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Better prospect...Bell or Snyder?


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Who is the better prospect  

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  1. 1. Who is the better prospect



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I think that Snyder's AAA stint has turned some people off. If you look at Snyder's AA season compared to Bell's, it matches up nicely since they are the same age. While in AA, though it seems Bell has more power, Snyder actually had the higher slug%, Bell's is somewhere around .520 combined between Bowie and the Dodgers AA team. Then, both of them had about the same separation in OBP, but of course Snyder's was much higher due to the better batting average. Snyder's spread about about 80 points in AA and so was Bell's between the 2 teams.

Who knows how Bell would have done with a promotion to AAA, but Snyder held his own. He still maintained good discipline as well which is a very good thing. But like I said Id rate them equally, but Id lean toward Snyder if I absolutely had to choose 1.....

Perhaps Snyder's stint in AAA has convinced some that he is a worse hitter than he really is. But I would contend that Snyder's stint in AA has convinced more that he is a better hitter than he really is. Run your finger down Snyder's columns for OPS, BABIP, and ISO-P and ask yourself, if you were a statistician, which ones would you consider to be the outliers?

He had a fantastic run in Bowie over 200ish at-bats. You can't take that away from him. He showed pretty steady progress over the last two years which put him back on the map. Snyder's time in AA should show us that he is capable of being an offensive force, but let's be honest: that .404 BABIP is not sustainable, particularly when his LD rate was one of his lowest (15). It artificially inflated both his OBP and SLG, and when pitchers saw the gaudy numbers he was putting up, he started being walked more.

The real Brandon Snyder probably lies somewhere his rather lucky performance in Bowie and his rather unlucky performance in Norfolk.

I still see him settling into somewhere between a .280/.330/.450 and a .300/.360/.500 guy. That's solid but not great production from 1B, and his defense doesn't do much to help his cause. That would be a nice, young, cheap player but not an impact player.

I could see Josh Bell becoming an above average third baseman with the potential for providing middle of the order power.

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Perhaps Snyder's stint in AAA has convinced some that he is a worse hitter than he really is. But I would contend that Snyder's stint in AA has convinced more that he is a better hitter than he really is. Run your finger down Snyder's columns for OPS, BABIP, and ISO-P and ask yourself, if you were a statistician, which ones would you consider to be the outliers?

He had a fantastic run in Bowie over 200ish at-bats. You can't take that away from him. He showed pretty steady progress over the last two years which put him back on the map. Snyder's time in AA should show us that he is capable of being an offensive force, but let's be honest: that .404 BABIP is not sustainable, particularly when his LD rate was one of his lowest (15). It artificially inflated both his OBP and SLG, and when pitchers saw the gaudy numbers he was putting up, he started being walked more.

The real Brandon Snyder probably lies somewhere his rather lucky performance in Bowie and his rather unlucky performance in Norfolk.

I still see him settling into somewhere between a .280/.330/.450 and a .300/.360/.500 guy. That's solid but not great production from 1B, and his defense doesn't do much to help his cause. That would be a nice, young, cheap player but not an impact player.

I could see Josh Bell becoming an above average third baseman with the potential for providing middle of the order power.

Bell has his own set of issues to deal with. Is he a platoon player? He's seeing the best pitching of his life in AA and he's hitting something like .160 from the right side? If he can only hit from the left side, what does that do to his value?

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Bell has his own set of issues to deal with. Is he a platoon player? He's seeing the best pitching of his life in AA and he's hitting something like .160 from the right side? If he can only hit from the left side, what does that do to his value?

Who knows...maybe he will be ok versus lefties batting lefty.

he is still very young, so its not like he can't improve on that and since he does have very good plate discipline, there is a lot of reason to believe he can improve...Just needs to be a 750ish OPS guy from that side of the plate.

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Bell has his own set of issues to deal with. Is he a platoon player? He's seeing the best pitching of his life in AA and he's hitting something like .160 from the right side? If he can only hit from the left side, what does that do to his value?

It's true, this is a legitimate concern. To be fair, you're citing a sample size of 31 ABs. I can't find his previous splits right now but I believe someone posted that they are not so atrocious. He will definitely have to work on this or abandon switch hitting over the next year or so.

Warts aside, he still profiles better than Snyder IMO.

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Bell has his own set of issues to deal with. Is he a platoon player? He's seeing the best pitching of his life in AA and he's hitting something like .160 from the right side? If he can only hit from the left side, what does that do to his value?

This is why I have the two similar. Bell has a higher ceiling for me, better raw power (from the LH side) and better defense, he should stick at 3rd. But Snyder has better bat control, is a better contact hitter and still has a good chunk of potential himself.

Since most people here do better when they have a comparison, if I had to, I'd say Snyder is in the Loney, or Kotchman mold, and Bell reminds me of Beltre.

They are both great prospects in their own right, and if you combined the two, you'd have David Wright, but you can't.

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Brandon Snyder is ten days younger than Josh Bell. That's about as irrelevant as you can get.

While Snyder probably has better bat control and overall hit tool, Bell has much more raw power (and has displayed it with more success), will walk more, plays a more valuable position and looks to be at least average there, while Snyder seems to be an average at best first baseman.

It's a close call as to who will be the better offensive player, although I like Bell's power potential.

It's not really a close call as to who will likely be the the more valuable player. Oh, IMO.

Yeah I forgot I wrote that after I went and checked...They are the same age basically....I guess I forgot he has had 2 birthdays since 07.....

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Perhaps Snyder's stint in AAA has convinced some that he is a worse hitter than he really is. But I would contend that Snyder's stint in AA has convinced more that he is a better hitter than he really is. Run your finger down Snyder's columns for OPS, BABIP, and ISO-P and ask yourself, if you were a statistician, which ones would you consider to be the outliers?

He had a fantastic run in Bowie over 200ish at-bats. You can't take that away from him. He showed pretty steady progress over the last two years which put him back on the map. Snyder's time in AA should show us that he is capable of being an offensive force, but let's be honest: that .404 BABIP is not sustainable, particularly when his LD rate was one of his lowest (15). It artificially inflated both his OBP and SLG, and when pitchers saw the gaudy numbers he was putting up, he started being walked more.

The real Brandon Snyder probably lies somewhere his rather lucky performance in Bowie and his rather unlucky performance in Norfolk.

I still see him settling into somewhere between a .280/.330/.450 and a .300/.360/.500 guy. That's solid but not great production from 1B, and his defense doesn't do much to help his cause. That would be a nice, young, cheap player but not an impact player.

I could see Josh Bell becoming an above average third baseman with the potential for providing middle of the order power.

He walked plenty at AAA too though, it was Bell who walked less as he came here which tells me that he was being pitched around in his previous league. WHen he came to the eastern league, no one knew about him and his OBP dropped about 50 points....

And as for Snyder's high BABIP, I dont know much about the stat other than what it stands for, but if a guy is hitting .360 or whatever he was htiting, isnt his BABIP gonna be higher? What was Wieter's last year when he hit .360?

I think Snyder has the ability to be a .300 hitter like Markakis, I see Bell becoming a .270-.280 guy with the ability to hit 30+ HR's much like Reimold's offensive game with less speed....

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He walked plenty at AAA too though, it was Bell who walked less as he came here which tells me that he was being pitched around in his previous league. WHen he came to the eastern league, no one knew about him and his OBP dropped about 50 points....

And as for Snyder's high BABIP, I dont know much about the stat other than what it stands for, but if a guy is hitting .360 or whatever he was htiting, isnt his BABIP gonna be higher? What was Wieter's last year when he hit .360?

I think Snyder has the ability to be a .300 hitter like Markakis, I see Bell becoming a .270-.280 guy with the ability to hit 30+ HR's much like Reimold's offensive game with less speed....

I think Bell is faster than Reimold.

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He walked plenty at AAA too though, it was Bell who walked less as he came here which tells me that he was being pitched around in his previous league. WHen he came to the eastern league, no one knew about him and his OBP dropped about 50 points....

And as for Snyder's high BABIP, I dont know much about the stat other than what it stands for, but if a guy is hitting .360 or whatever he was htiting, isnt his BABIP gonna be higher? What was Wieter's last year when he hit .360?

I think Snyder has the ability to be a .300 hitter like Markakis, I see Bell becoming a .270-.280 guy with the ability to hit 30+ HR's much like Reimold's offensive game with less speed....

Bell is more likely to translate his walk rate to the majors because of his power. Walk rates tend to reduce from the minors to the majors among hitters with less power.

Of course a hitter's BABIP will be higher if he is hitting for a higher batting average, that's just common sense. But when a hitter is hitting for a very high batting average even though a low percentage of his balls in play are line drives, he will usually see his average regress over time (assuming the line drive rate stays the same).

Hitters certainly have more control over their BABIP than pitchers, which should be intuitively obvious, but the percentage of balls in play that fall for hits should correlate to the type of contact a hitter is making. Over a long enough time frame, they usually do. Over 200 at-bats, someone can only hit line drives for 12 percent of their balls in play and still have 40 percent of balls in play fall for hits. It's very likely, though, that if a player continued to perform the same way he would see fewer of those balls in play fall for hits, dropping his BA, OBP and SLG.

That's why I think Snyder's stint in Bowie was a bit deceptive. He still has good bat control and should hit for a solid average, but IMO it's pretty clear that he was helped out by luck in his half season in AA. Considering his numbers there stand out strongly from the rest of his career, I'd call that a red flag.

EDIT: By the way, to answer your question: Wieter's BABIP in Bowie was .383 (.021 points lower) while his LD rate was 18% (.50 times higher than Snyder's).

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What? Reimolds an above average runner....I thought Bell was pretty slow....But on the same token, I kind of assumed Bell was slow....

Scouting reports that I have read state that Bell is below average in speed (Reimold was above average) and has range issues due to lack of speed and a thick lower half. I haven't seen him, so only know this. Reimold is fast and athletic - Jones even compared him to a "gazelle". I have not heard any such comparison for Bell, though, I do think that he is faster than Snyder (who is pretty slow but not quite Wieters slow).

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To make this an easy comparison. Who would you rather have at 1st base? Because at worst case if Bell's defense is that bad, he could play 1st. If it anywhere close, Bell should win hands down since he has the potential to play a decent 3rd base. I know Snyder "could", but I don't think that is an option now.

I would rather have Bell at 1st, so because of position eligibility I go with Bell. If Snyder can play 2nd, that could change everything, but that isn't going to happen in the near future.

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To make this an easy comparison. Who would you rather have at 1st base? Because at worst case if Bell's defense is that bad, he could play 1st. If it anywhere close, Bell should win hands down since he has the potential to play a decent 3rd base. I know Snyder "could", but I don't think that is an option now.

I would rather have Bell at 1st, so because of position eligibility I go with Bell. If Snyder can play 2nd, that could change everything, but that isn't going to happen in the near future.

Well, would you rather have a guy hitting .300 20 100 at 1B or a guy hitting .270 30 100? To me thats what it will come down to. But IMO people are selling Snyder short, IMO he is a perfect candidate to pull a Youkilis or a AGonz and blow up and become a 30+ HR hitter. His power was coming along fine in AA and would have hit 20 HR's there this year IMO, Harbor Park destoryed his power.

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