This is "blow it up"

[geschinger]

Wait a sec... let's review what really happened in ATL... Smoltz was a 1-time steal at the trading deadline... it may be the single best use of the trading deadline by anybody ever, but it happened 4 years before ATL became good... other than that, here's what happened:

Bobby Cox went from manager of TOR to GM of ATL... and he spent a handful of years focused on the farm system... for the most part, the man could not pull the trigger on a decent trade... he just couldn't do it... the team was bad, and the team stayed bad... Cox was good at feeding the farm system but not good at getting proper ML guys... in 1990, the team was in last place Yet Again, and there was nothing to make you feel hopeful...

In 1990, they gave the GM job to Schuerholz and limited Cox's duties to the dugout... Schuerholz made a small number of trades for the perfect non-star players, and the P staff came on like gangbusters... and they went from Worst to First... it was the combination of three non-stars who were 30+ (Pendleton, Bream, Leibrandt) and provided leadership, combined with the sudden success of young P's... that's what did it... if you look at their 90 and 91 rosters, there's a whole lot in common... and nothing about the starting lineup is scary in either year... what happened was that they got a GM who recognized which parts they needed, and he got them... this is something that Cox-as-GM could not do, and it's something that Flan/Duq have been unable to do... only time will tell if MacPhail can, I don't pretend to know.

They had the farm system to make the jump, we aren't there yet. Trading some of the existing core for young talent will get us to a point a lot closer to where the Braves were. They had youngsters like David Justice and Ron Gant on the cusp and ready to be impact players. Then they had a second wave of home grown players like Chipper Jones, Javy Lopez and Ryan Klesko to contribute. They had a young core to add to. For the most part our core players to build around will likely be on the decline when guys like Wieters, Rowell, Snyder etc... are ready to contribute.

[Witchy_Chick]

The model is Atlanta...The "quickness" of it is where you use the Marlins.

I agree with you (I think). The Marlins model is what we should use to jump-start the rebuild. The Braves (or Twins or A's) model is what we need to sustain the minors and the big club.

Furthermore, I don't think we should model ourselves wholly after the Braves/Twins/A's. We need to look at those organizations and take the best parts of what they are doing and incorporate them into our plan. For example, the Twins routinely extend their young players and buy out their arb/FA (first/second) years. We need to be doing this also -- risk be damned. The A's have no problem with buying low on older players only to let them go after moderate or high success in order to gain draft picks (see: Thomas, Frank). The Braves trade from strength in order to acquire the pieces they need for the short-term (and perhaps long-term; see: Salty for Tex trade).

Meanwhile -- we talk a good game about building up the minors, but then throw that all out the window by signing FA relief pitchers and burning our draft picks. UGH. "The plan" varies from year to year.

But they assembled this horrible bullpen. I mean, no one knew they would be this bad. But, they signed 3 high-priced guys...1 of whom most people here didn't want. As a result, we came into this season with a steady closer, 2 nice additions, 1 very questionable addition, and a bunch of question marks in the pen. We knew Parrish wasn't any good...he's never been good.

Well, he was pretty damn good in April when everyone was calling him "The Truth" and wanting him to close in place of Chris Ray.

Witchy

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with you (I think). The Marlins model is what we should use to jump-start the rebuild. The Braves (or Twins or A's) model is what we need to sustain the minors and the big club.

Furthermore, I don't think we should model ourselves wholly after the Braves/Twins/A's. We need to look at those organizations and take the best parts of what they are doing and incorporate them into our plan. For example, the Twins routinely extend their young players and buy out their arb/FA (first/second) years. We need to be doing this also -- risk be damned. The A's have no problem with buying low on older players only to let them go after moderate or high success in order to gain draft picks (see: Thomas, Frank). The Braves trade from strength in order to acquire the pieces they need for the short-term (and perhaps long-term; see: Salty for Tex trade).

Meanwhile -- we talk a good game about building up the minors, but then throw that all out the window by signing FA relief pitchers and burning our draft picks. UGH. "The plan" varies from year to year.

One of the big keys is maximizing draft picks. They need to approach anyone who's likely to be a compensation free agent with as much detachment and objectivity as possible, and offer arbitration and let them walk unless they're almost guaranteed to be long-term contributors at a reasonable salary. And they need to structure contracts with this in mind - no options or other clauses that impede the collection of extra draft picks.

And never, ever, ever sign mid-tier, non-big-impact Type A free agents unless the alternative is to go into the season literally without a player at a position. So in other words, never. Ever. Just don't do it.

Well, he was pretty damn good in April when everyone was calling him "The Truth" and wanting him to close in place of Chris Ray.

I'm not everyone. I had a lie detector. It was called six years of performance records.

[clapdiddy]

I agree with you (I think). The Marlins model is what we should use to jump-start the rebuild. The Braves (or Twins or A's) model is what we need to sustain the minors and the big club.

Furthermore, I don't think we should model ourselves wholly after the Braves/Twins/A's. We need to look at those organizations and take the best parts of what they are doing and incorporate them into our plan. For example, the Twins routinely extend their young players and buy out their arb/FA (first/second) years. We need to be doing this also -- risk be damned. The A's have no problem with buying low on older players only to let them go after moderate or high success in order to gain draft picks (see: Thomas, Frank). The Braves trade from strength in order to acquire the pieces they need for the short-term (and perhaps long-term; see: Salty for Tex trade).

Meanwhile -- we talk a good game about building up the minors, but then throw that all out the window by signing FA relief pitchers and burning our draft picks. UGH. "The plan" varies from year to year.

Well, he was pretty damn good in April when everyone was calling him "The Truth" and wanting him to close in place of Chris Ray.

Witchy

Great analysis, Witchy. The lost draft picks are the thing that irks me the most. If we were one or two relief pitchers away from contention, it may have been a smart move. Our front office thought that getting those veterans would help out our young starters. I don't necessarily disagree that the bullpen should have been a focus, but it could've been done cheaper.

I like your ideas about signing guys to one-year deals, then letting them walk for picks.

An organization like the O's, with more cash to burn than Oakland, Minn, and Florida, should be able to put a good, competitive team on the field for 93 million dollars.

[Sports Guy]

Yep...No pissing away draft picks.

Our best FO resource is Jordan BY FAR!

Use him.....Let him build the organization his way.

[clapdiddy]

Yep...No pissing away draft picks.

Our best FO resource is Jordan BY FAR!

Use him.....Let him build the organization his way.

I realize that Jordan is a great Scouting Director, but do you think there could be a chance for him to move into a higher position if Duq and/or Flanny are canned at the end of this season?

I'm thinking he needs to be more involved in the decision-making process.

[Fan4Life]

Yep...No pissing away draft picks.

Our best FO resource is Jordan BY FAR!

Use him.....Let him build the organization his way.

We haven't seen any fruit come from this tree yet and the vast majority of our prospects were a disappointment this year. I don't know what to think here..

[Sports Guy]

We haven't seen any fruit come from this tree yet and the vast majority of our prospects were a disappointment this year. I don't know what to think here..

Like who???????

[Fan4Life]

Like who???????

http://orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=52811

Of our top 10, only Reimold had a truely successful season. I think Brandon Schnyder had a good bouce back season, but I don't think you can consider hitting .280 at lower A ball something to be excited about. As well as every guy we brought up, thus far, Olson, Liz, Hoey, Doyne, have failed rather miserably. So, what's to be excited about? 2 guys we think could be of some use are Knott and House and they aren't even from our organization.

[Dipper9]

http://orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=52811

Of our top 10, only Reimold had a truely successful season. I think Brandon Schnyder had a good bouce back season, but I don't think you can consider hitting .280 at lower A ball something to be excited about. As well as every guy we brought up, thus far, Olson, Liz, Hoey, Doyne, have failed rather miserably. So, what's to be excited about? 2 guys we think could be of some use are Knott and House and they aren't even from our organization.

No worries here, as the Birds have no plans to use these 2 in any significant role (if at all) on this team next year!

[Sports Guy]

http://orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=52811

Of our top 10, only Reimold had a truely successful season. I think Brandon Schnyder had a good bouce back season, but I don't think you can consider hitting .280 at lower A ball something to be excited about. As well as every guy we brought up, thus far, Olson, Liz, Hoey, Doyne, have failed rather miserably. So, what's to be excited about? 2 guys we think could be of some use are Knott and House and they aren't even from our organization.

Erbe and Beato are the only true disappointments IMO and Erbe is still very young.

[BaltimoreTerp]

They had the farm system to make the jump, we aren't there yet. Trading some of the existing core for young talent will get us to a point a lot closer to where the Braves were. They had youngsters like David Justice and Ron Gant on the cusp and ready to be impact players. Then they had a second wave of home grown players like Chipper Jones, Javy Lopez and Ryan Klesko to contribute. They had a young core to add to. For the most part our core players to build around will likely be on the decline when guys like Wieters, Rowell, Snyder etc... are ready to contribute.

But who says Nick Markakis isn't our David Justice?

Who says Rowell, Weiters, and Snyder aren't our Jones, Lopez and Klesko?

Klesko was the only one who was even close at that time, and he only played parts of 1992, and didn't get a real full ML season until 1996. Chipper Jones had a couple at-bats in '93, but wasn't up full-time until '95, nor was Javy Lopez. Andruw Jones wasn't full-time until 1996.

They had players in the system, but we do as well.

[Dr. FLK]

But who says Nick Markakis isn't our David Justice?

Who says Rowell, Weiters, and Snyder aren't our Jones, Lopez and Klesko?

Klesko was the only one who was even close at that time, and he only played parts of 1992, and didn't get a real full ML season until 1996. Chipper Jones had a couple at-bats in '93, but wasn't up full-time until '95, nor was Javy Lopez. Andruw Jones wasn't full-time until 1996.

They had players in the system, but we do as well.

You just named every legit offensive prospect we have. We have no depth in the minors. So, we need every single prospect to pan out. How often does that happen?

[Witchy_Chick]

One of the big keys is maximizing draft picks. They need to approach anyone who's likely to be a compensation free agent with as much detachment and objectivity as possible, and offer arbitration and let them walk unless they're almost guaranteed to be long-term contributors at a reasonable salary. And they need to structure contracts with this in mind - no options or other clauses that impede the collection of extra draft picks.

I don't think it's solely in regards to compensation FAs where they (and us fans) need to have this outlook. The FO, the owner, and the fans need to look at every player as dispassionately as possible. That's more difficult for fans to do, I know. For FO personnel and the on-field manager, having this outlook is critical aspect of their job. No more "fan favorites" or manager's favorites. No more reclamation pitching projects based primarily on Leo's say-so. It's time to start looking at players -- their skills, their "intangibles" (coachability, leadership, etc), their contract status -- as assets and liabilities.

I'm not everyone. I had a lie detector. It was called six years of performance records.

Touché. I'll readily admit that I was fooled. But, I've been a big JP fan for quite a while now.

Witchy

[clapdiddy]

You just named every legit offensive prospect we have. We have no depth in the minors. So, we need every single prospect to pan out. How often does that happen?

Mr. Reimold may not agree with you on that one!