffer. A good scientist uses data to form conclusions.......but if he or she reaches a conclusion that does not agree with common sense or what his eye observes......generally the first conclusion is rejected and the situation re-evaluated.

[JTrea81]

I find it hard to believe with all the people on Eutaw St. during the game, including the Orioles employees running the booths, that nobody saw where exactly the thing landed.

You would think somebody would come forward and post where the thing hit on some forum...

[Aglets]

I'm not saying its exactly right, but I will say that here in upstate new york, we get bad snow storms that are 8-10 inches of snow. When I was a kid they used to be 36 inches of snow, every day.

My new favorite post. Snow rules and so do non sequiturs.

[MarCakes21]

It Projects where it would land on field level.

Hmm...Well I guess that it could easily be backtracked out to see if it hit the warehouse. But obviously this isn't exact, so I'm not sure that there is much that will be truth from this.

[RShack]

Its still an estimate. They can't get detailed enough information to get an exact number.

Sure they can. All they need to do is just leave the dang camera on. They've got one out there. They show people walking up and down Eutaw St. They show people running around a few seconds *after* the ball landed. All they need to do is leave the camera on, feeding a hard drive. There is nothing difficult or expensive about this. If they did that, then for balls hit to Eutaw St, they could tell you exactly.

[MarCakes21]

I'm just surprised how nice and responsive the guy was to relook his calculations and see if the spot was off. I'm now glad that I emailed him to see what information he had for me.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Somebody needs to bring all this to the attention of the Front Office, if that hasn't happened already. It shouldn't take long to find witnesses if they start looking at tonight's game, since there are surely people who are there around that gate at every game. In a sense it's a trivial question, but it also is potentially part of the lore of the ballpark, and since they have gone to the trouble to festoon Eutaw St with the brass markers, this is something they should get right.

After all the whole ballpark is a subtle homage to baseball lore and tradition.

And hey, we are talking about an Oriole HR. I wouldn't care nearly as much if Tex or Papi or had hit it.

[Miller192]

I think it hit off the back of Flanagan's head.