Better prospect...Bell or Snyder?

[Sports Guy]

Well, would you rather have a guy hitting .300 20 100 at 1B or a guy hitting .270 30 100? To me thats what it will come down to. But IMO people are selling Snyder short, IMO he is a perfect candidate to pull a Youkilis or a AGonz and blow up and become a 30+ HR hitter. His power was coming along fine in AA and would have hit 20 HR's there this year IMO, Harbor Park destoryed his power.

What are the OBP? OPS?

I bet Bell's would be higher and that obviously makes him more valuable.

[Frobby]

I voted Bell, but not with a high degree of confidence. Snyder's amazing stats at Bowie followed by his mediocre ones at Norfolk leave me scratching my head. If he'd stayed at Bowie all year, it seems likely he's have put up numbers better than Bell's. But what was it about AAA competition that he found so tough? And why was he so bad on the road in AAA (.557 road OPS)?

As to Bell, who knows what happens when he goes to AAA? But it appears he can stick at 3b, and his power certainly is real. So, I think he's got a pretty good shot at being an above average offensive 3B, whereas I'm not sure Snyder's an above average 1B, unless he reverses what he did in AAA.

It will be fun to follow both in the AFL.

[allstar1579]

To make this an easy comparison. Who would you rather have at 1st base? Because at worst case if Bell's defense is that bad, he could play 1st. If it anywhere close, Bell should win hands down since he has the potential to play a decent 3rd base. I know Snyder "could", but I don't think that is an option now.

I would rather have Bell at 1st, so because of position eligibility I go with Bell. If Snyder can play 2nd, that could change everything, but that isn't going to happen in the near future.

Bell's defense is fine at 3rd, but there's no telling if he'd be able to play first. People think it's just interchangable on the corners, but not all 3B can be 1B.

[Oface]

Love this topic.

As all-star and BowieMike can attest to, I've had a chance to see both on an extended basis this season.

Bell:

113 AB

.301/.352/.584/.936

.325 BABIP

42% ground ball

11.4% line drive

He saw about 12 percent more fastballs in Bowie than he did in Chattanooga, which is most likely the explanation for his higher rates across the board than what he produced in the Southern League (50 point rise in OPS).

Obviously we know the swing from the left side is far ahead of his right, he would not even dispute it at this point. The righty-swing tends to get a bit loopy and makes him pretty susceptible at times, but it is not as if his power completely disappears from the right side. He need to shorten his swing and work on making contact, which could get him up into the range of being a .750-.775 OPS guy from the right side as he matures.

There is only one person who I saw this season who had a better power stroke from the left-side than Bell (Akron – Weglarz). I project Bell to have at least 65 power (roughly 25-30 HR per season). His bat from the left side WILL play in the major leagues right now if need be, I have no doubt about it.

You can tell Bell has a passion for this game, he’s dropped a ton of body weight and plans on losing between 10-15 pounds this offseason to better prepare him for next season. He is one of the most laid back players I’ve ever seen, and it does not look like things bother him. Make no mistake, nobody is out there trying harder than this guy. With that said, I’d take Brandon over him in this regard because Snyder eats, sleeps, lives and breathes the game…which is rare. This is not a knock on Bell, just a testament to Snyder.

The footwork at third improved in the short time he was with Bowie, he got better at charging the ball and his arm grades out about a true 75-80 in terms of velocity. But his footwork assures me Bell will have the ability to stay at 3B long-term, he has a good understanding of the position and knows what he needs to do in order to get better. My personal opinion is that not only will he be average defensively, but he has the ability to be pretty well above average at the position.

It won’t be long before Bell lands in Baltimore, I truly feel he will be with the team by June 1, especially if the O’s are struggling to find production from the position early in the season (Wiggington?).

Brandon Snyder

199 AB

.345/.421/.597/1.018

.403 BABIP

44.6% ground ball

15.9% line drive

We never saw Brandon go into a slump, he started hitting the minute he got to Bowie and quite frankly it never stopped. One thing I would have liked to have seen is him go into a 4-5 game slump and seen how he reacted, but it really never happened. What makes him a better pure hitter than Bell is his ability to hit to all fields with power. He takes the pitches where they are and his main priority is to put a line drive swing on the ball. It will lead to less home runs, but is also something that should keep his strikeout rate somewhat reasonable as he rises through the system.

Obviously his BABIP is a bit ridiculous and is something that will not last forever, but he certainly showed 2008 was no fluke. I rate his power around a 50, but with his great doubles power he has the chance to be a legit .800 OPS guy at the next level. He will not chase as many pitches as Bell, he has great strike-zone judgment and knows how to attack pitchers and what he’s looking for in every at-bat.

The problem is, he will ALWAYS need to be producing at an above average level defensively to lock down a starting job in Baltimore. He struggles with his footwork at first, but after watching him work day in and day out I think he can he can be average over time. He is not as athletic as Bell but is more of an effort guy, he will put in the work to make himself average at 1B but will never be more than that.

I cannot imagine the decision to move him to 3B is a good thing, I think it is a clear indication they don’t feel he can be a starting 1B. I can certainly see where they’re coming from, because unless you’re a perennial .900 OPS guy your spot will always be in question unless your defense is well above average.

If I’m choosing between the two in terms of impact at the big league level, it’s Bell by a wide margin. His ability to hit for power and play solid defense at a premium position puts him above any other position player prospect in the Orioles system, including Waring. Bell has the potential to be a top-level 3B if he continues to control his body and improve his defense at third. I can tell you first hand the Dodgers know full well what the gave up to get Sherrill, and while it worked out for both teams the Orioles will be reaping the long-term benefits for years to come.

[Frobby]

Love this topic.

As all-star and BowieMike can attest to, I've had a chance to see both on an extended basis this season.....

Where have you been all my life? That was a fantastic post. I would love to hear your opinion of what other players you've seen at Bowie who you think are likely to be good major league players.

[RVAbird]

Love this topic.

Who are you? This was a great post (and not just because I agree completely with the conclusions).

Sounds like you've seen these kids a good deal. Thanks for the info.

[allstar1579]

Who are you? This was a great post (and not just because I agree completely with the conclusions).

Sounds like you've seen these kids a good deal. Thanks for the info.

He's a well-informed regular in Bowie

Piggy-backing on that, I think that Bell's struggles from the right side are tied to his stance, but like Oface said, his bat is a bit loopier and slower from that side. The Dodgers really had to work on him not rocking back in forth in his stance, which he still does from the RH side, but I think the bigger issue I noticed is he can't hit offspeed stuff on the outside half from that side. I saw a few pitchers throw him nothing but outside curves and sliders when he was hitting from the RH side, which means it's not just me who noticed either.

Overall, I think I like Bell a tiny bit more because of the power potential, but because of the struggles against lefties (and the problems we already have there as a team) are what makes it such a close call for me.

[allstar1579]

Does this really have anything to do with comparing Snyder & Bell as prospects? The strengths and weaknesses of the team should play no part in who is the better prospect. No?

Yes. We can't hit lefties as a team, means we will see more lefties, means he won't be as effective, where Snyder wouldn't have as bad as a problem.

[GoOrioles123]

These prospects really arent close. Snyder is a nice prospect, and his upside is very limited. Nobody is going to get super excited over a Ryan Garko clone. Bell on the other hand has enormous upside with a more broader set of skills.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Brandon Snyder

199 AB

.345/.421/.597/1.018

.403 BABIP

44.6% ground ball

15.9% line drive

Obviously his BABIP is a bit ridiculous and is something that will not last forever, but he certainly showed 2008 was no fluke. I rate his power around a 50, but with his great doubles power he has the chance to be a legit .800 OPS guy at the next level.

I cannot imagine the decision to move him to 3B is a good thing, I think it is a clear indication they don’t feel he can be a starting 1B. I can certainly see where they’re coming from, because unless you’re a perennial .900 OPS guy your spot will always be in question unless your defense is well above average.

Superb post and a highly credible scouting report. Many thanks.

Re: Snyder's BABIP at AA -- yes .403 is ridiculous, but he sustained .366 over 465 PA in Frederick, .350 BABIP over 500 PA the season before at Delmarva, and .347 in his short season in 2005. Only in his injury year (06) was the BABIP somewhat pedestrian (.319). So .403 wasn't hugely out of line.

And look at Norfolk this year:

290 PA

.249/.318/.356 (.674)

Produced out of:

27.0 p.c. line drives

39.7 p.c. ground balls

33.3 FO (4.9 p.c. IFF)

Come on now... The guy hits 27 p.c. liners, 40 p.c. grounders, and ends up with a .249 BA/.321 BABIP? That's outrageously bad luck, as great a deviation on the bad luck side as the .403 BABIP is on the good luck side in Bowie.

Frobby asked what was the difference between AA and AAA. My answer is that luck and park effects probably account for most of the disparity. In fact, considering that 27 p.c. of his balls at AAA were line drives, I'd guess that if you just saw the ball leave the bat and followed it until it reached the edge of the OF grass, you'd say that he was a hell of an impressive hitter, probably more so in Norfolk than in Bowie.

[weams]

Why? 'Cause chicks dig the long ball...

[RVAbird]

Superb post and a highly credible scouting report. Many thanks.

Re: Snyder's BABIP at AA -- yes .403 is ridiculous, but he sustained .366 over 465 PA in Frederick, .350 BABIP over 500 PA the season before at Delmarva, and .347 in his short season in 2005. Only in his injury year (06) was the BABIP somewhat pedestrian (.319). So .403 wasn't hugely out of line.

And look at Norfolk this year:

290 PA

.249/.318/.356 (.674)

Produced out of:

27.0 p.c. line drives

39.7 p.c. ground balls

33.3 FO (4.9 p.c. IFF)

Come on now... The guy hits 27 p.c. liners, 40 p.c. grounders, and ends up with a .249 BA/.321 BABIP? That's outrageously bad luck, as great a deviation on the bad luck side as the .403 BABIP is on the good luck side in Bowie.

Frobby asked what was the difference between AA and AAA. My answer is that luck and park effects probably account for most of the disparity. In fact, considering that 27 p.c. of his balls at AAA were line drives, I'd guess that if you just saw the ball leave the bat and followed it until it reached the edge of the OF grass, you'd say that he was a hell of an impressive hitter, probably more so in Norfolk than in Bowie.

Snyder's production in AAA looks to be partially the product of bad luck. Not outrageously bad luck, but bad luck. His AA numbers seem inflated due to good luck. Not outrageously good luck, but good luck nonetheless.

You claim that a .403 BABIP isn't "out of line" with his .350ish career line. Well, if his BABIP were .350 on the season instead of .403, his OPS would be a good 100ish points less. Probably worse. Not quite sure how you can say that was in line with his career numbers.

What I was trying to say in my earlier post was that while snyder was somewhat unlucky in Norfolk, he was lucky in Bowie.

The real Snyder probably lies in between: a guy whose offensive production is similar to Bell, but with less power and more average.

Defense and positional value considered, Bell is the better prospect.

[Arthur_Bryant]

You claim that a .403 BABIP isn't "out of line" with his .350ish career line. Well, if his BABIP were .350 on the season instead of .403, his OPS would be a good 100ish points less. Probably worse. Not quite sure how you can say that was in line with his career numbers.

What I was trying to say in my earlier post was that while snyder was somewhat unlucky in Norfolk, he was lucky in Bowie.

The real Snyder probably lies in between: a guy whose offensive production is similar to Bell, but with less power and more average.

Defense and positional value considered, Bell is the better prospect.

I plead guilty to overstatement, but I do think that his "natural" BABIP is still quite high, and that he can sustain .350 or a little more. I believe we will see an impressive hitting machine when he gets to Baltimore.

I do agree that Bell is the better prospect, though I sure would like to see the platoon issue worked out ASAP.

[RVAbird]

I plead guilty to overstatement, but I do think that his "natural" BABIP is still quite high, and that he can sustain .350 or a little more. I believe we will see an impressive hitting machine when he gets to Baltimore.

I do agree that Bell is the better prospect, though I sure would like to see the platoon issue worked out ASAP.

Looks like we agree on all counts. It's good to be able to have this discussion.

[hoosiers]

It appears Snyder performed better at Bowie pretty much across the board - higher OPS, better K/PA, better BB/PA and, of course, better K/AB.

I am impressed that Snyder built on his 2008 Frederick campaign with a higher OPS and substantially better K/BB and BB/AB (6.3% to 11.8%). Even the Norfolk ratios for K/BB and BB/AB were better at Norfolk than Frederick. Snyder even finished the last 10 games at Norfolk with 7 BBs in 39 PAs. Snyder's K/PA ratio worsened as he moved up at each level, but he did not hit at Norfolk - something he had been doing for a while prior to June 09 and something the BABIP guys hint had some poor luck - though I am a fan of neither BABIP nor claiming luck is involved in anyone's results.

Despite Snyder's superior effort at Bowie, there seems to be some consensus that Bell is on a higher arc and will show much more power than Snyder down the road. There also seems to be some affinity for "the new guy" while people may retain substantial doubts about Snyder due to the slow start to his career in 2006/7.

Bell entered the year the number 7 prospect in a system perceived as weak by (23rd overall) by BA. Snyder was the ninth prospect in the ninth system. Not much of a disparity there, IMO.

It's close, IMO. I've been carrying the Snyder banner for two years now - sometimes almost by myself while a large majority were still raving that Rowell was better than Snyder - and hesitate to abandon him now. I believe Snyder was off to a mediocre start in Frederick in 2008 and then came on strong. I believe Brandon will improve upon the BB and K ratios next year and return to his strong contact ways in Norfolk to plus results.

All that said, Bell may also be prepared for take-off next season and I think his plus power may prove the difference - as well as provide more comfort of a better major league career. We'll see. I still have a lot of faith in Snyder's bat and his upside.